Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Oak Ridges-Markham

Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:34:00

Constituency Profile


Calandra, Paul

Hagan, Janice

Haitas, Trifon

Siciliano, John

Temelkovski, Lui

Paul Calandra

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • markham (52/184 Polls)
  • oak-ridges (74/208 Polls)
  • vaughan-king-aurora (25/215 Polls)
  • york-north (10/220 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 28 JC
    The Conservatives only won last time by the slimiest of margins. I would have to say this riding could go either way But, Lui has done a lot of hard work in this riding the past year and from a lot of people I have talked to in this riding and from traveling around the past week or so, I believe this time it will go back to being Liberal by about the same margin as last time around.
    11 04 27 R.O.
    Conservatives and Paul Calandra have the advantage here now that polling in Ontario clearly favouring tories , race has bizarely turned into Harper vs layton and somehow i don't see the affulent suburban folk in ridings like this thrilled with prospect of layton having more power in Ottawa . this riding would never vote ndp . liberal support is down from 08 and now less than what Dion got little chance of regaining any seats and more likely they lose even more seats in 905 to conservatives. the hill times has this listed as returning to liberals but honestly under these circumctances such an event seems extremly doubtful , you need momentum to win in 905 area of Ontario and liberals clearly do not have any at this stage in the game.
    11 04 25 jm
    Tight game. But LIB cannot really count on newly moved in people. They are wealthy working class families. Although they have LIB tradition but they like low Tax rate.
    11 04 26 Johnny Quest
    Calandra will sail to victory on election night unless his eday collapses. This riding was won over previous 2 years with all the mailings and public events that were held. Only Lui was going to win is if Iggy came on strong but its Ndp not Lib surging so look for +2000 vote win
    11 04 24 sp
    It will be Liberal pick up. It is one of the fastest growing ridings. A lot of new voters on this riding (mostly new Canadains moved from Scarborough) and they are most likely to vote Liberal. If Lui worked hard on the rural area of this vast rinding, then he will easily take it back.
    11 04 22 Dave
    Paul may not be perfect but his party has enough strength to carry him across the finish line. Lui did not help his cause by using his old signs from 2008 with ‘re-elect’ on them. He could have put stickers over them saying ‘Return’ or ‘Elect’. One of those decisions made in haste that came back to bite. His signs have been corrected around the riding over the past few days. I guess Lui could not use his 2004 signs as they had Martin's name and picture on them.
    11 04 20 Marco Ricci
    'Justin fever in Oak Ridges-Markham'
    Justin Trudeau visited this riding today to support Lui Temelkovski. Will it be enough to give Lui the edge?
    11 04 19 SG
    Driving along Stoufville Rd Today, it was evident that Paul Colandra has an edge. Not even one other sign on private property by any of the other candidates... Easy win for Colandra.
    11 04 19 Koby1Kanoby
    I'm seeing far more Lui signs than Paul signs posted on home owner lawns in my area (not public spaces posted by party supporters). I'm also surprised to see the Lui signs up so early. Last election, Lui's signs didn't appear on the lawns until just days before the election.
    Both Ekos & Nanos (Oak Ridges -Markham riding detail) are showing momentum for Lui.
    The missing Liberal votes will be back here for Lui, but I suspect many small C Conservatives will stay apathetic with a small few casting a protest vote.
    Still will be a nail-bitter, but I'm calling it Liberal.
    11 04 12 George
    Even by the standards of the Harper Conservatives, Paul Calandra is an invisible and irrelevant backbencher. With Liberals gaining in the polls, Temelkovski should take this seat back.
    11 04 07 MH
    All we can safely say about OR-M is that it will not be represented by the NDP or Greens. The key to this riding is whether Paul Calandra will find enough votes to counteract the revival of Liberal fortunes in Ontario. In spite of months of Tory attack ads, Michael Ignatieff is turning out to be more of a positive for the Liberals than Stéphane Dion was. On the other hand, the changing composition of the riding may offer the Conservatives the necessary votes. But that 735-vote gap won't be difficult to overcome if Lui Temelkovski picks up a bit of momentum. This one will probably be TCTC right to May 2.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    A close riding last time around so definitely one to watch as if the Liberals make any gains in Ontario this would be one of their first ones to pick up. The problem in predicting here is this one of the fastest growing ridings so a lot depends on how the new voters to this riding vote. Also a mixed riding too. Whitchurch-Stouffville is largely rural and WASP thus its voting patterns are closer to that of Durham and York-Simcoe which are solidly Conservative. King is also pretty conservative but with a large Italian and Portuguese population somewhat less so than Whitchurch-Stouffville but more so than the riding as a whole. Richmond Hill and Markham are more densely populated and more diverse thus more favourable to the Liberals although less so than Richmond Hill or Markham-Unionville. Also the Tories have been agressively targeting ethnic voters so if they gain amongst this group that could put this out of reach for the Liberals. A narrow Tory edge, but too early to call.
    11 03 25 Dave
    I think Mr Calandra should hold this seat. He has got rid of some liabilities and done better than some had expected. Lui T has been working hard since the last election but unless a trend towards the Liberals develops (unlikely) or Calandra makes some sort of huge blunder (also unlikely), he should beable to hold on even within the current riding boundaries which are long overdue for redistribution.
    10 12 01 wyatt
    While I would be somewhat surprised to see Calandra lose the seat, this will remain TCTC for a long time. It was just too slim in '08 to make a call.
    09 09 26 A.S.
    Johnny Quest: given the infrastructure already in place and in the works, any effect that ‘Greenbelt rules’ might have on Markham's raw growth is still far enough on the horizon--and by that measure, wouldn't it have an effect on the growth of Tory areas like Stouffville, as well? (There's a reason why this riding bears the Oak Ridges name, after all: a geologically important moraine lies beneath it. All the more so beneath Stouffville than Markham.) Otherwise...fascinating how, what, the two fastest growing seats in Canada? (Brampton West being the other one) happened to both be Tory/Liberal ultra-marginals; this one tilting the Tory direction. From previous patterns, the megagrowth momentum from Markham and Richmond Hill would still favour the Liberals; but in a Harper-on-the-brink-of-a-majority era, past rules aren't necessarily written in stone--esp. in a seat like this where, now, CPC is the incumbent party...
    09 09 10 Johnny Quest
    Dave, maybe you should look at 1999 results, Cons 26,083 to Lib 12,859 if that a bad campaign, I would love to see a great one. The only story that I remember someone telling me is that there was a odd guy running the canvas and a crazy woman running the phonebank. More important Calandra's contains very little of the 1999 Markham riding other than areas like Raymerville and Cornell and there is no Milliken or Unionville to pull the Con numbers down. Also Stouffville and other Con areas continue to grow where as Markham's growth (lib) is now controlled by Greenbelt rules
    09 09 07 dave
    Relax Johnny. I hope Mr. Calandra wins. He may have a good chance with the current riding boundaries if the CPC runs a strong national campaign. Dave managed to win in 1999 provincially with one of the worst run local campaigns ever. Paul's chances improve from possible to certain if he runs on the new boundaries that will likely come out in 2010.
    09 09 04 R.O.
    I wouldn't classify this one as either a conservative or a liberal riding , think it be safe to say it was more of a swing riding . and the riding is alot differnet from one part to the other , like i would say the rural stouffville part is very favourable to the conservatives yet the suburban markham portion has been favourable to the liberals at times. but either way i think Paul Calandra has the advantage here as things stand today. he is an mp in the incumbent government now and is no longer the first time conservative candidate. and his first year as mp for the riding has gone pretty good and he even got PM harper to visit the riding a few weeks back for a bbq/ local riding association event. so its clear the conservatives are taking the race here seriously .
    09 09 02
    I am a conservative, and lived in this riding for quite some time, this is NOT A CONSERVATIVE RIDING, liberal voters stayed home last time in 08, next time, with Ignatieff as leader, this is easy win for Temelkowski.
    09 09 01 Koby1Kanoby
    Unless something seriously dramatic happens between now & the election, I'm going to call it Liberal.
    Paul won by such a narrow margin, I don't believe he can do it again. Both Paul & Lui have been low profile back benchers, so I suspect many will be voting for the Party/Leader, not the MP. Harper has done little to earn the votes of the Blue Liberals/Red Tories that stayed at home last election. With Dion out of the leadership role, expect those missing Liberal votes to return.
    Also watch for the growing Greens and disenfranchised NDPs swapping their votes last minute through vote swapping to get May elected and/or to reject Harper. Lui will be the benefactor.
    09 08 31 Johnny Quest
    I read with interest the most recent post and wonder where Dave has been. Obviously not in OR-M.
    First Paul Calandra ,not clandra as you wrote, has been everywheres from King to Stouffville, not Stouffeville as you wrote, handing out federal funds to the tune of over $150 million in York Region - most of it going to Markham. So much so that Mayor Scarpitti has said publicly on numerous occasions that ‘Paul Calandra is the best MP that Markham has ever had’.
    This coming from a Liberal and worker on Lui's previous campaigns.
    Second, Calandra has been hitting households both door knocking and with lit every other week to the point that there are letters to editor complaining about the volume.
    As for: ‘hired the same brain power that helped bring David Tsubouchi's political career to an end’ - Calandra is no Tsubouchi and wont lose touch with his constits.
    Also as election records show, he out spent and out raised Lui by a large margin. Always an advantage!
    Paul Calandra will be the next Barrie's Patrick Brown, like it or not, - barely winning first time as MP and then destroying the Liberal candidate the next time and holding on till redistribution.
    09 08 31 dave
    Under the current riding boundaries, the Liberals have a chance to win back Oakridges-Markham. Paul Calandra got extremely lucky in 2008 with a last minute CPC surge that put him and a few others in 905 land over the top. While I am reasonably sure that Mr. Calandra was working away at his new responsibilities as an MP after the election, he has been almost invisible in the riding until recently with office(s) seldom open. Lui Temilowski, the former Liberal MP, has been campaigning hard since he lost his seat to Mr. Calandra. Sadly for Mr. Calandra, it is my understanding that he (Calandra) has hired the same brain power that helped bring David Tsubouchi's political career to an end. One can hope that people develop intelligence over time but it does not happen too often. Happily, for Mr. Calandra, there will likely be no election this fall which means that when electoral riding redistribution occurs in 2010, he will have some influence on his final riding boundaries. Oakridges-Markham is a large riding running from King City over to Stouffeville and will likely need to be split. Mr. Calandra should be able to pick his preferred area and possibly win in it. Mr. Temilowski might end up running (and winning) in a riding other than the one one Mr. Clandra runs in.
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Good point B.O., we did not take population growth into our assessment. Looking at the election numbers, turn out appears the same but would only make sense if the riding wasn't growing so fast. With that in mind and Temelkovski running again it will be an intersting rematch and should be TCTC.
    09 08 23 B.O.
    I disagree with Dr Bear & Prof Ape's assessment here. There was a significant drop in turnout in this riding from 2006 to 2008. In 2006 the turnout was about 67%. In 2008 the turnout dropped to around 55%. The total number of raw votes may be very similar for both elections, but this is misleading in this riding because there was a significant population increase in this riding between the two elections and consequently there was a significant increase in registered voters. In many, many ridings numerous Liberal voters stayed home. I disagree with Dr Bear & Prof Ape's assertion that this didn't occur in this riding. With such a large drop in turnout, it seems likely a large number who stayed home were indeed Liberal supporters. This riding actually looks as though it went Conservative likely because of Liberal supporters staying home. The former Liberal MP is running here again. This riding is way too soon to mark in the Conservative column because until an election actually occurs because this riding is too close to call given the closeness of the race last time.
    09 08 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    There are many Ontario ridings where the CPC (as well as the NDP) won (often surprisingly) at the expense of the Liberals. In many of these ridings it was because Liberal voters just stayed home and not because the CPC (or NDP) actually won over the voters in any large numbers (such as in Kitchener Center, Missisauga Erindale, Sudbury, the list goes on and on). This riding is different though. Lookign at the number of votes cast in 2006 and 2008 there is not a sudden drop in Liberal support that with no major rise in support for the other parties. This is one riding where the CPC had actually won over the voters. Having said that, considering the nature of the riding and the fact that Harper and company have been managing things as well as could be expected, we would predict that the CPC will hold this riding. Still very early but it is one of the few 2008 CPC pick ups that we think they will hold.

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