Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Nickel Belt


Prediction Changed
2011-03-24 10:06:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Cormier, Joe

Gravelle, Claude

Guillot-Proulx, Christine

Reynolds, Lynne

Rutchinski, Steve

Incumbent:
Claude Gravelle

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • algoma-manitoulin (3/208 Polls)
  • nickel-belt (163/190 Polls)
  • nipissing (4/175 Polls)
  • parry-sound-muskoka (2/197 Polls)
  • timiskaming-cochrane (46/186 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    A 19 point gap is a lot to overcome and there isn't anything the Liberals have done to date to be able to overcome this thus chalk this up for the NDP.
    11 04 05 NJam101
    208.96.101.3
    There is no doubt that Claude Gravelle will win. I stand by the previous comments I made. The gun registry is not a big issue among most Northerners.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Unless something dramatic happens, the NDP should hold this. The Liberals could only retake this if much of their loss was due to Liberals sitting out the last election and many of those show up again as well as the unpopularity of the gun registry hurts the NDP. Despite the unpopularity of the gun registry the Tories are so far behind they have no chance at winning this.
    11 03 23 political junkie
    208.96.71.61
    It's time to upgrade Nickel Belt to a certain victory for the NDP. Gravelle is quite popular and he is running against an unknown liberal. Cormier may be known in the eastern part of the riding but that should not enough to unseat the incumbent.
    10 03 31 David Y.
    24.222.252.146
    When John Rodriguez won this seat for the NDP in 1972, he represented the riding for 17 of the next 21 years. (1980 being the exception)
    When Ray Bonin won the seat in 1993, he remained the MP until 2008.
    The voters of Nickel Belt have shown they like to stay with the MP they've elected, for a long time.
    Easy NDP hold!
    10 02 11 NJam101
    66.225.183.214
    There is no doubt that Gravelle win easily win again. The NDP will gain support in all parts of the riding due to the natural resources outflow crisis in Northern Ontario. Mining and forestry mean everything to the region. The NDP is seen as the only party standing up for those in resource based industries. With the Conservatives in power federally and Liberals in provincially, it is only natural that those parties will lose support due to the state of the economy. Please remove this riding from TCTC and place it as solidly NDP.
    09 12 26 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    It's not *quite* correct to call the present Nickel Belt incarnation ‘NDP for generations’; after all, Sturgeon Falls has a history of being a Liberal stronghold (and the token such stronghold in Mike Harris's Nipissing constituency; as well, it saved David Ramsay's bacon in the last provincial election) to the point where I'm not so sure whether, notionally speaking, the present boundaries would have delivered the seat to the NDP (or if so, only by the tiniest margin) in any provincial election since the 1990 Rae landslide. But that's all academic in light of Gravelle's resounding 20-point-plus margin--like, on top of Gravelle's previous two runs, it was assumed that Ray Bonin's retirement opened up a potential sure thing, but *this*?!? Even Sturgeon Falls wilted. It's now Layton-populist heartland, folks.
    09 11 18 binriso
    156.34.213.226
    Won handily last time, another 8000ish vote win this time.
    09 10 05 DL
    38.99.136.242
    I think this should be called for the NDP. Gravelle won it by almost a 2 to 1 margin last time, its been NDP provincially for generations. Even if the Liberals managed to stage a bit of a comeback in northern Ontario - this riding and Timmins would stay NDP no matter what.
    09 09 05 MF
    70.48.67.120
    While the carbon tax was especially unpopular in Northern Ontario, this is a riding with a strong NDP history and base. Claude Gravelle was able to take this by a whopping 8,000 votes last time and now he enjoys the advantage of incumbency. A revitalized Liberal Party won't be enough.
    09 09 03 JF Breton
    207.134.225.57
    Le nord de l'Ontario est un monde en soi. Plusieurs commentateurs ont été surpris par l'ampleur des gains néo-démocrates dans la région, pas tant par les gains, mais par le nombre de circonscriptions remportées. Un phénomène collectif d'entraînement, couplé à une désaffection des électeurs libéraux demeurés chez eux, a favorisé ce mouvement. Est-ce que ça se reproduira cette fois-ci? Pas certain. Il m'apparaît trop tôt pour déclarer un vainqueur ici, même si Gravelle (NPD) a de bonnes chances, beaucoup plus que ses collègues néo-démocrates dans d'autres circonscriptions de la région.
    09 09 01 JJ
    96.49.104.25
    The NDP surged to a decisive victory here in 2008 with over 8,000 votes more than the Liberal candidate. NDP hold.



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