Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Brampton-Springdale


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:14:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dhalla, Ruby

Gill, Parm

Grewal, Manjit

Hoffberg, Mark

Rowley, Elizabeth

Incumbent:
Ruby Dhalla

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • brampton-centre (47/180 Polls)
  • brampton-west-mississauga (107/196 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    Ipsos is a pro-Conservative polling firm that always gives the Liberals low numbers. It has a history going back all the way to the 2000 election when they had numbers showing Chretien would only win a minority. Having said that, although the Liberal numbers are probably not as low as Ipsos says, they nevertheless stand to lose ridings like this unless local issues can save the candidate. Ruby Dhalla probably does not have the provincial numbers to hang on here unless voters are personally offended by Parm Gill's antics and decide to vote for her in spite of the provincial trend away from the Liberals. Gill has been featured in several controversial media stories lately so there is a small chance Dhalla can hang on, but only a small one.
    11 04 30 esquimalt jim
    184.66.2.164
    you know breaking down voting patterns is one thing but when you break it down into racial blocks, it's a little much. I'm sure not all black people, Asian people and white people do not all vote the same way. It is more apt to be economic strata that decide these things.
    anyway, good luck here. my riding was 62 votes apart last time and none of us no what to do.
    P.S that Parm Gill sounds like a nasty guy. People that are only against things but are never for things are not worth your vote. dirty tricks suck. If that guy put 10% of the energy he puts out to smear people and directed it towards creating some good ideas.
    anyway not my riding, just didn't like the tone .
    11 04 29 All Over the Map
    76.69.146.188
    Harper was in Brampton today, the Conservatives are holding steady in Ontario and the Liberals are collapsing - 21% in latest poll! I can't fathom how they'll hold on to this seat, even with the lack of an NDP history here.
    11 04 29 OgtheDim
    173.206.208.242
    Gill circumventing the immigration process when he isn't an MP isn't going to help him in a riding where concerns about getting your parents into the country are a big part of every day life. It might have helped him a bit if the CPC was going to win a majority. Now that the CPC has given up on that dream, that issue will hurt them a bit.
    Dhala has a huge target on her back, mostly from nannygate but also because Gill is a friend of Jason Kenny, who has a lot at stake in his attempts to win over the ethnic vote, whatever that means.
    The NDP isn't really going to be a factor here. The CPC vote is not holding provincially and bleeding to both the Liberals and the NDP. I would not be surprised if Gill wins; mostly because of how polarising Dhala is. But, Chretien's speech seems to have solidified the GOTV base in the GTA and that might be just enough to have the Liberals hold this one.
    11 04 28 gosens
    99.253.205.45
    The Liberal tide is going out and with it goes any chance that Andrew Kania can salvage this seat. Kania still has some support in the South Asian community that is his base, but it is thin elsewhere and bleeding to the NDP's Jagtar Shergill.
    As it was without the NDP surge, Kyle Seeback's support had solidified in old Brampton and in new Brampton he has found genuine support after building relationships in all communities over the last 2 1/2 years.
    11 04 26 Joe
    99.150.153.54
    How can people claim that the East Indian population will vote as a monolithic block in a very tight riding with two polarizing candidates? As far as I'm concerned, the East Indian vote is split (anyone on the ground in the riding would know this). The NDP surge could play a roll on election day. A lot of people in this riding naturally lean left and its possible the NDP vote will have a spike small enough to draw votes away from Ruby.
    Too close to call, but it seems like Parm Gill has regained his lost ground.
    11 04 23
    70.26.69.69
    This riding has certain pockets of support for the Liberals and the Conservatives but as a candidate Ruby Dhalla draws her support from all communities. Parm Gill draws 80% of his support form the Caucasian parts of this riding both affluent as well as blue collar caucasians. All of the area north of Bovaird where East Indians and other south asians are concentrated is awash with Liberal red lawn signs. Whereas in the central and southern portions you can certainly make out the white households by Parm Gill signs. The only reason an affluent riding like this far north in the GTA didnot go Conservative last time around was beacause of the visible minority vote.
    Conservative know this, that is why their candidate Parm Gill was trying to manufacture a controversy every quarter about Ruby in the last three years. The thing about nannies having met Jason Kenney's right hand man before being employed at Dhalla's brother's house is well known among East Indians here. Then there were fake pictures of Ruby with another woman's body attached to her face on the front page of the Sun(courtsey of Parm Gill's newly bought friend film producer Shira). By the way do you guys remember Judy Sgro and Pizzagate? Then you might want to know who was the conservative candidate running against Sgro. Yes you guessed it, it was Parm Gill!!! That poor guy was bought over by Parm Gill with promises that Paul Martin will be defeated in the confidence vote and he will get his refugee case settled as the new gov. would be conservative but that didn't happen although to the last day it seemed Harper was in. The very first thing Judy Sgro did after being re-elected was to deport him. After that impressive performance the conservative party moved Gill to the Springdale riding. The accuser after being deported retracted his claim and apologized which off course never made headlines.
    In any event Ruby is going to win or lose based on her own strength while Parm Gill is still counting on portraying his opponent a certain way so that enough people stay away or switch votes. His campaign is openly offering booze in exchange for votes. The media has been misled into thinking that there is some great shift in voting patterns among south asians but that is not very accurate.
    11 04 19 R.O.
    99.246.102.2
    Could Parm Gill finally be headed to Ottawa , i'm willing to say maybe but it still appears very close . this area seems to be a major conservative target and harper allready in Brampton a couple times. by-election victory in nearby Vaughan also indication tory victory not impossible in previous liberal strongholds near Toronto . but its still been a loyal liberal area since 93 and Ruby Dhalla has some appeal in riding or why else has she got elected here 3 times . the liberals also brought Justin Trudeau into Brampton one of his only campaign events outside montreal so far this election an indication this area very competitive. the end result here likely depends on final week of campaign or what candidate does better job of getting the vote out , could still be close like in 08 its tough to say .
    11 04 17 Bill
    74.12.27.129
    This will be close and probably closer than last time (<300 votes). More and more people are looking at voting conservatives but the reality is that the seniors and women will continue to be liberals as its clear that the Liberal plan better suits them.
    Sikhs are 50:50 and whites are mostly Conservative. However, blacks and filipinos are mostly Liberal. In the end, it really depends on if the blacks and filipinos come out to vote.
    11 04 14
    99.228.40.119
    Parm Gill's Campaign is getting momentum day by day. He is endorsed by most of the clubs and recently endorsed by the filipino community. Dhalla's lot of controversies will cost her this election. She approached court for gag order and offers to pay $5000 to nannies and wants an order that claimant won't discuss with anybody. By offering money shows, she admits that she did wrong to those nannies. Last time gill lost by just 773 votes and visit of ministers and Prime Minister to this riding shows that Gill worked very hard since last election and committed to work hard in future. For sure this time its for Gill.
    11 04 13 Joe
    99.35.214.68
    I cannot understate my dislike and contempt for Ms. Dhalla. Because of her character and the fact that the riding is naturally Conservative because of its upper-middle class residents, I strongly felt this election would be her last. But the first few days of the campaign trail, Liberal signs sprouted throughout the riding like spring flowers. As much of a failure Ms. Dhalla is as a politician, she is a very good organizer and campaigner. Parm Gill was slow out the gate and it looks like that will be his demise in this election.
    Grudgingly, I must admit that Ms. Dhalla will win and the vote total will tell the story (it will not be too close to call).
    11 04 09
    69.196.189.185
    Six South Asian organizers have come over to to Gill..This riding is lost.
    11 04 08 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    Brampton appears to be the big target in Ontario for Harper in this election. He has now visited here twice, and Ignatieff has also made a visit here. The leaders will probably visit here another time before the end of the campaign. We'll have to wait a couple of weeks to see who will prevail.
    11 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    204.187.16.140
    We've decided to retract our earlier CPC prediction. Looking at the daily nanos polls there is one clear trend in Ontario and that is the Liberals have been steadily climbing in support. The NDp have been steadily declining and the CPC, after an earlier rise, have trended downward. This would suggest a more cautious approach to predictioneering may be in order, especially in Ontario.
    11 04 06 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    Dhalla has gone from a potential leader of the Liberal party someday to a vulnerable opponent, I think this election she'll end up the losing candidate here.
    11 04 03 sc
    173.206.79.212
    Parm Gill has done a great job as of late, but he is only succeeding in pockets of the riding.
    Dhalla has her thousands of supporters plus the ‘retired’ population of this riding who overwhelming vote Liberal in most election.
    I say Dhalla takes this by about 2000 votes.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    A close riding last time around and one considers the controversy Ruby Dhalla had during the nannygate this will be a tough one for the Liberals to hold especially if they don't improve their numbers in Ontario. If the Liberals can improve their numbers in Ontario they should still hold this, but if not, expect the Tories to pick this up.
    11 03 25 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    Ruby Dhalla was recently criticized when a report was released showing the number of absences of the MP's in the House of Commons. It showed that Dhalla had a high number of absences and she was rebuked in the newspapers for it:
    http://www.bramptonguardian.com/opinion/letters/article/966666--letter-get-to-work-ruby
    Considering that she faces a close race in the next election, it's surprising that Dhalla would leave herself open to this sort of controversy. On top of that, controversy in the media is starting again with Dhalla's former Nanny:
    http://www.thestar.com/news/article/958802--ruby-dhalla-s-family-seeks-to-gag-nanny
    Put all of this together and it is not looking like a good start to the election for Dhalla. She will have to hope that the Liberal vote in Toronto remains solid and that she gets back some of the voters she lost in 2008, or Parm Gill could win this time.
    11 02 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.195.116
    Upon deeper inspection, our earlier post was incorrect and there was a significant sit-out of previous Liberal voters in this riding (we failed to consider the growth of the riding), albeit smaller than in some other near-by ridings. regardless, given the current situation with the Liberals in Ontario and giving the Conservatives inroads with new Canadians, we are currently inclined to say the CPC will take this riding. The whole Nannygate affair has long since fizzled into distant memory and this seat will be a Liberal loss due to their overall weakness (in general) and Conservative strength within the Indo-Canadian community (specifically). Things can change of course and there is a glimmer of hope for the Liberals currently. If they can get traction of cut backs to funding for programs for New Canadians and for the reduced visas being issued for parents and grandparents of New Canadians, they should be able to strike a chord with this deeply family-oriented demographic. Don't think it's likely though, the Liberals have failed to capitalize on such opportunities in the past. Probably won't start now.
    11 02 06 Marco Ricci
    174.115.176.181
    Parm Gill seems to be working hard in between elections in this riding. Since the last election I have seen quite a few advertisements for him, and he has been working hard to get his name out there to voters. As for Ruby Dhalla, I don't think the ‘Nanny-gate’ story will hurt her too much. That was almost 2 years ago and didn't result in any findings of wrongdoing. The main factor that will be at play here will be the overall vote in this region - can the Liberals get it back up to 2006 levels, or will it stay at 2008 levels? There was a huge drop between '06 and '08, and if it remains the way it did in '08, Dhalla could lose.
    10 01 19
    96.49.102.215
    Ruby Dhalla has had a tough session. First, there was the nanny-mistreatment allegations. Then, there was outrage over her bill to give new immigrants full pension benefits. Just today, her EDA vice-president and several quit her campaign and joined the Conservatives. It's a losing battle, and I think Tory Parm Gill will come out on top.
    10 05 16 binriso
    156.34.216.1
    While the previous post claiming 'the CPC will win because the Liberal supporters here still think Trudeau brought them to Canada' is offensive and basically pure partisan bashing (its obviously done by all major parties not just the CPC), the CPC will probably win here due to the negative media coverage against the Liberal MP. Then again this seat was won in 1988 and 2008 when the Liberals were very low in the polls in Ontario so its probably TCTC.
    09 12 28 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    I'm now realising the liberals problems in brampton are much more complex and serious than first though. some have though it was just Ruby Dhalla herself who was bringing them down here and she was there problem. but in fact they run much more deeper and they are losing the ethnic vote especially among south asians who now make up a large % of the population in brampton. this problem was highlighted in a recent article in the globe and mail called the battle for brampton, where it talks about how large numbers of south asians have defected to the conservatives from the liberals here. and it appears the problem shows no signs of stoping anytime soon and the conservatives ethnic strategy lead by Jason Kenney has been highly successful here. so with the conservatives leading in the polls it appears conservative candidate Parm Gill is well positioned here and he could potentially win this riding whenever the next election does take place.
    09 12 16 Maharana Pratap
    69.156.5.233
    Harper's trip to India pretty much sealed the deal for most Indians here. The only ones holding on to the Liberals are 60 year old uncles and aunties who still think Trudeau let them into Canada.
    09 09 25 Johnny Quest
    174.112.126.191
    Ruby's OAS (old age security)bill, seconded by Bob Rae, will cost her the election.
    It has moved the long time anglo and seniors to Parm Gill because they are ticked off. And yes there is a lot more than just Punjabis in this riding. Only need to move 700 votes and Ruby has done this for Mr. Gill
    09 09 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    70.30.37.147
    Premature to call this a Tory pick up. There wasn't a massive Liberal sit-out like was seen in other near-by ridings in '08 but rather the CPC did garnish new support. The thing is what will Liberal support in Ontario look like when there actually is an election. There's flux here and there in the polls but wisdom would suggest that the Liberals will not do worse in Ontario than they did under Dion. As for nannygate...does anyone really remember this? Makes us think of what Cruella DeVil said in the animated version of 101 Dalmations, ?Hang the papers! It'll be forgotten tomorrow!? These things do tend to get forgotten quickly. Never the less, the genuine creeping up by the CPC over the past few elections does make this TCTC.
    09 09 20
    96.49.102.215
    This one is leaning Conservative right now for a few factors. First, the problem is Ruby herself. She is not a popular MP as evidenced by the close race last election. Also, Dhalla's image has been ruined by the caregivers' controversy which were very serious allegations about the treatment of workers. Therefore, this riding will likely elect Parm Gill.
    09 09 14 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    The close-result shocker last time was almost like a foretelling of Dhalla's Nannygate woes...and now, *here's* a race that'll be a media fixation. And perhaps beyond, given that Dhalla's long been among the top caucus Ignatieff supporters (don't be surprised if Iggy's opponents bring her up at every opportunity). Whatever happens on election eve (a sympathy vote, or not?), expect one of the big networks to have a reporter stationed at Dhalla HQ...
    09 09 12 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.68
    At the moment, the Liberals are polling a number of points higher than the number they got in Ontario on election night in 2008. That means that they should have a good chance at keeping the seats that they were able to keep during the disaster of 2008.
    However, in this riding there could be an exception to that as there has been some controversy involving Ruby Dhalla over the past year. But most of the controversy seems to have subsided for the moment. ?Nannygate? has not been a major story since the spring and nothing about it has been talked about over the summer. Unless there is a new scandal, its impact may have faded.
    I would predict a narrow Liberal hold at this point.
    09 09 11 R.O.
    209.91.149.77
    This one is going to be an interesting race for sure as Ruby Dhalla has not had a great year and at some point is going to have to face the voters and i think an early election does not help her chances. as she has not yet been able to clear up all the allegations made against her and there still fresh in voters minds. you can't help but think that having to deal with allegations of nanny abuse and questionable movies scenes is bad for business when your an mp. the conservatives are making a strong push here and running Parm Gill again who came very close to winning the riding last time which surprised alot of observers who though the riding was a lock for the liberals. but its definitely not a guarantee for the liberals at the moment.
    09 08 29 TENN CAN
    24.158.169.165
    If you take 3 factors - the stagnation of Ignatieff in the polls over the summer, the narrow win that Dhalla had in 2008 plus the whole nannygate affair - Brampton Springdale could become a ‘Tennessee’ of Ontario ridings, that is, even as the country may go more left, the riding goes more right (even if by the smallest margin) and this is a Tory pickup !!!
    09 08 24 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    Dhalla barely held on to this riding by 773 votes in '08. Her total dropped significantly from '06, while the Tories gained. Nannygate should be enough to move this riding into the blue column, providing the Tories remind them...



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