Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Niagara West-Glanbrook


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Allison, Dean

Bieda, Stephen

Frere, Sid

Heatley, David

Jongbloed, Bryan

Incumbent:
Dean Allison

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • erie-lincoln (60/197 Polls)
  • hamilton-mountain (4/212 Polls)
  • niagara-centre (30/221 Polls)
  • stoney-creek (91/210 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 04 08 SMARTO
    207.219.71.2
    Oh Leo Lehman - Thanks for giving me a good Morning LAUGH!! This riding would only be in play if the liberals won every riding in the province of Ontario -(those days are over)
    I'll give you credit for being a dreamer -sorry your bubble will burst on election night. The better bet is the tories sweeping Niagara
    11 04 07 Scott
    76.66.56.48
    WDR... your comments could not be further from the truth. Allison is very visible in the riding, at least as much as he can be in such a large rural area. He attends most, if not all events and functions in the riding when he is not in Ottawa, and has a great relationship with many of his constituents. As far as his presence in Ottawa is concerned... again you are spouting bunk. Allison is Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee and an active member of the International Trade Committee. He was also asked by the PM to be a part of the Red Tape Reduction Commission. Even may Liberals have spoken highly of him. They even give him praise in news articles and blogs... ask Mike Savage or Glenn Pearson.
    Also, while Allison's riding also encompasses part of Hamilton, he is not the only CPC MP, and in fact, David Sweet's riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, is entirely in Hamilton. It's only the Hamilton media that don't recognize the riding of Niagara West-Glanbrook as part of Hamilton.
    The only thing you are right about is that Allison will win the riding again! This time with even greater support.
    The Lib candidate is a nobody and does not even live in the riding. He was acclaimed at the meeting, because nobody else wanted to be a sacrificial lamb. He is just like his leader... an opportunist. He is simply running so he can end up as a staffer in some grit office.
    11 04 06 WDR
    174.91.60.49
    The sad thing is, despite being an absentee candidate who has not done much for his riding, nor been a visible presence in Ottawa, Dean will probably win. As the only CPC MP from the Greater Hamilton Area, he is not quoted in the Spectator, does not help the city with the highest poverty rates in Ontario and certainly has not been an advocate for Hamilton in any way in Ottawa.
    At some point, voters will begin to turn on him as he collects a large paycheque and does nothing to help his riding.
    11 04 05 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    Point of information: in the days of the divided right, this riding leaned much more Reform/Alliance than it did PC. In 1993, Reform took over 14% more than Reform, nearly 24% in 2000, and 16% in 1997. Where the new Conservative party does do well, are in areas where Reform/Alliance did. That tells me that this riding may well be much stronger in this area than historic PC results would lead some to believe.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    This is Tim Hudak's riding provincially, but either way it is a pretty safe Tory riding. The Tories would have to fall below 20 seats before this would be in danger and there is pretty much no chance of that happening in the upcoming election.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    76.70.89.95
    This was a close one in 2004, but I don't think we'll be seeing another nail-biter like that for a while. After all, Allison won a clear majority last time, almost 30 points ahead of the second-place Liberals. And, of course, this is the home of provincial PC leader Tim Hudak. All this adds up to a safe Tory hold.
    11 02 03 Gladstone
    66.203.195.157
    This is definitely the safest Tory seat in the Hamilton-Niagara area. It's got some potentially Liberal-friendly territory in Hamilton and Grimsby, but a large rural component, the incumbency factor and the Hudak effect should be more than enough to keep it securely Conservative no matter what happens.
    09 10 20 R.O.
    209.91.149.155
    The liberals are a little crazy if they really think this one is going to be in play next election considering there current polling numbers. and lets not forget its also new Ontario pc leader Tim Hudak's riding at the provincial level. Sure Dean Allison isn't that hig profile of an mp but he did get re-elected here last election with a pretty large share of the vote. the close race in 2004 really doesn't mean anything now as things have changed so much since then and Dean Allison has the incumbent advantage now and much better known in the riding. I don't know much about the history of Ivan Luksic but honestly don't see him being that competitive here or see any liberal candidate for that matter at this time having much of a chance in this riding as at the moment this is one of the most blue ridings in ontario as they say.
    09 10 16 Les
    192.197.82.205
    As with the Conservative party at the national level, Allison's riding association is a well oiled and experienced team who are financially and operationally ready for the next election - whenever it may occur (probably not until the fall of 2010).
    The Liberal candidate, as with the NDP, CHP, and Green candidates will be fighting an uphill battle. In regards to JT's post - I was also in attendance at the Liberal nomination meeting, and while there were more individuals, including (old) members out for the event, it was far from packed. In response to the fundraising for the candidate is concerned - it is going to be difficult raising enough considering that the riding association is starting out with less than $1000 in the account. Hopefully, they will not have to take out loans as did the last candidate.
    At the end of the day... This riding will go once again to Dean Allison. Probably with an even greater level of voter support.
    09 10 09 JT
    69.196.160.195
    If you can't even spell the Liberal candidate's surname, then the rest of your assertions are also in doubt.
    I was at the Liberal nomination meeting and the place was packed. Held in the gym of the candidate's old elementary school (hmmm...which is in NWG)- there goes another assertion down the drain.
    The riding association has since held a fundraiser, raising more money at a single event than it has in a very long time. With many longtime riding members in attendance - another assertion down the drain.
    It is my understanding that the Conservative incumbent is the one who doesn't live in the riding. If residency is that important to you, then the Liberal candidate will wipe the floor with Dean. Another assertion down the drain.
    The riding is tough for Liberals but maybe ?Crazy Ivan? is just the guy they need for the job.
    09 10 06 Leo Lehman
    216.121.176.188
    Just out of curiosity RGM, how could Ivan Luksic have run for the provincial nomination after losing the federal nomination to DiIanni? Considering that the provincial election was in 2007 and the federal election was in 2008?
    If you're going to lie that outrageously, try and get your facts straight next time. Unless you think the year 2008 came before the year 2007.
    Now, like you said before you launched into your trade of fabrication and fiction, I'd actually like to talk about this election. Allison has not been a star on the federal scene and has been elected on Conservative Party coattails, not because of personal popularity. That said, Conservative coattails are pretty long in this riding. However, the last time the Liberals won Ontario, Allison won by a little more than 1% of the vote, and that was against a candidate who didn't campaign during the last week of the election. If the Ontario tides turn to the Liberals, this riding is in play.
    09 10 03 RGM
    173.34.183.126
    Now that AS has talked about some war he had during the last election with another poster, I'd actually like to talk about this election. Dean Allison will win by more than he did last time because of the awful candidate the Liberals have running here. Ivan Ludzic or ?Crazy Ivan? as he is known ran against former Hamilton Mayor, DiIanni for the Hamilton East - Stoney Creek federal nomination in the last election. When Crazy Ivan lost the nomination he went running to the Hamilton media saying the federal liberals were crooks and the nomination meeting was fixed. Then Crazy Ivan wanted to be the provincial liberal candidate in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek in the 2007 election. Ontario Liberal party officials disgusted by his display after losing the federal nomination gave Crazy Ivan the thumbs down and appointed Neren Virgin. Once again Ivan went screaming to the media that the provincial liberals were crooks. During the campaign Crazy Ivan worked hard against the Liberals within the Croatian population in the riding and more than likely turned enough votes to cost the provincial liberals the riding. I have to give the federal liberals credit for this time steering Crazy Ivan out of his home riding so they can put a candidate up who has a chance of winning Hamilton East Stoney Creek.. So somehow the Liberals have talked Crazy Ivan into stepping in as the sacrificial lamb in one of the most Conservative ridings in this part of Ontario. Dean Allison is going to whip Ivan for not living in the riding and on election day crush him at the polls. Liberals from the area will not work for Ivan in this riding and he'll lose by more than the 15,000 votes Heather Carter got beat by last time.
    09 09 07 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    This seat last time saw some of the most obnoxious trolling in the history of EPP with I'm Always Right (+ his sock puppets) waving a penis around about NW-G headed for one of the top 5 Tory margins in the *country* thanks to all the ?inbread bible belters? and the fact that Grit candidate Heather Carter wouldn't go on a date with him, or something. Anyway, let's get real. Dean Allison's share ranked only 15th in Ontario; his percentage margin was 16th; his numerical margin was 13th. But he's still safe; and now, with the reflected glory of MPP Tim Hudak as provincial Tory leader.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    Despite running the same candidate they did in '06, the Grits lost 5,000 votes here, and Allison walked away with a 15,000 vote lead. This one is nowhere near being in reach for the Liberals.



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