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élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière


La prévision a changé
2009-08-31 15:45:00
 


 
Profil de circonscription

candidats:

Domm, Richard

Fredette, Tanya

Gourde, Gaston

Gourde, Jacques

Larouche, Nicole

Député:
Jacques Gourde

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • levis-et-chutes-de-la-chaudiere (107/239 Polls)
  • lotbiniere-lerable (67/155 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


  •  


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 29 Oliver May
    173.176.6.20
    I think the Orange wave from Quebec City will reach this far. I have been in this riding once a week since the writ was dropped. I have seen one (1) NDP poster and zero (0) Liberal posters. The CPC and BQ have money and organizations to put up signs but in Quebec that isn't as important as momentum and this wave is big enough to sweep the entire St. Lawrence valley.
    11 04 27 Stéphane Gaudet
    66.130.172.171
    Sondage Axiome mené du 14 au 16 avril mais publié seulement ce matin (27 avril), soit 11 jours plus tard !
    PCC 35,4 BQ 28,7 NPD 23,3 LIB 11,5
    Résultats comparables au sondage mené dans le comté voisin, Lévis-Bellechasse.
    Ici aussi, le PCC semble résister à la vague orange, mais qu'en est-il 11 jours plus tard ? Le NPD a certainement continué à progresser. Assez pour menacer le député Gourde ? Peut-être, mais je maintiens une prédiction pour le PCC dans ce comté du ‘Québec tranquille’ (Pierre Drouilly)au vieux fond bleu et créditiste. Je vois mal un parti de gauche l'emporter dans une région si conservatrice. Mais le NPD ne sera pas loin derrière.
    11 04 26 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    65.92.25.58
    We know that logic would dictate a CPC win but they're down to 14% in Quebec polls. What were the CPC polling in '04? Quebecers have no trouble tossing out incumbents when the winds of change start to blow.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    One of the strongest Tory ridings in Quebec. Despite the Tories weakness in Quebec, I don't see them getting wiped out thus they may very well lose other Quebec seats, but not this one.
    11 04 14 Oliver May
    173.176.6.20
    I have only seen Conservative and Bloc posters in this riding (Which is pretty vast - but I do go to St. Croix once a week).
    Should be interesting as they have the same family name.
    Conservatives should hold this unless something strange happens in the next two weeks.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    One of the stronger Tory ridings in Quebec thus unless Tory support collapses in the province which is not impossible, it should stay Tory.
    11 03 06 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    A January 2011 Segma poll projection shows a fairly close race here, with the Cons at 40% and the BQ at 35%.
    http://www.punditsguide.ca/img/Segma_QueCity_2011_Jan21-14_byRid.jpg
    Will the recent decision by the Cons not to fund the Quebec City arena take away that 5% advantage?
    09 09 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    74.13.72.184
    Quebec votes can be very fickle, more so than in other places in the country and people very often forget that. We're not saying that Gourde will lose, just that if CPC numbers tank again in Quebec (they've recently clawed themselves up to about 20%) this could be vulnerable. Not for the moment though.
    09 08 30 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    While his total dropped from '06 to '08, Gourde still retained a more than 11,000 vote lead. More than enough to keep this seat in the Tory column.



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