Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Brampton West


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 22:10:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Kania, Andrew

Koum Njoh, Theodore

Seeback, Kyle

Shergill, Jagtar

Soor, Avtaar

Incumbent:
Andrew Kania

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • bramalea-gore-malton-springdale (13/189 Polls)
  • brampton-centre (133/180 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 05 01 Stevo
    99.232.142.184
    This is more likely to go Conservative tomorrow than Brampton-Springdale. Credit goes to Jason Kenney for building for links with ethnic communities. It will pay off in Brampton.
    11 05 01 Natasha
    99.227.246.245
    There is a lot more politics in this riding than meets the eye. The Riding is actually dominated by Dutch-speakers and their descendants. Seeback is of Dutch heritage, so he will likely gain the support of his community. East Indians do not form the majority in this riding. The riding is actually ethnically diverse, so it will be interesting to see how the votes come down to it. Because many people in the riding may not like the fact that Harper especially has disregarded the other ethnic minorities in the riding, assuming that everyone is East Indian. I have to admit, I would never think in a million years that political candidates (Conservative, Liberal, & NDP) would visit Brampton so many times over a month's time!
    11 04 29 All Over the Map
    76.69.146.188
    Harper was in Brampton today, the Conservatives are holding steady in Ontario and the Liberals are collapsing - 21% in latest poll! I can't fathom how they'll hold on to this seat, even with the lack of an NDP history here.
    11 04 29 BW
    74.210.41.176
    This is the riding with the largest population in the country. A good percentage of residents weren't even living here the last time around, and transient voters in the GTA tend to be Liberal voters. Kania has the incumbent's advantage and he hasn't been invisible in the Sikh community. Kania will retain his seat with fewer than 1,000 votes over Seeback.
    11 04 29 j5
    99.239.253.246
    Judging by my pol of taxi drivers, Conservatives are taking most if not all of Brampton seats.
    11 04 19 R.O.
    99.246.102.2
    This riding will likely remain very close till the end which is why i'll avoid making final prediction till then. its obvivously a close race between liberals and conservatives , with both main candidates back for a rematch. the conservatives appear to be going all out and have had Harper in Brampton several times which may be due to ridings close proximity to Pearson International airport which has allowed for easier visits than other ridings. there is also a new poll which may indicate liberals in more trouble in ethnically diverse ridings than first though , according to abacus data conservatives had support of 47% and liberals 33 % among voters who did poll and identified themself as an immigrant. which were better cpc numbers than poll itself which had them at 37% nationwide. Liberals also had Justin Trudeau in Brampton which i believe is one of his only campaign events outside of Montreal so far this election an indication this area very competitive.
    11 04 12 George
    184.144.83.147
    This race will be incredibly close, again, but this time, Andrew Kania has the advantage of incumbency. Kyle Seeback hasn't done anything of note in the past two years, save for being the guy who lost last time. If the Conservatives came up with an Eve Adams-style candidate who was known and popular in the riding, they'd probably take this seat, but not this time.
    11 04 08 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    Brampton appears to be the big target in Ontario for Harper in this election. He has now visited here twice, and Ignatieff has also made a visit here. The leaders will probably visit here another time before the end of the campaign. We'll have to wait a couple of weeks to see who will prevail.
    11 04 06 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    Seeback came close here in 2008, this time I think he gets it done.
    11 04 03 sc
    173.206.79.212
    I think Seeback has narrowed the game a bit. But this still is a really strong liberal area. Plus Seeback comes off as a bit of a ‘know-it-all’ which really doesn't translate well with the voters.
    I say Kania wins by about 3000 votes ; still a great showing for Seeback though.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Until we get into the final week of the campaign, it would be silly to call this one. With a 200 vote margin for the Liberals this is definitely vulnerable especially if the Tories make gains in the 905. The only advantage the Liberals have is last time around this was an open seat whereas now they have the incumbent's advantage but either way it is too early and too close to call.
    10 02 20 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    70.53.220.72
    This was recently changed from TCTC to Liberal. Another prediction that has us confused. This riding was WAAAAY close in 2008 and any slight jolt could shift the riding. True the Liberals are back from their recent oblivion (more correctly the CPC are starting to tank and the Liberals are mostly unchanged) which bodes well for the Grits. True those Liberals that sat out in '08 will return. Never the less with numbers and circumstances as they are now this riding should not be cast for the Liberals until well into an actual election.
    09 12 28 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    I don't see why this riding would be any more unpredictable than the rest because of its size or that it had new residents moving into it . it appears its shaping up to be a fairly competitive race between rookie liberal mp Andrew Kania and conservative candidate Kyle Seeback . Andrew Kania still remains rather low profile and when i saw him in the house on cpac the other day i didn't even recognise him and i follow politics regulary. but it remains a race between 2 rookies as Kyle Seeback isn't near as high profile as someone like Tony Clement who once ran here and held the seat provincially. the riding could potentially go conservative if the party continues to lead in the polls in Ontario but of course an election is still aways off and the race here remains too close to call until then.
    09 12 16 Maharana Pratap
    69.156.5.233
    Harper's trip to India pretty much sealed the deal for most Indians here. The only ones holding on to the Liberals are 60 year old uncles and aunties who still think Trudeau let them into Canada.
    09 11 20
    99.227.180.92
    I Think this riding will remain Liberal. if all of you remember last time Andrew kania have only 20 day's for his campain and kyle is working in riding for 20 month's. This time Andrew have lot's of time obviously his team will be bigger. so i think this seat liberal's going to win with more margin then last time. will see
    09 11 03 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    One of the more strangely intense races of '08 to follow: a GTA seat with huge population growth, a retired incumbent, and a duel between newcomers that whittled itself down to a recount draw--almost like a 20th anniversary celebration of the dead heat in Vaughan that marked the beginning of Maurizio Bevilacqua's political career. Needless to say, anyone's guess, esp. if it's a rematch. One interesting bit of electoral-result trivia: Andrew Kania actually barely won his advance/special polls, while Ruby Dhalla next door in lost hers resoundingly.
    09 09 27 Nick J Boragina
    198.96.35.219
    I'm actually predicting this riding is ?Unpredictable?
    This is now the largest riding in Canada in terms of population (or at LEAST in the top 5) and that is due to new people moving into the area from elsewhere. There is simply no way of knowing how these people will vote.
    09 08 25 R.O.
    209.91.149.139
    Last election i called this one very late for the conservatives and half the people on here though i was crazy then a funny thing happened on election night the conservatives only lost this seat at the very end and by something like 200 votes although at the time it was vacant as previous mp had not ran for re-election. but of course one cannot expect the 2008 election to be the same as a future election but the recent extremely close result is at least reason for this one to be listed as too close to call. as i believe Kyle Seeback will be running again for the conservatives here and new liberal mp Andrew Kania remains rather low profile. and polling for ontario has shown a close race or even a conservative lead which was the case in a recent ipsos poll.



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