11 05 01	expat 209.105.131.192
The NDP should eke out a narrow victory here over the Bloc in the race for the open seat being vacated by Serge Menard. Last time out, it was Bloc 46%, Liberal 25%, Conservative 14%, and NDP 12%. With polls on the last day continuing to show the NDP draining betweem 1/4 and 1/3 of the vote from each other other parties, it should provide them with enough votes to reach about 35% of the vote, while the Bloc will pull in just over 30%. Running a local tax attorney who has previously been the NDP candidate in Laval, the NDP should prevail. Had Menard run again, the Bloc would have been more likely to hold onto the seat, but in a wave election, they are likely to go down this year.
	11 05 01	Stéphane Gaudet 66.130.172.171
Ce comté francophone et de classe moyenne de la banlieue nord de Montréal devrait élire un député néo-démocrate, si mes chiffres sont bons. Un swing de 16,5% suffirait, et les sondages prévoient plutôt un swing de 20% au Québec. La vague orange emporte Marc-Aurèle Fortin, le Bloc aurait peut-être eu de meilleures chances de le conserver si Serge Ménard était resté.
	11 05 01	John McDonnell 96.232.17.11
With both the Liberal and BQ vote draining into the NDP, this riding would easily fall to the NDP in a 30-seat scenario. Threehundredeight's estimates have the NDP neck and neck here under the assumption of a 31 point take for the NDP, which is almost certainly an underestimate.
	11 03 29	WAC 204.15.39.90
While I don't disagree with M. Lunn's conclusions I'm afraid he has it a little backwards. Historically the polls on the North shore around Bois-des-Fillon, Rosemere and Ste-Therese have all been more kind to the Liberals than the polls in the Vimont Laval area of this riding where the Bloc strength is located. There are areas of Laval which are competitive, this particular section of Laval that's included in this riding is and was historically staunchy Bloquiste.
	11 03 28	M.Lunn 174.116.190.108
While Laval is somewhat competitive if the Liberals can improve their numbers in Quebec, the Northern suburbs are staunchly Bloc and there is no way Liberal support can cancel out the Bloc Strength on the north side even if the Liberals finish ahead in Laval which is doubtful.
	11 03 29	Tony Ducey 76.11.85.66
New candidate for the Bloc but the same result, they'll win here handily.
	11 02 28	66.203.195.157
Serge Ménard is apparently not re-offering in favour of a provincial appointment. This will open up the seat a little bit but it would take a Liberal landslide or a very strong candidate to switch.
	09 08 27	JF Breton 207.134.225.57
Très nette victoire de Ménard en 2008 avec 12000 voix de majorité. On votera pour l'homme avant de voter pour le parti. Victoire bloquiste.