Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Guelph


Prediction Changed
2011-04-08 11:37:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bender, Philip

Burke, Marty

Garvie, Drew

Klevering, Kornelis

Lawson, John

Levenson, Karen

Stewart, Bobbi

Valeriote, Frank

Incumbent:
Frank Valeriote

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • guelph-wellington (210/242 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    A change in my previous comments. This morning I attended a Liberal rally, Mr. Ignatieff was there, the crowd was small and about a quarter of them were carrying Conservative signs. Conterary to what many of the poster believe, this isn't a left leaning riding, far from it. To say that university students and faculty are left leaning, is also totally absurd. I work at the university, know most of the faculty,many students, and I don't think they're more left leaning than most. That's not to say they're no lefties, there are, and are quite loud, but their numbers are small.
    The Tory campaign is very well organised here this time. Unlike the last election, the Greens are nowhere to be found. But this will be a Liberal hold for the following reasons: 1. Frank Valeriote has worked very hard and has been a very good MP 2. A Valeriote in Guelph is almost like a Kennedy in Massachussetts, they're hard to beat. 3. Frank Valeriote has received endorsements from individuals like Morris Twist, Cindy Robinson, Richard Chaloner and former councillor Ken Hammill ( all long time Tories ), but the most important of all the Honourable Dr. Bill Winegard, former U of G president, longtime Tory MP, the last Tory to win this riding and a Mulroney era cabinet minister.
    The contest'll be close but Frank'll come on top.
    11 04 30 J-Mo
    174.114.33.92
    I find the comments on here funny. Prognosticator: Liberal Bias! Liberal Bias!
    I don't pretend to know how the election will turn out in Guelph, but Prognosticator's idea that the U of Guelph voting controversy will be a net positive for Burke is ridiculous. It's possible that Burke will win because of the split in left-wing votes. However, as a candidate Burke is very much tainted with the ‘I'm scared of Stephen Harper’ idea that has prevented the party from winning a majority. The controversy at the University, I think, just cements this idea for most people.
    Or maybe I'm just another one of those people pushing their Liberal Bias.
    11 04 30 prognosticator15
    131.104.201.250
    An interesting riding indeed. Many partisans try to turn this into a leftist chat room, but let's see what happens on an election night.
    If Cons win, most their new votes come directly from Valeriote supporters, support does not stay the same every election.
    The best chance to beat Valeriote is to bring to the polls everyone upset with illegal student voting. Although I am not on a Burke campaign, it is clear that exploiting the upset gives Burke a chance. As a side comment, Elections Canada supports its organizers, but is not the last appeal avenue, my guess is more MAY happen after elections to try to force through courts prohibition on all pre-advanced polls.
    NDP has a small chance of winning, but contrary to Political Outsider, poll numbers cannot be the same in all ridings, here Valeriote retains an advantage. Cons in this riding are organizationally stronger than the NDP. Still TCTC, but since the Election Prediction project has to call it for someone, keeping it Liberal is just as fine as the alternative. See you all on the other side of elections to check on this and other ridings that this project indeed predicts as TCTC even today, on the 29th.
    11 04 29 Nick F.
    131.104.61.70
    Prognosticator15 sounds like the Convervative candidate's campaign manager who tried to grab the ballot box. I would point out that the event in question was declared fair and legal by Elections Canada. Guelph voters are aware of this and nobody in the riding other than members of Burke's campaign believe otherwise. I have lived in Guelph a long time and am very involved in the community and have only heard negative comments about the attempt to nullify the student votes, but in any case, this story is dead to most. I agree with the other posters who have said voters in this riding will align themselves behind Valeriote to block the CPC. Most people I've taked to say they'll do this. A similar discussion happens every year in this riding (speculation that vote splitting will help the CPC candidate win) but this never materializes and is even less likely to this time, as many in the riding are afraid of a Harper majority. The vote will be relatively close, but Valeriote will hang on.
    11 04 29 Political Outsider
    209.171.47.7
    The Liberals beat the NDP by 15.7% in Guelph in the last election (32.2% to 16.5%). This was almost identical to their margin over the NDP Ontario-wide (15.6% -- Lib 33.8%, NDP 18.2%).
    Since the Tories are slipping in support, if the NDP passes the Liberals in the polls in Ontario this weekend, Bobbi Stewart will win Guelph. If not, she won't. It's as simple as that.
    And I think she will win.
    11 04 27 prognosticator15
    131.104.201.250
    To Tim M: certainly, I did not insist the student vote does not hurt Burke. On the contrary, there will be a few Liberal votes there, many others, very few Conservative, so it certainly decreases Tory vote strength, we can agree on that.
    But the essentially illegal way of organizing the vote before the first advance poll creates a backlash and even a possible CPC legal challenge beyond Elections Canada after the vote (votes from different polls are available for all candidates to see). So, the impact on the race is not as absurd as MB insists in highly partisan comments. The challenge for Burke is to offset the strong impact of University-dependent interests willing to organize such a vote here before out-of-town students are gone, in order to strengthen leftists (a University of Guelph paper reported a university administrator wanted to paint his face if a certain number of students come to vote in this typical get-the-vote, read 'leftist' vote drive, I am not sure whether this poor soul did this after all). But the BACKLASH such events create is tremendous and turns all available vote out from the Tories, and more, and creates a tremendous opportunity for Burke IF this opportunity is well exploited. If I were Harper, I would come here again to campaign, but it seems the Tories gave up on this, possibly reading too many of the pro-Valeriote projections.
    And to correct another submission, Valeriote is not an unknown, but comes from one of the most prominent Guelph families, a part of local elite, clearly.
    Most MB comments is leftist bias, no more. The national CPC campaign, it is evident, tries to make sure all candidates push the party line and present the party views as if they are in government, not what they personally think, in particular where there are always plenty of leftist partisans (many from the University crowd) and media who smear a CPC with labels, much like on this site. Description and labeling of Burke by MB is partisan chat that this site should remain free from.
    ABC vote? Perhaps, but no stronger than in 2008, likely weaker based on the provincial party poll numbers. One must remember that Left Coalition, no matter who is in charge, is unpopular, this one issue Harper framed successfully.
    It may still be won by a Liberal, but not because of the factors MB mentions, rather because of the nature of the riding mentioned in some other posts. I do not exclude a big blue upset, though, and if this happens, reason number one will be a backlash to an illegal (call it the way it is!) openly parisan pre-advance poll vote. Watch this riding on the election night!
    Still TCTC.
    11 04 28 Nick
    173.238.74.149
    Despite optimistic predictions from Liberal supporters posting all over this website blissfully stating that there is nothing wrong with the campaign and everything is going as planned, Guelph will be a riding to watch on Monday night. Even if only half of the Green Party vote goes to the NDP combined with those who voted Liberal in 2008 fleeing sinking Steamship Liberal to the NDP you could see this riding can only realistically go one of two ways. And let's face it, only an insignificant number of votes - if that - will be leaving the Green Party for the Liberals at this stage of the game. I would not be surprised if Guelph has an NDP MP come Monday night, and I also wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives win due to vote splitting. What will surprise me is if the Liberals are re-elected.
    11 04 25 MB
    174.89.36.136
    The idea that the attempt by the Conservative candidate to prevent students from voting will increase support for the party is, of course, absurd. I hope that this site can remain free of this type of ‘grasping at straws’ partisanship and stick to logical analyses of what is going on in each riding. In the case of Guelph, other posters have correctly pointed out that the people of this riding tend to vote strategically. I have lived in Guelph for the past three elections and have found that there are many soft NDP and Green voters who tend to vote ‘ABC’ above all else. Burke is a surprisingly weak candidate compared to the conservative candidate in 2008 (not exactly helped by the perception that he has been ordered not to open his mouth for the rest of the campaign due to, among other things, racist comments). Still, the fact that the last election was closer than expected seems to be galvanizing the ‘ABC’ vote behind Valeriote. Most observers who know the riding expect a Liberal hold, with a greater margin than in 2008.
    11 04 22 Purple
    206.130.91.148
    It's getting interesting. As Burke is avoiding engaging with the other candidates, he is playing up his military background as an excuse. This may engage more right wing voters.
    11 04 22 Tim M
    99.225.32.49
    Prognosticator's comment that the youth vote won't hurt CPC is nonsense. Those young people will vote Liberal, NDP, or Greens like most young voters do. The only thing that could hurt a Liberal victory here is if the Liberal vote bleeds to the NDP (the national trend). Doesn't appear likely, though, Guelph voters seem to have jumped on the strategic voting train behind Valeriotte.
    11 04 21 MH
    70.53.47.165
    Frank Valeriote managed to hold this by almost 1800 votes in 2008 when he was a rookie and had to deal with the Dion disadvantage. He should have no problem winning in 2011, when the stars are aligned rather more favourably for him.
    11 04 20 prognosticator15
    131.104.201.250
    All the submissions here, no matter what prediction, tend to assume or claim student vote controversy hurts Burke in this riding, but the opposite is true. This controversy INCREASES Conservative chances to take this riding due to tremendous voter backlash outside of campus against such ways of casting the ballots. Not only does this activate Conservative support, it encourages the hesitating people to counterbalance such vote. I am surprised Conservatives do not campaign on this now, but people may feel it without reminder.
    Until the controversy, I thought the riding was clearly Liberal-leaning, now it is TCTC, in particular if Burke makes an issue of it more than he does now, counter possible fraud with more votes for me or something on these lines. It is true that media presents this the Liberal way, suppressing student vote or the like, but this is not the only info source if you live in the riding.
    And watch the vote count of these 700 ballots, more than at most polls, how many would be for CPC? My guess rather few.
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    The Tories only got 29% last time around and due to the large university population which not only includes students but also the staff and faculty members who generally lean to the left. The Tories have a ceiling of around 33%, so a strong split on the centre-left would be needed for them to slip up the middle and I doubt this will happen this time around as most Greens and NDP supporters are more concerned about keeping Harper from getting a majority than voting for their party, so enough will vote strategically to ensure this riding stays Liberal even if the Tories surpass the 32% the Liberals got last time around.
    11 04 17 purple
    64.7.147.105
    Should go Liberal. Valeriote is recognized name and has been a good MP. Harper is spending a lot of cash on this riding but the candidate is just a puppet and it is becoming apparent to all. Look for Liberal followed by Green followed by Conservative
    11 04 17 Johnny Chops
    216.58.90.99
    Marty Burke is a pretty strong candidate due to his years of Canadian military service. I believe voters will overlook the minor conservative controversies so I wouldn't be surprised to see a Conservative victory on election day.
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.194.251
    Real or just perceived, the whole trying to stop students from voting fiasco will only hurt the Torys, Couple with weak NDP and Green candidates, Liberal incumbent and current support for the Liberals in Ontario higher than in '08 and this will be a Liberal keep for sure!
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    This seat was already leaning Liberal, and today's controversy of the Conservatives trying to prevent students at the University of Guelph from voting in a special poll could hurt the Conservative vote here. It certainly doesn't help the Conservatives get very many other young voters here, and may turn off other voters as well.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/15/cv-election-guelph-student-vote.html
    11 04 08 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    I'm curious as to why this one was called so suddenly i hope it wasn't cause of nanos numbers as 2 other polls have tories leading in ontario and ipsos numbers out today have the tories 15 points ahead of liberals in Ontario . but this election does look like its more of a 2 way race between liberals and conservatives in Guelph , greens and ndp still a major factor but not as competitive as before. its clearly still on conservatives radar as harper visited the riding for a large rally with candidate Marty Burke . liberals could hold the seat if they can convince some left votes to come there way but not certain that happen here as greens seem pretty entrenched in guelph. but i don't have a good enough feel of race so far to come to solid conclusion yet .
    11 04 08 MF
    70.48.66.229
    I think the EP call for the Liberals here is correct. While Guelph is one of their best prospects, the Greens aren't running the same strong candidate, have a lower national profile and are devoting more resources to the leader's riding. Most of that vote was at the expense of the NDP and Liberals. And the Tory candidate is a bit of a loose cannon and is likely to lose some votes.
    11 04 08
    206.248.128.227
    The incident with the students and with Liberal support up in Ontario this will be an easy hold for the lIberals..
    11 04 09 Tony Ducey
    76.11.85.66
    I had this going CPC last election but Valeriotte beat the star candidate, Kovach. This time against a weak CPC candidate he wins the riding again.
    11 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    204.187.16.140
    With the other parties running token candidates and with NDP support being consumed in Ontario by the grits (as well as them eroding CPC support), this riding should stay Liberal.
    11 04 03 politicalwhizkd
    99.225.32.49
    Seasaw is bang on here. Valeriotte should improve his margin by a significant amount this time. If the Conservatives couldn't win last time out with a high-profile candidate and vote splitting on the left, then they won't win it this time either. The Greens ran a strong campaign last time with lots of visits from Elizabeth May (unlikely to happen this time as she focuses on her own riding), but their national polling total is declining and it will decline in this riding too. Last time, the NDP had a star candidate (Tom King) and finished fourth--they won't do any better with a largely unknown candidate.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    As a university town, this is more left leaning than surrounding areas. Also the fact the rural portions were chopped off during the last re-distribution undoubtedly helped prevent this from going Tory as under the old boundaries of Guelph-Wellington they probably would have already won this. The problem is university is out of session which will probably hurt the Greens and NDP most, but may hurt the Liberals. I would give the Liberals the edge, but if the Tories can go above 33% and the NDP and Greens hold their support than an upset is possible.
    11 03 29 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    John Lawson, Green candidate ? Who is John Lawson ? Every party is running a token candidate, which means they don't consider this riding as winnable. The last time the Greens and the NDP did better than their usual because of star candidates. The Tories had a star candidate and they lost a close one. Now with Marty Burke, John Lawson and Bobbi Stewart, no one knows any of them, which means all parties have given this on to the Liberals. Expect the Tories to get somewhere around 30%, NDP and Green to get somewhere in low teens, and for Valeriote, to get at least 40%. An easy win in the bag for the Libs.
    11 03 27 Robert Routledge
    99.224.241.87
    For the record: John Lawson is the GPC candidate in Guelph.
    11 02 06 Marco Ricci
    174.115.176.181
    I think Valeriote definitely has the advantage here going into the next election. He was able to win this seat in the 2008 election at a time when the Liberals were collapsing in Ontario. Now the Liberals are higher in the Ontario numbers than they were in 2008, and on top of that he is the incumbent. Added to that is the fact that the strong Green and Conservative candidates are not running again and have been replaced with new faces. I don't think their campaigns will be as strong as last time, particularly in the case of the Greens, who I think have peaked. Still, the vote breakdown here was unusual in 2008, and so the question is where will that 3rd place Green vote go this time?
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    66.203.195.157
    Last election, Guelph enjoyed what must have been one of the longest campaigns in history, with the by-election morphing into the general. All four parties threw everything including the kitchen sink at the riding. It was the great Green hope, with people even mumbling that Elizabeth May should run there. The NDP had their celebrity candidate. The Liberals were desperate to hang on to a once-safe riding during the depths of the Dion era. The Tories had a reasonably strong candidate and smelled blood. What emerged out of all of this? A relatively comfortable Liberal win. Guelph is a complex city, with a large university whose students and faculty flirt with the NDP and Greens, and a large suburban blue collar population who generally hew to the red/blue split along with the occasional Green protest vote. The gruelling campaign taught Valeriote that he had to work hard for a win and that the key is reminding the university voters that he is their best bet to keep the blue tide at bay.
    10 04 27 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    Have to call this the way we see it. For the following reasons Frank Valeriote will hold the seat for the Libs: 1:Mr. Harper's policies are quite popular here, Mr. Harper isn't, Mr. Valeriote has a long history in the riding. 2:Tory candidate Marty Burke is unknown, and has only been a resident of this riding for less than ten years. 3: NDP candidate Bobbi Stewart, a friend of mine, is also unknown and let's face it she's no Tom King.Expect the NDP to lose, a lot of votes and the majority will go to the Libs. 4:Unlike most other ridings, many of the old PC's here are still engaged in the old Reform/CA fight and can't accept Harper, an old Reformer to be their leader, many of whom are planning either not to vote or vote Lib. 5:Due to the previous reason CPC, isn't well organised here. Bottom line easy victory for Valeriote.
    10 03 18 Nick J Boragina
    173.32.33.116
    Don't count the greens out here. They've been polling, consistently, at high levels. Usually in the double digits nationally, if not, then at least in Ontario. I am not saying they will win here, just that you cannot count them out as possible winners. Save that for the NDP.
    10 02 06 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Well i'm going to update my prediction for Guelph as some of the blanks have been filled in as they say. we now know 2 of the 3 main candidates who will be running against incumbent mp Frank Valerlote. Those being Marty Burke who replaces Gloria Kovach as the conservative candidate . and city councillor Bob Bell who replaces popular green candidate Mike Nagy. and its tough to say how either of these new candidates will effect the race or if there party will do better or worse without them. like the green party could benefit from having a city councillor as there candidate and might attract some more mainstream votes to the party. but then again in a university town like guelph i suspect trying to be mainstream might not have much to do with the green's success here especially among the younger voters. its also unclear how much focus if any the green party will put on any riding that isn't named Saanich Gulf Islands during the next election. back to the conservatives who have come in second here in recent elections but did hold the riding before back in the 80's. They have Marty Burke as a candidate now and for me its far too early to say how he might do in the riding when compared to the past 2 candidates and i'm not sure if they feel such a riding is winnable or how much of a target it be this time as they should of really won it last time when considering guelph's history as a swing riding.
    09 10 18 seasaw
    99.225.6.203
    The last time, the race was very close, because the local CPC's were divided, there was the Brent Barr issue and longtime former Tory MP, Bill Winegard was an advisor to the Valeriote campaign, and many Tories either stayed home or voted for Valeriote. If the Tories don't have any infighting in this riding, they'd have a good shot at taking it, otherwise, will be a close two way race.
    09 09 12 MJL
    99.50.226.23
    I see a few things helping the Liberals here. Firstly, provincial and national trends are on their side. Secondly, I doubt the Greens will be able to mount the kind of campaign they did last time. For a small party, an election each year is costly, and Saanich-Gulf Islands appears to be the party's main target in its bid for a seat. The Green surge here cost the NDP and Liberals.
    Liberal hold.
    09 09 11 Insider
    99.224.137.163
    TCTC
    Others are absolutely right that this riding is too close to call. One need only look at the results of last time by individual polls. It was a 3 way race and may still be.
    09 09 08 Paul Atarsus
    66.46.250.130
    Only a Liberal would say this one's a lock for the Liberals. Anyone who's been paying attention knows that Valeriote's been tagged as a flip-flopper... during the election, he supported ?Uniting the Left?. Then, he ?clarified? saying he didn't mean that. Then when the coalition arose, he was all for it... until he was quoted in the local paper saying that maybe it wasn't the best route to go. (he was the first Liberal MP to speak out against it) Then it seems the Liberal bosses got to him, because he came out swinging saying ?Now is the time for a coalition?. But, ultimately, he ended up voting against the coalition with the Budget vote in 2009.
    09 09 07 odude22
    173.32.205.82
    This could very well be the Greens very first elected seat. Mike Nagy earned 12,454 votes in the last election. With the voters made very well known of Nagy's presence and if his team works as hard as they did last election Nagy will become the Canada's very first elected Green MP. Look for a visit from Elizabeth May and High profile Green supporters to send Nagy to Ottawa.
    09 09 07 R.O.
    209.91.149.176
    I'm not going to make a solid prediction here as we don't know who any of the candidates running against Frank Valerote are going to be. as Green candidate Mike Nagy previously said he wouldn't run again and then this week both conservative Gloria Kovach and Tom King past ndp candidate said they weren't going to run again. so with so many open nominations its unclear what the race is going to look like this time. one also must wonder why the liberals in an article on this riding were said to be salivating at the though of an election considering the desire for another one in guelph after the 2 month plus long 08 election here has to be extremly low among the voting public. Another factor although Gloria Kovach was a strong candidate for the conservatives there was contoversy surrounding her geting the nomination so a new candidate will not have to deal with that and that could have an impact on the race
    09 09 07 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    Somehow, I'm still inclined to view this as a 4-way rather than 3-way race; despite Tom King's sore 4th-place disappointment, the NDP won't be letting Guelph go without a fight, even if it means mutual cancellation w/the Greens. And my lowball prediction last time was correct: NDP + Green together *did* wind up outpolling both Liberal and CPC. Yet somehow, Valierote still won against this united-left circumstance, as one of only 2 remaining Ontario Liberal MPs W of the GTA (and, interestingly, neither of which was elected in 2006). On that count, even if it's low-hanging Tory fruit, Guelph's just as well added ‘save’ initiative for the Grits--which may be bad news for NDP/Green, and especially Green given the erstwhile carbon-tax symbiosis...
    09 08 29 JJ
    96.49.110.185
    This should be in the too close to call column. In the event of a stronger Conservative minority or a majority in the next election, this seat is one of the low-hanging fruit for the Conservatives. Also potentially a Green party seat, so it's a 3-way race. Much too close to call right now.
    09 08 23 NorthernRaven
    130.209.74.226
    I wouldn't call this one yet for Frank Valeriote. It will probably be a three way race between him, the CPC candidate and Green Candidate Mike Naggy. Naggy did exceptionally well earning 12,454 votes compared to Valeriote's 18,974, and Kovach's (CPC) 17,186. From that base expect Mike Naggy and his Green team to push hard to get him elected, as he has the best chance of winning the Green's first seat. If popular CBC radio man Tom King does not run for the NDP, then one may see much of the NDP's 9,713 votes go to Nagy.
    I would call this too close to call, later on I'll probably call it for the Green's.
    09 08 20 Jason
    99.224.248.87
    Last time it was a free for all, but the Liberals have a very strong incumbent in Valeriote. He has made good use of the past year and its unlikely that his vote count will be going anywhere but up.



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