Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Essex


Prediction Changed
2011-04-23 11:48:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Carriveau, Cora

Natyshak, Taras

Santos, Nelson

Villamizar, Enver

Watson, Jeff

Incumbent:
Jeff Watson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • essex (205/220 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 29 dkay
    24.57.166.208
    i think putting this in the win column for the conservatives is a bit early... this is going to be a nailbiter on election day... i live in this riding and have noticed something i have never seen before.. ndp signs outnumbering liberal ones in the rural areas... the former lib susan whelan is not running this time and while santos is a high quality candidate he appears to be lacking the machine that she had...how much of her vote was for her solely or those that voted strategically for her when the ndp was down??.. with polls trending in the ndps favor even in vote rich ontario right now its going to make this very very close.. with the momentum however i think the edge has to go to the ndp this time ndp 37 cons 36 libs 21 green 6
    11 04 25 Earl P.
    24.57.82.202
    Big surprise coming in favour of the NDP in this riding next to the two biggest NDP ridings in the country. The incumbent Tory is nothing more than a former Reform Party member who was up against some weak candidates the last few elections. That allowed Jeff Watson to win comfortably.
    Not this time around. The Jack Layton express will knock off this very poor sitting MP.
    11 04 24 C.A.B.
    76.70.91.30
    The Conservatives are doing well enough in Ontario that they'll probably win this one - they took it in 2004, after all, and they obviously have a solid base here - and I think the more interesting question is who will come in second.
    11 04 21
    69.196.173.95
    Layton was in the riding with this being at least a toss up and a possible pick up
    11 04 20 Stevo
    99.232.142.184
    Conservatives have this. Liberal traditions in parts of rural Southern Ontario are so 20th century, and in any case NDP strength emanating from Windsor (and nationally, given the current trends) will tend to blunt any possible Liberal resurgence here. Jeff Watson can rest easy.
    11 04 19 MF
    70.48.66.229
    Essex will be an interesting race. I can't speak for how strong Santos is as a candidate for the Liberals, but I wouldn't count the NDP out here - it does border the two NDP strongholds in Windsor and did elect Steve Langdon in the 1980s. Taras Natyshak pulled 27% of the vote last time just behind former MP Susan Whelan. Now Jack Layton is enjoying much more personal popularity and the NDP has momentum and certainly could surpass the Liberals. Jeff Watson will most likely hang on - he did take this in '04. The strong showing for the Canadian Alliance (35%) may have been a foreshadowing of this - though in a lot of working class ridings populism can move from right to left.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Although one of the weaker Tory ridings in Ontario, the Tories have consistently done better than their province wide average and considering that they have the most motivated support and are polling at over 38% consistently province wide, they should hold this. It may be closer than last time, but if they could win in 2004 against a Liberal incumbent when the Tories were doing much worse province wide, I don't see why they cannot win now.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    173.178.135.34
    Santos is a star candidate for the area and has been working it for a while now. NDP is down in the polls can could move votes to the Liberals.
    11 04 08 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    Santos will make this interesting but I think with the CPC heading for another win, Essex will choose to re-elect Watson.
    11 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    204.187.16.140
    To comment on Nick's posting; We know this riding well (recall Proff Ape is from here and Dr Bear lived in Windsor for over 4 years) and you are correct, there is a very strong Reform-type mentality in part of the riding. Very bible-belty in places. The thing is this riding is also very Windsory, especially in the north, where people have a blue-collar, union-supporter mentality (read: stongly NDP). This split is what makes this riding interesting.
    Now to comment on the current polling situation in Ontario; the numbers don't look good for anyone but Watson. Not that CPC support is increasing in Onatrio, it's not. Rather Liberal support has been steadily increasing and mostly at the expense of the NDP (to a lesser extent at the expense of the CPC). Now unless there is a province-wide collapse in NDP vote, the Liberal's best strategy is to not touch this riding. Allow the left-leaning vote to crystalize around Natyshak and take down Watson that way. However it seems likely at the moment that vote splitting will allow the CPC to keep this riding. Can't see it continuing after redistribution though.
    11 04 05 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    Point of information: in the days of the divided right, this riding leaned much more Reform/Alliance than it did PC. In 1993, Reform took over 10% more than Reform, nearly 28% in 2000, and 12% in 1997. Where the new Conservative party does do well, are in areas where Reform/Alliance did. That tells me that this riding may well be much stronger in this area than historic PC results would lead some to believe.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    The Tories have held this for the past three election thus is theirs to lose, but with its close proximity to Windsor which has been harder in the recent recession than other parts of Ontario, they could be still vulnerable especially if the NDP vote collapses and unites behind the Liberals. Last time around they only got 40% so at lot depends whether they go up or down here and how much the centre-left vote coalesces around the Liberals. A strong advantage to the Tories, but not entirely safe.
    11 04 01 pitcher
    72.38.227.162
    I've been out and around this riding and clearly the NDP are organized and looking for a win. It feels as if they never stopped working. Tarras comes from a very political family and they clearly have a ground game in gear. With little effort needed to win in Windsor the NDP we focus hard to retake this seat.
    10 04 04 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    There has been some news out of this riding as due to the ontario municipal elections this fall liberal candidate and Essex warden Nelson Santos is being forced to choose between one or the other . but he hasn't made up his mind yet and likely won't until about june. if he leaves the position of liberal candidate i'm really unsure who the liberals would run here as former mp Sue Whelan seems to after 3 unsuccessful runs to be out of the picture . the ndp i should mention are also targeting the riding and i beleive Jack Layton has actually visited the riding a couple of times. but i don't feel the ndp are polling well enough in ontario to make any gains yet alone any at the expense of the conservatives. the riding is also home to some auto industry employees and operations , an industry which has been hit hard but in recent months is showing signs of recovery. the current mp Jeff Watson maintains an advantage here for now especially when considering the uncertainty facing the liberals in the riding.
    09 12 05 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    I wouldn't judge Essex to be a Tory lock--essentially, Jeff Watson's survived off the fumes of being elected in 2004 and his party being on the up-and-up in Ontario ever since; but he's got one of the more erratic and infighting-prone local Tory machines out there, which tokenly showed in his actual *share*, never mind voting numbers, falling marginally from '06 to '08. And on top of that is the seat's own uniquely NDP-friendly history, never mind that of its Windsor neighbours--true, a lot of that was suppressed through the Susan Whelan years; but now that Whelan's no longer a factor, we might have a battle royal between Harper Populism and Layton Populism, especially if Iggy's deemed to be terminally un-populist. As such, and with the NDP prepared to go to bat for Natyshak now that Whelan's out of the way, it could be as unique a circumstance within Ontario as that which got Joe Comartin elected in the 2000 wasteland--emphasis upon ‘could’, of course.
    09 09 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.88.173.222
    Some may say that Tank must be tanked to think the NDP could take this riding. As things are the NDP would be very hard pressed to win this. But let's ponder for a second...when is redistribution taking effect? Recall that Ontario is getting twenty-something new seats, so that average riding will have about 97,000 residents (same as currently in Quebec). Who knows what goes on in that mystical, magical world of redistribution committees, but in our mind the existing Windsor ridings should be shrunk, leaving areas of Windsor to be lopped on the a new riding which contains some of what is now Essex. So Windsor West becomes Windsor Center (and Masse's easy win), Windsor-Tecumseh becomes Windsor East (and another easy win for Comartin) while we get a third, new riding. Something along the lines of Tecumseh-Essex-Lakeshore, Amherstburg-LaSalle-Sandwichtown or Windsor West and the Burbs? A hypothetical riding such as that, without the more conservative hinterland of ?the county?, would likely be more NDP friendly than the current Essex riding. Could very well see Natyshak becoming the third Windsor area NDPer in such a scenerio. Yet this is all hypothetical. As things stand Watson's got Essex in a lock.
    09 09 16 Tank
    67.71.65.26
    This riding is the NDP?s to win this time around with a popular and energetic NDP candidate Taras Natyshak who has shown that he is here for the long haul. As the only candidate to gain support from 2006 over 2008, his numbers are trending upwards. The rookie federal candidate will have too much ground to make up with a Liberal party still in disarray and a Liberal leader who doesn?t sell well in retail politics, look for a big pickup for the NDP in the Essex Riding.
    09 09 13 PY
    70.52.182.159
    It'll be Nelson Santos, the mayor of Kingsville (where some of my relatives live), versus Jeff Watson and NDP/Green candidates to be named later.
    First of all, let's face the fact that the NDP's support has pretty much flat-lined around the 12,500 to about 13,700 vote mark (as per the last election), so I'm not really sure if they'll be able to get that much more.
    I'm pretty sure Windsor West and Windsor--Tecumseh might be out of the LPC's reach, but I don't think they'll abandon ship here. Now, whether Santos will be able to get over the hump (and it's a pretty big one, considering where we are here) remains to be seen, but then again, there could be a chance that he might be able to get through to people in a way that Watson might not.
    09 09 06 Observer
    89.180.225.54
    This riding is not done for the Conservatives. Liberals and NDP have good numbers. Essex is close to NDP stronghold of Windsor. Conservatives had 40% last time. That is not a good percentage to assure them victory this time around, 60% are against the incumbent MP and if there is strategic voting the Liberals or the NDP can win.
    09 09 06 Observer
    89.180.225.54
    This riding is not done for the Conservatives. Liberals and NDP have good numbers. Essex is close to NDP stronghold of Windsor. Conservatives had 40% last time. That is not a good percentage to assure them victory this time around, 60% are against the incumbent MP and if there is strategic voting the Liberals or the NDP can win.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    In her sixth election, Whelan received the fewest votes she ever had in '08. Watson's numbers dipped a bit, but he still had a 5,600 vote lead in his third time defeating the former incumbent. He'll hold the seat.
    11 04 28 pitcher
    72.38.227.162
    With the orange wave coming this will be an easy pick up. Whenever the national or provincial poll numbers are good for the NDP they win this seat. The local candidate has been working harder than anyone for 2 years and while he doesn't have the kind of public profile of his opponents he has met and chatted with more people in the riding than the others combined.



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