Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Kitchener-Waterloo


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:12:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Braid, Peter

Brown, Bill

Ichim, Julian

MacLellan, Cathy

Scott, Steven Bradley

Telegdi, Andrew

Walsh-Bowers, Richard

Incumbent:
Peter Braid

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kitchener-waterloo (233/264 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 Nick. F
    174.89.37.5
    Not sure why this was switched from TCTC to Conservative. A couple of factors aren't been considered in this prediction: higher voter turnout brining out ABC voters who stayed home in 2008 and strategic voting, which as someone below said may be enough of a trend to make a difference.
    11 05 01 MB
    174.89.37.5
    I would still leave this in the TCTC category. A lot of people have mentioned poll numbers that show the Liberals down Ontario. There are a couple of problems with this. First, while the Liberal numbers may be down province-wide, the Liberal vote is very concentrated in certain areas, and KW has generally been one of them. Furthermore, the polls are extremely volatile. The last poster mentioned that the Libs. were at 21% in Ontario, yet the 2 latest Nanos polls show them at 31%...a big difference. There is such a wide range from one poll to the next at the regional level that I don't think we can make accurate predictions about them. One factor that may still help the Libs. here is voter participation...if it increases significantly, that may mean Libs. who stayed home last time will vote...and thus far, everything is pointing to the possibility of increased voter turn out. This one could still go either way.
    11 05 01 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    This one won't be close. Peter Braid won by only 12 votes the last time, but that was then, this is now. All polls aside, the records of the two MP's should determine the outcome. Telegdi was a good MP, worked hard for the riding, and talked about federal funding for things that were important in this riding. Peter Braid delivered what Telegdi only talked about for ten years. Based on the old saying ‘Actions speak louder than words’, this should be a comfortable CPC hold.
    11 04 29 All Over the Map
    76.69.146.188
    The latest poll, from Ipsos, shows the Liberal vote collapsing in Ontario - 21% in latest poll! Even if that is less prevalent here due to the lack of history for the NDP, I can't really fathom them picking up any seats, strategic voting or not.
    11 04 29 OgtheDim
    173.206.208.242
    I still think if the Liberal local riding association wasn't beholden to Telegdi, that this would have been a cakewalk for the Liberals.
    The latest polls indicate soft CPC support is bleeding away to both the Liberals and the NDP. There is a strong CPC base in this riding that would be motivated to prevent the NDP winning this seat but isn't as motivated to prevent a known Liberal from winning when the CPC look like they are heading for a minority.
    Chretien fired up the base the other day, which will make a difference. There was an article in the Globe and Mail about how the Liberals have far more volunteers here then they did in 2008.
    So what does this mean?
    CPC votes will not increase.
    The amount of NDP gains from the Liberals will be less then the amount of Liberal gains from a better GOTV.
    Should make enough difference for the Libs to get this one back.
    11 04 28 J.D. McGuire
    208.65.73.140
    Noted an article in the Waterloo Region Record today that both the NDP and Greens admitted to hearing a lot of talk of strategic voting. Given the thin victory in 2008 for the CPC, if strategic voting is going to happen (and it must be a trend for the candidates to mention it) the Liberals should re-take Kitchener-Waterloo.
    Link to the story: http://www.therecord.com/news/elections/article/523302--kitchener-waterloo-another-close-vote-anticipated
    Applicable quote: ‘MacLellan [GPC candidate] and Bill Brown of the NDP said strategic voting is what they hear when they go door-knocking.’
    11 04 26 Nick
    173.238.74.149
    Latest Nanos poll has the Conservatives at nearly 50% in Ontario, with the Liberals below 30%. No matter how angry the Liberals are about their loss in 2008 and no matter how optimistic they may be, they will not regain any of the Kitchener ridings.
    11 04 26 The Wanderer
    192.139.187.253
    K/W is extremely tight right now BUT Liberal signs are sprouting up almost daily in front yards, only a few Green and NDP. Centre-left voters got burned last time around with the vote split which is a factor above all that may well be the tipping point in the Liberal's favour. Also, Telegdi's campaign hit the ground running and is noticeably more organized. Can't tell if he'll squeak by or take it outright, but I get the strong impression that Liberals will reclaim.
    11 04 26 Gastroid
    208.65.73.107
    Steven Scott hasn't had enough money to make signs, but there is clearly a wave of support for him in K-W. Banning usage-based billing and pushing for comprehensive online privacy legislation are narrow issues, but they tend to resonate amount the pointy-headed residents of Kitchener-Waterloo. The Pirate Party could be disruptive here.
    The other comments here seem mainly Liberal partisan. Support in Ontario is even more favorable for the Conservatives right now than in 2008, so people suggesting that ‘the Stéphane Dion effect’ was a temporary dip are deluding themselves (at least in this province). Andrew Telegdi might well win, but there is no real reason to suppose that there were hundreds or thousands of K-W Liberal voters who just happened to sit out in 2008 and will return in droves for 2011. That's just wishful thinking. This really is a coin flip.
    11 04 26 A Drummond
    143.166.255.58
    Another interesting point in this riding will be the effect the Pirate has on the vote. With a significant student vote, a 1 issue candidate can have an impact on the race, particularly on an issue that is likely going to resonate with student voters.
    11 04 24 rabbit
    99.236.242.239
    if this was UK election -this would be no. 1 target seat for liberals - should not have gone tory in 2008- so as most of posts state I agree - liberal gain- signs in some sections of town heavily Liberal -ie old westmount in Kitchener and older sections near uptown waterloo- liberal red first with Green party signs second in number in other areas there are more tory signs to compete with Liberal signs as newspaper reports state far more active Liberal campaign this time doubt ndp vote and Green vote will total what did last time if this seat shows any trend will be how much Liberals win by- a win of less than 2000 votes means not a sign of significant Liberal swing required to get Libersls close to 100 seats
    11 04 25 gunther75
    99.249.12.60
    Note to Bear & Ape: attendance record usually does not matter UNLESS one party (NDP in this campaign) raises it. Then it becomes an issue. Conservative kept a higher profile than a Liberal here. With numbers as they are today in Ontario, Conservatives clearly ahead of Liberals, the incumbent has an advantage here, but with such a small margin and numbers uncertain, it is TCTC until the election day.
    11 04 23 Mark Andrew
    99.236.14.201
    I think that many people will do what I'm planning on doing. Though I'd like to vote for the Orange machine (NDP) I will vote for Telegdi to ensure that Waterloo Region does not go Tory Blue like in 2008. I also think Lib voters who stayed home in 08 because of Dion will come back out. Sorry Braid, it was fun while it lasted.
    11 04 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    67.55.38.182
    Ahhh, the conservative spin doctors are really at work dragging up former MPs attendance records. Okay, seriously. What voter besides a partisan, is going to take the former MP's attendance record into account before he or she votes? Who is going to disseminate such information? Pundits on this website? C'mon! The average voter doesn't frequent sites like this! Talk about a non-issue.
    11 04 20 MH
    70.53.47.165
    In 2008, the year of the Dion disadvantage, Peter Braid won by 18 votes. If any number of Liberal voters return to the fold, that and the ‘anybody but Harper’ factor will doom him in 2011. A Liberal pickup is almost certainly in the cards.
    11 04 20 Monterey
    173.206.37.158
    In Telegdi's last year in office he was absent more than 80 times for votes. It appears that Ignatieff's dismal attendance record is par for the course for the Liberal Caucus. I think the electorate would prefer an MP who is capable of maintaining an interest in the job, and a willingness to show up for work. Here's hoping Kitchener Waterloo keeps the Blue partnership of Waterloo Region strong.
    11 04 20 J.D. McGuire
    208.65.73.140
    The biggest factor that I would see supporting the Liberals taking this back would be the apparent lack of NDP support. The candidate wasn't registered until right at the deadline, and I have seen very few signs of NDP support in the riding. I have also received literature at my house from CPC, Liberal, and independent candidates but nothing from the NDP. Some folks who voted NDP last time around may vote strategically to unseat a Conservative, and a small swing in support should be enough for the Liberals to regain Kitchener-Waterloo, considering Braid's margin of victory (17 votes) in 2008.
    11 04 18 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    The Greens got 12.1 percent of the vote last time and have nowhere near the national profile this time thanks to May's exclusion from the debates and a focus more in BC. That vote would go mostly Liberal/NDP before going Conservative. Not to mention the Conservatives horrible record on fiscal matters, of which *fiscal responsibility* is the major thing that the Greens and Conservatives supposedly have in common. Itll be close but I think the Liberals take this one back.
    11 04 10 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This is a strong year for the conservatives in Ontario lots of signs up in the ridings i've drove thru so far and some voters also annoyed at provincial liberal government. its making for a tough election for the liberals , and some voters seem to be tuning out election or annoyed at opposition for forcing it , the dynamics just aren't working in there favour although they still geting alot of positive press from media oddly. they might gain some soft ndp and green votes in some ridings but Telegdi is not a left wing liberal so not sure what the affect be in this riding or if he able to get those votes. most polls still have the cpc leading in Ontario and if they are its more than likely Peter Braid holds this one even though it was close in 08.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    173.178.135.34
    KW and KC are going back to the Liberals.
    Nano's has a 5.7% margin of error for Ontario and shows Liberals up 9% so a minimum of 4% above their 2008 numbers. Other polls also reflect a increase of some degree over 2008 numbers in Ontario. Local Con backbencher has done nothing to distingish themselves they will go out with the tide.
    11 04 08 kam
    173.32.158.39
    My guess would be that Peter Braid will win. Most of the youth aren't going to vote in the advanced polls.
    11 04 08 joey joe joe
    173.178.135.34
    Sorry can't see the Conservatives keeping this one if the Liberals are up even 1-2% in Ontario vs. their last showing. Same for Kitchener Centre.
    Cambridge is safe for them.
    11 04 07 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.193.228
    To add to the comment about students coming out to vote, spoke with an employee at the local returning office (not in Waterloo) and she said students are registering to vote in greater numbers than in the last 4 elections. They may actually be a game changer and will be interesting to see how this plays out.
    11 04 05 Does Not Compute
    129.97.255.64
    UW out of session? Really? UW's co-op system means that the campus is active, vibrant and full of students year-round. Plenty of students were shocked and disgusted last time around with a Conservative winning the riding by a mere 17 votes. That alone will motivate more students to get out there, although whether enough support will go to a non-Conservative candidate to override the adult vote, only time will tell. Still, Peter Braid is the most vulnerable Conservative incumbent in Canada, hands down.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    With only a 17 vote margin, this is definitely one of the Liberal top targets. The advantages to the Liberals are the Tories only got 36% last time around so many NDP and Green voters will probably vote strategically this time around as well as this riding has many of the RIM workers and although some may go Tory due to their economic policies, the Liberals should also get a sizeable chunk. The advantage to the Tories is U of W is out of session thus fewer student votes who are not likely to vote for them as well as Andrew Telegdi is running again who is not particularly popular. In fact former chief Grit campaigner Warren Kinsella has in the past donated to this opponents to have him defeated. Never mind many other Liberals would probably rather not have him in their caucus. If they had a better candidate I would give them a better chance than now although they still have at least a 50% chance of retaking this even with Telegdi.
    11 04 02 Monterey
    173.206.33.12
    Andrew Telegdi was not liked by his own party, and actively disliked by everyone else. He was unable to be effective as MP in the area because of it. He should be running as an independent. Conservatives will hold this riding with a stronger margin than last time.
    11 03 30 M
    174.91.6.115
    More young people + immigrants = Liberal win is bad reasoning. The last poll to consider age found that the Conservatives lead among young people. Also, the immigrant vote is split right down the middle with Indo-Canadians more likely to vote Conservative. I can't speak for all immigrant groups but I do know that the Indians in Kitchener working for RIM tend to be from upper class, Hindu backgrounds. You would be surprised by how many of them are actually right-wing.
    11 03 22
    173.206.208.245
    Having visited this riding a few times in the last few months, I'd note a few changes from 2008.
    RIM has adding thousands of more younger people, 25-40, who may or may not vote but who will not tend to be Conservative voters. Added to that though is a massive increase in housing to the north and west with mostly older retirees, who tend to vote Conservative or people who immigrated to Canada within the last 10 years, which is an unknown as to how many actually vote.
    Not sure where that mix will leave things but this riding has changed significantly in demographics from 2008 so opinions based on what has happened may no longer be valid.
    10 03 09 OgtheDim
    204.50.205.242
    Telegdi was elected despite of himself - he never had to get a majority to get elected. Municipally, his elections were in races where the top 6 were chosen - he never came first. Federally, he was a classic recipient of Reform/Tory splitting.
    Not exactly liked by his own party, he wasn't innovative or a maverick, nor was he a good constituency MP. He represents what the Liberal party tolerated in the 90's, not what this riding is now.
    If the Libs got anybody decent to run for them, and the CPC pulls to the right during the election, this riding would go Liberal.
    10 02 01 TB
    99.236.240.6
    OgtheDim's prediction seems rather dim. Telegdi's been quite popular in the riding for many years. Also, his background in Waterloo stretches back to 1985 (municipal councillor), and held the seat from 1993 to 2008 as a federal MP - that seems like quite a lot of ‘recent local history’ to me. Braid won by less than two dozen votes in the last election. It won't happen again.
    09 11 09 OgtheDim
    204.50.205.242
    There are two defining points in this riding:
    It Tory winners have always been red Tory, not conservatives. Any move to the right would lose votes for the CPC.
    Telegdi is more tolerated then liked. If the Libs had gotten somebody with a bit more recent local history, they would win this. Telegdi was not exactly a great municipal councillor, and has kept the same awkward style all this time as an MP, winning mostly due to the Reform/Conservative split.
    This riding will most likely swing to whomever nationally is looking like winning in the last week, but it will be very close again.
    09 09 12 MJL
    99.50.226.23
    The basic question here is whether you think Ignatieff will do better in Ontario than Dion did. The answer seems pretty clear to me - yes. I think the Conservatives took this one by surprise last time and are not likely to hold the riding.
    The only thing working in their favour is low voter turnout (at least, I predict low voter turnout based on the number of people that don't want an election), since Tories tend to be more motivated to turn out. Still, it isn't going to be enough - Liberal pickup.
    09 09 11 R.O.
    209.91.149.77
    This was i believe the closest race in the country last election and Peter Braid surprised alot of people by actually winning the riding as a conservative but if you look at its history its actually often been a conservative riding. it is at the provincial level also one of only 25 seats the ontario pc's still hold and one of the few urban southwestern ontario ridings still blue at the provincial level. that being said Elizabeth Witmer is very well known and personally popular so that helped her out here. but the riding still is not really that liberal and Andrew Telegdi likely kept it liberal so long due to his strengh as an incumbent and considering his age i'm actually surprised he wants to run again here since he'd have enough years as mp to qualify for a pension by now. and i disagree that Peter Braid doesn't gain much for being mp for a year as during that year alot of big federal announments have taken place in kitchener like the one where a new economic agency for southern ontario was made and that it was going to be based out of kitchener.
    09 09 10 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    If you want to know what was likely at play behind the scale of Telegdi's vote plummet (or the raw rise in CPC vote numbers), it had more to do with '06 than '08, i.e. a turbanned Indo-Canadian candidate that year perhaps leading a certain strain of otherwise-Tory-leaning voters to park their votes with the Grits, instead. Thus, Telegdi was sitting on a false cushion of safety. But a recount squeaker remains a recount squeaker, so we have to go by that in order to judge what happens now.
    09 09 10 odude22
    173.32.205.82
    There has been a huge Liberal presence in this riding since 1993 and then all of a sudden Peter Braid comes in and 'steals' the riding by 17 votes (0.03%)? Please.. with the Conservatives becoming less and less popular and the Liberal's rising back up in the polls, this will be an easy Liberal win.
    09 09 04 Stevo
    99.251.76.167
    Okay yes, we know that many Liberals stayed home, but 10,000 of them (the amount by which Telegdi's vote total plummeted)?? Clearly something else is also at play in Kitchener-Waterloo besides Liberals sitting out an election because they disliked the leader. The Greens made significant gains (dissenting Libs? not necessarily - any Libs that are sympathetic to the Greens would've had no problem whatsoever with Stephane Dion's leadership) and the CPC made moderate gains, enough to overtake the falling Libs by 17 votes (according to the CBC election site). I actually think the Conservatives have a better chance of keeping this one than they do of keeping Kitchener-Centre. Karen Redman is far more personally popular there than Andy Telegdi is here, and the Tory vote grew in K-W whereas it remained static in K-C.
    09 09 03 pollwerker
    64.228.222.170
    Telegdi is running again so this will be a rematch of '08. The last election saw the Conservatives win here by less than 100 votes when their Party was lead the Liberals by six points in Ontario. With the Liberals leading by 6 now, a 12% swing against the government puts KW in the Red column. Braid gains very little from being an MP for less than 1 year.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    One of the closest races in the country in '08, this one will remain too close to call for a long time to come.



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