Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 22:10:00

Constituency Profile


Baker, Paul William

Chatwin, Justin

Oliver, Joe

Volpe, Joe

Hon. Joe Volpe

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • eglinton-lawrence (171/186 Polls)
  • st-pauls (17/223 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 MF
    I think Joe Volpe will survive. I expect the Conservative vote to stay about the same (around 37-39%) and though the NDP vote will go up I don't expect the orange wave to have much impact in Eglinton-Lawrence.
    11 04 30 The Jackal
    History will be made here as CPC will have their first pick-up in the 416 area. Volpe hasn't help himself in recent years and the Conservatives have been chipping away at Liberal support in the GTA the last few elections.
    11 04 29 All Over the Map
    The latest poll, from Ipsos, shows the Liberal vote collapsing in Ontario - 21% in latest poll! Even if that is less prevalent here due to the lack of history for the NDP, it won't be enough for Volpe to hang on, especially given this is the Conservative's #1 target in Toronto.
    11 04 29 OgtheDim
    Poor Joe Volpe. The Liberals hold a massive GOTV oriented event in Toronto, and he doesn't get a mention. Maybe he made a few too many enemies among the various Liberal camps over the years.
    The Chretien speech is solidfying the Liberal base in the GTA, which will help Joe. And its not like the CPC is gaining huge amounts of ground anymore. But, the CPC has targetted this one and wants it bad and probably has made enough inroads to use the ‘we want a change’ factor to their benefit.
    It will be close but if I had to lean somewhere, I'd lean CPC.
    11 04 29 binriso
    Those who stated that the Nanos polling had the Conservatives near 50, do you want to change your prediction back? It is 36-30-29 CPC-Liberal-NDP today and dropping pretty fast for the Conservatives in Ontario. They wouldnt get this seat and will probably be near the same amount as last time, if not less.
    11 04 27 Joe H.
    With the Conservatives' strength in Ontario combined with a likely split of the left wing vote, I think that Joe Oliver and the Conservatives will be able to come down the middle and take this riding in a tight race.
    11 04 26 Nate
    According to Nanos, Conservatives are at 48% in Ontario, while the Liberals are at only 29%. However, the real kicker is Joe Volpe being photographed with a staffer who took out a Green pamphlet and threw it out - combined with Volpe's other integrity lapses over the years, it may well cause enough voters to either stay home or vote CPC to kick him out.
    11 04 25 Full Name
    With Volpe's campaign worker getting photographed this week removing Green Party pamphlets from constituents mailboxes, replacing them with Volpe's pamphlets, I think a lot of voters are at the end of their line with Mr. Volpe. Really might depend how widely the local media report the story though. Add that to the recent plunge in Liberal fortunes and rise in Conservative numbers in tracking polls like Nanos, and this riding is ripe for a Conservative ‘take’.
    11 04 25 Brendan B.
    This was going to be too close to call, until CTV ran a story in the news this evening: http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110425/campaign-fire-volpe-110425/20110425?hub=TorontoNewHome
    Basically Volpe and a staffer were removing the Green party candidate (Paul Baker)'s campaign pamphlets from mailboxes at homes they were canvassing at. If the constituents of Egg-Law catch wind of this, it might further tilt this into the CPC column.
    Couple this along with the fact that the NDP and Liberal's are polling statistically tied right now nationally (still close in Ontario as well) - which might provide a left vote split (like many other ridings) and have the Conservatives steal one. We shall see.
    11 04 22 Mike
    As much as Joe Volpe leaves a bad taste in my mouth, he'll pull it off. I really wish there was someone more ethical in this riding though. After the ‘I see dead people’ leadership run, I trust this man about less than zero. But there has never been any solid base of Green or NDP support, and the riding is more Progressive Conservative in its soul. Now that the Conservatives threw the Progressive part under the bus, it'll take a bigger wave than what's happening to get Joe Oliver in.
    11 04 18 Matt
    I think Joe Volpe is relatively safe here. He has nothing to take for granted but if he puts in the effort he should emerge victorious. An interesting thing to consider - the eastern part of the riding voted Smitherman for mayor and re-elected Karen Stintz. The western part of the riding voted overwhelmingly for Rob Ford and elected one of his newest most vocal and left-wing opponents, Josh Colle. It's a tough riding to predict the outcome of as the voting pattern doesn't seem to make much sense, and I think they're going to go with the devil the know here in Eglaw.
    11 04 17 Marco Ricci
    'Toronto Liberal candidate Joe Volpe has asked Elections Canada to formally investigate reports that residents in his riding are being harrassed by repeated calls from a North Dakota phone number claiming to represent his campaign.'
    If this is true, it may show that Volpe's opponents think he is in the lead and are worried he will win.
    11 04 16 mike b
    I still think this riding is too close to call. I drive all over Eglinton Lawrence. I've seen a lot more Conservative signs east of Avenue Road than I've seen in the last 3 Federal and Provincial elections. Same goes for North East of Dufferin and Eglinton. I do think this riding will be the closest that the Conservatives will get to a seat in Toronto.
    11 04 11 John
    Nanos recently released some poll numbers that show Liberal support in Ontario up. I think that puts this, plus any other Greater Toronto Area too-close-to-call seats that went Liberal last election in the Liberal camp this time around too.
    11 04 10 Ottawa Outside Insider
    Mark me down for a Liberal call on this one. Joe has been around for a lot of years now and at times he does seem to be a bit spent. I can see where there might be desire for change in E-L, but I will also say this: Joe has managed to pull through in tougher times (the Liberal voter sit-in of 2008 and the issue questionable donations come to mind). I suspect we will see Liberal voters, who sat out the last time, return to the ballot box in this go-round. That should equate to another term for Mr. Volpe.
    11 04 10 WP
    I live in St. Paul's, but I walk through the southern portion of Eglinton-Lawrence. Last election it was a sea of blue here, and while Oliver signs still clearly dominate, Volpe has a sign presence that was almost completely absent last time. I'm not sure if this means he has greater support or if he's just not taking the riding for granted like last time, but one way or the other it seems from the street level that he's more competitive here. It will be another close race, but unless the Tories pull away in Ontario in the last few weeks of the campaign, Volpe will likely hang on again.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    I can't see this in play.
    Volpe was outspent by $36K last time ($82k vs. $46k) because he didn't see himself in danger. It got closer then it should have but he won by 2,000 votes and 4.5%. Polls have Liberals consistently up over 2008 in Ontario so I can't see this anything but Liberal until they fall to 2008 numbers.
    11 04 03 jeff316

    This riding gets played up as a largely Italian and Jewish riding that could go Conservative due to changes in each community's voting trends, and the increase of the Conservative vote in previous election.
    The Conservatives may come closer, but the Italians and Jews in Eglinton-Lawrence are a very different subset than their cousins in Thornhill and Vaughan.
    It's the younger, wealthier and more conservative second and third generations that have moved their houses to the burbs and their votes to the Conservatives - Eglinton-Lawrence's are older, more established, less affluent and more tied to Liberals they've always voted for (particularly for the Italians.) The Jewish community is a bit more fluid, but even here there are pockets of the old labour bund, CCF/NDP style voters, which will be hard to shift to Conservative votes.
    The one community that is often overlooked here are the Filipinos, and they're pretty solidly Liberal and could hold the key to winning this riding in future elections.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    Once a solid Liberal riding, but in the past three elections this has been one of the Tories' best showings in Toronto and in the past one this was the closest they came to winning a seat in Toronto. They have made strong gains amongst the Jewish population and to a lesser extent amongst Italian voters. Should be close, although a lot will depend on the national campaign more so than the local campaign. If the Liberals can tighten things up they should hold this, but if the Tories continue to lead by 10% or more in Ontario they should pick this up.
    11 04 01 gosens
    Smart analysts knew that the Jewish vote had come over prior to the '08 election. In fact it came over first provincially in '07 - because of Harper, not because of the faith-based issue (which only helped in orthodox areas but hurt among secular Jews).
    Now that the big shift already happened in the Jewish community there is no more significant block there to move... the last 2000 votes will be harder to earn. Can they earn more of that demographic? yes some... Can they get Filipino voters? maybe... To me it looks like it will rest on whether the aggressive targeting by the CPC of families with children pays off.
    On the flip side if the voters who stayed home in '08 come out, the CPC will get some but the Libs will get more.
    11 03 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Okay, now that we finally have an election we will respond to the earlier criticisms levied against us (didn't feel like having a tit for tat argument when there was no actual election). In response to what we said in '08, fair enough, we didn't see the massive Liberal voter sit out coming. No one did (unless they profess to be clairvoyant), but it happened and the CPC did better than expected (hindsight is always 20:20). Secondly, no not all sit outs were Liberals but MOST were. It doesn't make sense for a conservative voter, listening to polls saying CPC are going to make big gains, to sit home and say, ‘Oh well, they don't need my vote’. Liberal voters on the other hand, used to huge Liberal wins and dissatisfied with Dion are far more likely to say, ‘I don't like Dion, but don't want to vote CPC. Fine I'll register my protest by not voting. Besides the Liberals aways win by large margins’
    Now enough with the past and onto the present, yes this should be TCTC. There has been inroads made in the 416 by the CPC. The Liberals have not provided their supporters with reason to come out to vote (yet) and the Jewish vote has shifted towards the CPC. Never the less, it remains to be seen if the CPC can actually take this one. Volpe should be pounding the pavement hard, scrounging up all the support he can and making sure he gets his supporters to the polls this time.
    11 03 29 MH
    Joseph Volpe has won this seat seven times running, but in 2008 Joe Oliver crept within 2100 votes. Still, the seat is Volpe's to lose. Even if the Liberal vote does not collapse, however, the Conservatives may this time have the extra strength needed to pry this one loose. I drove through the southern part of the constituency today, and signs are already up for both Oliver and Volpe. Clearly both camps are taking this race seriously. The NDP is negligible in E-L as in North Toronto more generally, so it will stay a two-way race. At present TCTC.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    I have to agree with the chorus to move this riding into the Too-Close-To-Call column. The Tories came within 5 points of winning here last time, and they nearly won provincially in 2007, as well (not to mention they're trying again this fall, with a star candidate to boot). Most polls are showing them well ahead in the GTA, and they know as well as anyone else that this is their best shot in the 416.
    11 03 28 A Drummond
    Just a note, the Star listed this riding today as one of 7 to watch in the GTA because it has the potential to be a CPC gain.
    11 03 28 Stevo
    The Liberal stranglehold on the GTA is breaking down and in ways one wouldn't expect. Eglinton-Lawrence is more likely than even Don Valley West to go Tory - who would've thought?? This should be changed to Too Close To Call for the time being, given that local polls show the Conservatives and Liberals tied in the GTA. Yes I know GTA includes more than the City of Toronto, however in 2008 the two parties certainly were NOT tied as the Liberals took around 75% of the seats in the region; if the parties are indeed tied on election day in the GTA, E-L should be one of the dominoes to fall to the Tories.
    11 03 27 OgtheDim
    Just to be clear, although Rob Ford might have coattails provincially, with his anti-government cut the waste of the current government themes, there is little purchase in that federally.
    More importantly, if you look at the poll by poll results, Oliver lost the last election in most polls, in York, North York, and Toronto. Oliver did win polls in Toronto and North York and, not unusually for a Tory candidate, took the advance polls and those voting from overseas. But he lost consistently on the day across the riding itself.
    So he has a lot of work to do across the riding, not just in one area.
    11 03 27 WAC
    This is where the rubber meets the road on the Conservatives ‘very ethnic’ voter strategy. The Conservatives have been very aggressive in courting the Jewish vote. This riding has the fourth largest percentage Jewish population of any riding in the country at 23.2%. Furthermore it has a high percentage of immigrant voters at around 39%, good for the top 20th percentile in Canada. (am I the only one who's going to miss the long form census?). Anyways, the Conservatives came very close to winning last time falling short by about 2,000 votes/4%. Yes, a lot of Liberal voters stayed home, but the Conservatives have been gaining in terms of raw vote over the past three elections. Furthermore, in the latest batch of polls the Conservatives are up and the Liberals down in Ontario since last election. Eglinton-Lawrence is probably the Conservatives best shot at a seat in the 416 and I expect they'll pour a fair bit of resources into it. All that makes this race TCTC at this point. Should be fairly interesting.
    11 03 27 rebel
    The key area in Eglinton-Lawrence will be North Toronto which voted narrowly Liberal and with the heavily Italian polls in the west side, edged out the massive Conservative vote in Jewish polls bordering Bathurst Street. I would also expect the Liberal brand in EL will be dragged dwon both by Ignatieff and the long-standing MP, Volpe.
    11 03 26 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    The Tories have the math they need to win here. This was one of their best ridings in the city, and shockingly so. This time, the party will know to spend it's resources here, and I wouldn't be surprised if they beg Rob Ford to stump for them.
    11 03 25 Marco Ricci
    This riding was specifically mentioned today by a Conservative strategist on CTV as a place they are targeting big time. The close result here last time was probably unexpected. The Conservatives will likely work harder than last time to win it, but now that he knows he is vulnerable, this could give Joe Volpe the necessary motivation he needs to work hard at keeping it, instead of being a bit asleep at the switch like he may have been last time.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    I'm not so sure about this seat... Tory fortunes in this seat have obviously benefitted from Harper's aggressive courting of the Jewish vote and Joe Volpe, while a capable organizer, isn't exactly a flawless candidate. Could this become to the 416 what Thornhill was to the inner 905? Maybe not, but it would very likely be the first 416 seat to fall in a Harper majority situation.
    10 02 13 R.O.
    I still don't feel this one is safe for the liberals even when considering the current polling numbers and fact they lead in Toronto. the reality here as the conservatives now have a fairly solid base in the riding largely due to jewish voters . when looking at some recent results such as 2007 provincial election and 2008 federal vote the numbers are very similar here. in 07 Bernie Tanz got 37% of the vote or 15000 votes and in 08 Joe Oliver got 39 % of the vote or 17000 votes . and the liberals got around 43 % in this riding each time as well . so when considering the fact those were very different elections one is which the liberals did very good and the other very bad . to me indicates the conservatives are much stronger in the riding than some want to admit and with Joe Oliver back as a candidate its going to be another hard fought campaign here and too early to say what might happen here .
    09 11 22 MH
    This is one constituency in which the recent Conservative pamphlet aimed at Jewish voters may (I emphasize the conditional tense) have the result of defeating a Liberal incumbent. The ethics of the pamphlet are highly questionable, and it is, to say the least, astonishing to see the likes of Joe Volpe or, for that matter, Irwin Cotler implicitly painted as anti-Semitic and anti-Israel. But the pamphlet may influence some Jewish voters at a time when the Liberals seem in any case less dominant in North Toronto than they have been during the last 20 years. E-L should stay Liberal, but don't be too surprised if it goes Conservative.
    09 09 30 gosens
    Bear&Ape, not all of those non voters were Liberals. There were Conservatives staying home too. Yes the majority of the voters who stayed home were Liberal [and some of the new Green voters were also former Liberals] but not all. This riding will continue to stay close, helped by an increasingly solidified Jewish vote behind the CPC and the other community outreach being done by their candidate. And with the way Ignatieff is underperforming, there's no guarantee the Liberal vote will come out again just yet. Too close to call.
    To quote Bear&Ape's 2008 prediction:
    ?CPC prediction? Nonsense! You can not compare provincial and federal elections results. Different campaigns, different issues........the CPC don't have a hope in hell over coming an 11K+ lead that the Liberals have. To believe otherwise is just plain nieve.? [sic] -- Well they missed the boat on that prediction and apparently their heads are still in the clouds on this one. This is a close riding, and this is the new normal. A slim CPC majority, and they'll win here.
    09 09 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    No boys and girls, it is not too close to call. The close numbers in '08 are due (once again) to Liberal voters staying home. Something that will not be repeated. Let's do the math, shall we: 5,746 fewer votes cast in '08 vs '06, CPC up 2100 votes, NDP down 2000 votes, Greens up 1100 votes, Liberals down 6900 votes. The CPC did not win the hearts and minds (and the resulting votes) of this riding, the just kept Liberals home. Won't work twice. Things may change IF the conservatives are in majority territory and IF Volpe does something dumb. Big IFs that are just not in the cards at the moment.
    09 09 11 R.O.
    This like any toronto ridings has alot of recent liberal history and it surprised some people that it was so close last election but when looking thru its history that wasn't the first time it almost went conservative as way back in 79 and 84 federal elections the liberals only held it by similar thin margins as the 2008 election. so its a toronto riding which the liberals have almost lost a few times over the years when they polled really low it appears but for whatever reasons they manage to hang on here in the end. but its still likely to be a race again as Joe Oliver is returning as the conservative candidate and likely facing liberal mp Joe Volpe. so i expect the rematch to get interesting and i don't think its clear who will win it this early.
    09 09 04 A.S.
    What automatically bumped Eg-Law up the one-to-watch list was its unexpectedly becoming the PCs' closest call provincially in the 416 in '07, thanks to MPP Mike Colle's ethics issues and ‘Asper Toryism’. And with Joe Volpe's own longstanding ethical clouds (perhaps even extending back to his wresting the Liberal nomination from MP Roland De Corneille in '88), well...but if you want a measure of what scheduling an election during a Jewish holiday in the Asper Tory era will bring you, Volpe not only lost the advance polls by nearly 15%, but the ‘Group 2’ special ballot total went up by 2/3, and the Tories won that by nearly a 3:1 margin! But if you expect that close-call pattern to prevail under the hawkish leadership of Ignatieff, well...still, I'll stop just short of a Grit prediction, just in case.
    09 09 01 MF
    The Tories were able to make some inroads with a mobilized Orthodox Jewish electorate basically voting as a bloc and in the very wealthy areas east of Bathurst, and came very close to taking out grade-Z MP Joe Volpe. However the fact that Volpe still won demonstrates to me how safe a riding Eglinton-Lawrence is!
    09 08 30 Stevo
    So close, by Tory-in-the-416 standards. Sadly I suspect that that's probably the closest the Conservatives will get here. The numbers from 2008 do suggest some genuine Tory growth, but even moreso that Liberals stayed home. One of the nastiest MPs in the House will get an easy ride back to Ottawa.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    This riding is too close to call.
    With Joe Volpe's small margin of victory in the 2008 election (under 2500 votes), the Conservatives will be targeting this riding as their potentional 416 breakthrough.
    Expect a very close, and very hard fought election battle here in Eglinton-Lawrence.

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