Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Bramalea-Gore-Malton


Prediction Changed
2009-09-05 11:11:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chilelli, Frank

Gosal, Bal

Malhi, Gurbax S.

Moulton, John R.A.

Singh, Jagmeet

Incumbent:
Hon. Gurbax S. Malhi

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • bramalea-gore-malton-springdale (174/189 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 27 Rob D.
    99.255.94.21
    Layton has visited this riding twice and touted candidate Jagmeet Singh at Toronto's Khalsa Day festivities last weekend. With an ‘orange wave’ sweeping the country this could be the NDP's first ever pick-up in Brampton.
    11 04 26 Joe
    99.150.153.54
    It's a shame the Conservatives don't know about this riding. A good number of the residents openly hate Malhi, but the Conservative candidate isn't organizing the suburban areas as well as say Parm Gill in the neighbouring riding.
    Malhi is beatable. Conservatives are just too unorganized to compete. Easy win, but with a declining vote total (yet another subtle hint the Conservative riding association wont pick up on).
    11 04 26 Johnny Quest
    174.112.122.211
    Tide has turned here. The local Ndp candidate is stealing religious punjabi votes from Mahli and Gosal will win by +7%. Drive around and u will see the change
    11 04 25 Evan deC
    204.237.4.111
    This one could be very close. In 2008, Malhi one by less than 4000 votes, and Bal Gosal could easily ride the wave of the Tory surge in Ontario that appears to happening at the moment. Gosal has been an active member of the community and has been a high profile contributor to many important community agencies and services. This one should be changed to TCTC - this site is being far too kind to Liberals chances in Ontario.
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Unlike the other two Brampton ridings, the Liberals should hold this one as they have performed better than the other two and it looks like the two parties are putting most of their resources in the other two Brampton ridings which are clearly battleground ones. It could be a nail biter depending on how the Tories do nationally or in Ontario, but I think a Tory majority is more likely than picking this riding up.
    11 04 17 Steve
    74.12.27.129
    Malhi is going to hold onto this riding. People know that regardless of who wins, the MP will be a backbencher. In that respect, they'll stick with the one who has continued to serve the community honestly for all these years. Malhi also has seniority in the Liberal party so if somehow the Liberals form a government, he'll get a position as secretary to a minister which keeps this riding on the minds of the bureaucrats when dolling out the dough.
    11 04 06 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    It's a wonder the Conservatives wouldn't target this and run a star candidate as Malhi is super weak, that said they'll lose this riding again IMO.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Of the three Brampton area ridings, this is probably the one the Liberals are least likely to lose still the Tories are no doubt aggressively targeting this. Looking at the poll breakdown last time, it appears they have much of the white Canadian born vote already so a lot will depend on whether they can make the inroads amongst the South Asian community they are hoping for or not.
    11 03 23 johnny Quest
    174.112.122.211
    there is a different feeling in this riding this time. I expect that Bal Gosal will squeeze out a victory this time similar to Dechert in Mississauga. Having Eve Adams run as Con in Brampton south-mississauga will help as she is strong in Malton community - Malhi base. Also Malhi doesnt live in riding- springdale. Local libs upset he is trying to setup riding up for daughter, who just got elected school board. Parm Gill will also tie up lib resources. Gosal by 300 votes
    11 02 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.195.116
    Apparently there is bad blood within the Conservative camp in this riding. That can not bode well for the CPC and they will likely target easier ridings such as B-Springdale and B-West.
    11 02 06 Marco Ricci
    174.115.176.181
    Parvinder Singh resigned as the Conservative candidate last year. He said he was pressured by the Conservatives to resign and said the Conservatives do not respect the Sikh community and are racist. It made news in several publications. This may cause the Conservatives a set-back in their desire to make inroads in this riding, but that doesn't mean the Liberals should get overconfident or take this riding for granted.
    09 12 28 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    It appears they may be an interesting race brewing here as the conservatives have just nominated a new candidate here to replace Stella Ambler who was not the greatest candidate last time but who still only lost by about 4000 votes to liberal mp Gurbax Malhi . they nominated Parvinder Singh a rookie to politics with a business background but still a good candidate . what surprised me when looking at some pictures on the internet of who attended the conservative nomination here was the largely south asian crowd . it appears not only is the conservatives ethnic strategy working here but its in fact a massive success and liberals losing alot of the so called ethnic vote in places like brampton. the question is can the conservatives do in ontario what they did out west where they have allready elected several mp's from a south asian background . those being the Grewal's in bc, Tim Uppal in edmonton and Devinder Shory in calgary. for whatever reason they have not yet succeed at this in the 905 area yet and i say yet is it may only be a matter of time until they do when considering there polling numbers in ontario.
    09 10 15 Phoenix
    99.251.230.35
    Interestingly, I got a piece of Liberal party campaign mail from Gurbax Malhi today at my home...in Atlantic Canada. It's common knowledge that the Liberals have recently adopted a strategy that the Conservatives have employed for a while: using the allotted campaign funds of MPs in 'safe' seats to circumvent campaign spending limits in 'battleground' areas. Though the numbers from 2008 suggest that Bramalea-Gore-Malton may be somewhat vulnerable, the fact that the Liberals feel safe enough here to dump a big chunk of Malhi's allotted funds into other ridings suggests that Malhi has a stronger grip on his riding than the numbers would suggest. Liberal hold.
    09 09 07 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    The ‘disastrous candidate but for demographics’ point would have been most worth emphasizing in Malhi's first electoral go around in 1993; but it becomes blurry after six elections and at least a couple more turbans in the House. Or maybe not. But certainly, it's galloping growth and the nature thereof that's saved his electoral hide: out of Malhi's 3,919 vote margin, 3,389 came within the six ‘polls’ that have had to be split into at least five sub-polls (a staggering 22 sub-polls in the case of Poll 12) since the polling boundaries were originally drawn! And when it comes to Liberal ‘disastrousness’: at this point, Malhi comes off as practically inoffensive next to his neighbour Ruby Dhalla (though that's a potential disaster of another stripe). I'll reserve judgment in case there's remnant Dhallagate spillover, regardless.
    09 09 05 EP
    99.231.80.124
    In any other context Malhi would be a disastrous candidate for the Liberals. This is a unique riding however where two-third of the residents are visible minorities and among them two-third are South-Asians. Malhi has a lock in that community (he wiped the floor even when the Conservatives fielded a South Asian candidate in 2004). And oh, rumour is that Flaherty aide and 2008 candidate Stella Amber is running in Mississauga South, assuming that this seat is hopeless. If he managed to held on in 2008, there is no reason to expect Malhi to lose this time around.



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