Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Mississauga East-Cooksville


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Ahmed, Waseem

Bhikha, Jaymini

Chénier, Pierre

Fonseca, Peter

Lizon, Wladyslaw

Incumbent:
Hon. Albina Guarnieri

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • mississauga-centre (61/193 Polls)
  • mississauga-east (137/189 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 04 28 Ivriniel
    216.59.247.148
    I live in Mississauga East Cooksville, and I am confident that Peter Fonseca will hold this riding. His organization had boots on the ground immediately, with signs up on the Burnhamthrope corridor within hours of the writ being dropped. The Conservative Candidate took days to get any signs up.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Albina Guarnieri may be retiring but in the 905 belt, people generally vote based on party, not candidate never mind Peter Fonseca who is well known is running this time around. In addition being immediately adjacent to Toronto, with a very high population density, over 60% immigrant and visible minority, I expect the Liberals to hold this even if the Tories do manage to cut their margins. I could see them winning by as little as 5 points, but thats the absolute worse case scenario for them.
    11 03 25 WAC
    99.230.244.3
    Even if the Liberals do poorly in the neighbouring ridings, they should be fine with a 7,000 vote lead from 2008 and a high profile Liberal like Fonseca running.
    11 03 25 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    Peter Fonseca will likely retain this seat for the Liberals when Albina Guaneri retires because of the strong Liberal numbers this riding received in 2008. But he may see a decline in his numbers without the presence of Guaneri's personal popularity. And while the Liberals did indeed do a good job finding a high-profile provincial Liberal for this riding, there was some controversy in the media when it was announced before he had informed Dalton McGuinty first. He may lose a few votes for appearing a bit opportunistic.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    66.203.195.157
    The loss of the very likeable Albina Guarnieri will be felt by the Liberals, but their candidate recruitment sure hit a home run (or at least a triple) here. A sitting provincial cabinet minister offering with certainly no guarantee even if he wins that he'll be more than a backbencher for a long time. That said, winning shouldn't be hard in one of the safer Liberal seats in the 905.
    10 12 21 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    One of the liberals safer seats in Mississauga as it has been held by Albina Guarnieri for 22 years but she is not running again due to health issues. With her not being on ballot next time it’s possible the riding becomes more competitive. The liberals seem concerned about their prospects to hold the seat as they have been looking around for a star candidate and have lured away the ridings provincial liberal mpp. Well Peter Fonseca is one of the better candidates they could find its not a sure thing being a Mcguinty cabinet minister is going to be a vote winner. when considering the fact the Mcguinty government is down in the polls and losing mpp's every week . his time in cabinet as Labour minister was far from highly successful and although he was in cabinet he oddly never managed to become a big name in Ontario. but that being said the liberals could do alot worse for a candidate here and have to lose alot of votes before riding go cpc.
    10 10 21 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.195.114
    Sadly Ms Guarnieri is bowing out because of health reasons and this will change the dynamic of this riding. As she has held the seat since the late 80's, she would have become a very comfortable choice for the electorate. A bit more interesting now but not by that much in our opinion. As we said earlier, she was able to pull off more than 50% of the vote in a bad Liberal year. Couple that with no real growth with the Torys between '06 and '08, even with 10K fewer voters casting ballots. Then add that the CPC seem to be hovering between 35% (at best) and 27% (at worst) in the polls, we just don't see this turning blue. If the CPC creeps back up towards 40% though...
    09 12 28 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    When considering current polling numbers i somehow see this one turning into more of a race than it has been in recent years as with the conservatives ahead in ontario its not unthinkable for them to be winning seats in Mississauga. and as an example the provincial conservative party won this seat before when it was polling high back in 95 and 99 elections . but of course Albina Guarnieri is a long time incumbent and well known in the riding so that needs to be considered, although the conservatives have found a new candidate for the riding Wladyshaw Lizon and he is well connected in the polish community . one thing i though that stood out here and might be something to consider is oddly the conservatives according to numbers on the pundits guide spent very little money here ( less than 40 % of the possible limit during those years ) and less than any of the other ridings in peel from 04 till 08 so there new candidate could potentially spend alot more money than the previous ones on his next campaign and he might see better results if he did that .
    09 11 03 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    In an era when the Tories are cracking the 40% ceiling and Iggy's underpolling Dion, maybe we should prepare for the possibility that even the thus far unsinkable Albina Guarnieri might be sinkable, sort in the way that nobody expected such-and-such a 905-belt Liberal MPP would fall to Mike Harris in '95, etc. I'm not prepared to take that extra step away from a Liberal prediction yet; but, just by way of bookmarking.
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    76.64.10.117
    Even in the disaster of 2008 the Liberals were able to get over 50% of the vote here. Strongest Mississauga riding for them, doesn't do anything but stay Liberal red.



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