Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Etobicoke North


Prediction Changed
2009-08-31 15:45:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Andrews, Diana

Di Carlo, Anna

Duncan, Kirsty

Dvornyak, Alex

Gardner, John C.

Lamba, Priti

Incumbent:
Kirsty Duncan

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • etobicoke-north (160/171 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 24 Ivan
    75.119.253.78
    Kirsty who?
    Kirsty Duncan
    Most back bencher M.P.s are invisible... Kirsty is the exception. I'd challenge you to find any M.P. who has a higher profile in their riding than Kirsty. She's been to close to 1000 in-riding events and occasions (verified) since being elected. That's in 2.5 years. You do the math as to what kind of exposure she's been getting... (she's had two days in her calendar since 2008 where she was not in Ottawa and didn't have anything scheduled...)
    11 04 24
    76.10.134.130
    There is no Green candidate in this riding which will provide the margin for victory for Duncan on May .
    11 04 23 Not Non-Partisan
    70.27.3.197
    Kirsty who? No offense meant but invisible half-term MPs are pretty vulnerable and this is a volatile area. Rob Ford wasn't a huge surprise but Vince Crisanti was. John Hastings in '95 provincially (and still elected here to the TDSB ). When things go... they go. A rising Tory tide will lift all boats.
    11 04 19 rp
    64.42.209.108
    One of three Ontario ridings without a Green candidate (four nationally).
    11 04 06 MH
    174.89.123.82
    Starting in 1993, the Liberals have generally scored better than 60% of the vote in Etobicoke North. The sole exception was in 2008, when Kirsty Duncan replaced Roy Cullen and the Liberal party had to cope with voter hostility to Stéphane Dion. Duncan still got more than 48% of the popular vote; her Conservative challenger could do no better than 30%. Duncan is better known now, and Michael Ignatieff is not the burden Dion was. Barring something totally unforeseen, this should be an easy Liberal hold.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Of the Etobicoke ridings, this is the most solidly Liberal. Even though the Tories have made some inroads amongst ethnic voters, nowhere near enough to even make this competitive, let alone win this.
    11 03 27 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    174.118.61.19
    This is by no means an easy riding to pin down. The Liberals beat the Tories here by 6,000 votes. While that sounds like quite a lot, a 3,000 vote swing from one election to the next is not really that radical, and that would be enough to flip this seat. Beyond that, at 15%, this is one of the NDP's better ridings in the local region. With the other two parties tied, the NDP could even come into play if they did everything right.
    I don't see either of these two things starting to line up at this time, and hence, I project a Liberal win here.
    11 01 11 Canadian Student
    70.31.162.95
    While municipal and federal politics are nothing alike...I do think it will be interesting in the next election (if it is, say winter/sping 2011) if any Rob-Ford-Factor will roll over into this riding. Can't quite say Rob Ford is a Federal Conservative...but can't say he's much of a Kirsty Duncan Liberal either...And over the last 3 elections, we did see a Conservative rise, and a Liberal sinking... All that being said, it will be interesting to see how those Rob Ford Toronto Ridings turn in the next election...
    09 09 04 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    The sheer parachuteish incongruity of someone like Kirsty Duncan bearing the Liberal standard in this banlieue-bleakburban stretch of town led to a shocker under-50% result versus a shocker over-30% Tory result (and the NDP, finally campaigning like they meant it, crested 15%). But she's now the incumbent Etobi-pendant to King Iggy; and so what if she's more in the Dion-Kennedy young-urban-idealist vein, her trial by fire's still passed.
    09 08 31 Etobicoke North Liberal
    66.241.131.23
    I think this should be an easy win for the Liberals.
    A lot of Liberal voters sat out last time around with Stephane Dion at the helm (an estimated 4000-5000 Liberal votes didn't come out) and Kirsty Duncan still won (albeit with a lower margin of victory than her predecessor, Roy Cullen).
    Kirsty has been extremely hard at work raising her profile in the riding, and has a very experienced team at her back.
    With a much higher profile at this point, I predict a Liberal victory for the incumbent in the riding.



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