Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Oakville


Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:35:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chlobowski, Andrew

Ede, James

Khan, Max

Young, Terence

Incumbent:
Terence Young

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • halton (10/212 Polls)
  • oakville (200/201 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 05 01
    24.77.41.18
    This is still a heavily WASP and affluent riding. The Liberal Candidate will just not resonate with voters. Conservative Hold.
    11 04 26 Perry D
    208.65.144.247
    Maqsood (Max) Khan has been very successful using the local media to play up side issues that mean nothing to the campaign against Terrence Young.
    Like his counterpart in Halton, all he can do is spout off Iggy talking points and brings nothing to the table. Maqsood also ran for city council in Oakville knowing full well he would be the liberal candidate in the federal election, so what does that say about his committment to the city?
    Many friends in Oakville wish he would pick on and stick with it.
    Terrence Young has done a pretty good job since becoming the MP and I think its that track record which will lead him to a victory, albeit slim, in Oakville.
    11 04 25 Sooth Sayer
    72.38.31.156
    Oakville is very much up for grabs. Terence Young is a decent, likable guy but his campaign has been rife with missteps (e.g., Max Khan doesn't live in Oakville). It would otherwise be a win for the Liberals given the gaffes by Young, but the Liberals aren't doing themselves any favours. Having Rob (Mediocre Mayor) Burton in your camp is no selling point. The Oakville Hydro business smells fishy and people may remember the Chretien sponsorship scandal (not that Harper is ethical - a pox on all their houses). James Ede is impressive and should find a nice NDP riding next time out because he's a rising star in that party. Ede doesn't have a chance in Oakville but he is not part of the underperforming Town Council cabal. I predict Oakville voters will hold their noses and choose the ambitious Khan over the inert Young. Max Khan appears to have the better organization and if so he will eke this one out.
    11 04 26 Joe
    99.150.153.54
    I like Max Khan, but there is no way the Liberals will be able to push back and pick up Oakville. I can see Young getting slightly over 50% of the vote, maybe the safest Conservative riding in the 905 outside Cambridge or Burlington in my opinion.
    Should be changed from TCTC to Conservative.
    11 04 25 Harold
    24.150.177.16
    As the hockey game enters the last half of the third period........the Conservatives are up by 5 goals.
    As a forty year resident, on one hand, of all the three Federal campaigns run by Terrence Young, and even including his provincial campaigns, this is by far his worst run campaign.
    The nonsense that Max Khan lived in another riding, which could have easily been checked by a twelve year old on the internet, is surprising.
    But it's Oakville politics, even our Mayor jumps into the dance, with meetings and cancelled meetings.
    But nonsense aside, Oakville is an affluent riding with a bend towards the Conservatives. Young won by 9.9 per cent last time. I say about the same.
    And well I'll say it: The Ignatieff campaign, as of today, can barely skate on the ice.
    These are not the times of the highly respected Bonnie Brown running with the strong Jean Chretien who was leading in Ontario.
    The old rule of Oakville politics, is that you have to deduct three points from the provincial Liberal numbers to see the projected result. If I do that today, Nanos, it is Conservative plus 21.

    and when I add a few Oakville factors:
    1. that there is a religious vote in Oakville which leans Conservative
    2. the lingering bad feelings about the cancelled McGuinty Oakville Power Plant
    this riding will be going Conservative
    (Ps check my back posts on previous Election Prediction .. I am 100% accurate on my calls)
    11 04 24 Sam Izdat
    65.92.45.47
    Despite the recent shinnanigans (sp)by the Conservative candidate, which seem to mirrror the antics of the entire Harper political machine, this is a very affluent riding and the affluent tend to want to keep what they got, period, case closed. The thought of Canada becoming just another Red State, is not a problem to many Oavillians. (I don't live there, but I work there). If those NDP/Green supporters (and there are not many of them) can see the writing on the wall and vote strategically, for the Liberal, it may make it a close race.
    11 04 24 Dave
    99.231.200.50
    JC, if you say you drove by Terrence Young's campaign office and very few people were there, I will accept your word and leave it there. It has been my expereince that in campaigns such as Mr. Young's team has run in the past, volunteers assemble at certain times in the morning, afternoon and evening and then go and out and campaign. They don't hang around the office for chit chat. Phone banking often occurs from different locales or even from volunteers own homes. I can also let you know that in certain ridings in 905 where the CPC campaign is a certain loss, CPC HQ has staffed the candidate's office with paid staff to put up a kind of Petemkin village facade. Locals know they are are imports but to the causal drive by observer, it looks like an active campaign. I'm sure the Liberals would do the same for Mr. Khan if they had the money.
    11 04 22 JC
    24.150.190.94
    Well Dave, I don't know what universe your living in but your guy has thoroughly embarrassed himself the last couple of days by flinging accusations around, I drove by your campaign office the other day and saw next to no one there.
    11 04 22 Dave
    99.231.200.50
    There may be some alternate universe where the Liberal candidate is winning the 2011 election in Oakville - but it is not our universe. Down here in the real world Terence Young has so many volunteers, people who came ot help him out the last two times in 2006 and 2008 are being told to help out in other ridings where the races are tighter.
    11 04 21 Derick
    67.71.87.186
    I thought Terence might have had an easy win thanks to wide gap in the national polls, however, his campaign has been one embarrassment after another. Either he needs to keep his mouth shut or get rid of his advisers. Just look at this video: http://www.chch.com/index.php/home/item/3040
    This is just embarrassing & it's been happening throughout the campaign. People in Oakville expect better from their elected representatives and I suspect that this issue will be a big factor in the final outcome -- with the Liberal candidate pulling ahead in the end.
    11 04 21 JC
    24.150.190.94
    Young is getting desperate, first he hurled the accusation that Mayor Burton had cancelled town meetings in order to help Max Khan with his campaign, but now a second false allegation from Mr. Young has come out where he has said Mr. Khan didn't even live in the riding. Max brought the media to his house and was cleared by the Chief Election Officer for Oakville that he does live in the riding. The fact Young went off Second Hand Allegations here means his campaign must be in dire straights. In fact I had driven by his campaign office the other day and saw nearly nobody in it, I swear I couldn't believe it, The Khan campaign office is continuously busy. Young is going down in flames.
    11 04 21 Westend
    24.226.50.107
    My impression is that it will be a close call. On the east side of town, there are many more Conservative signs, however, on the west side the Liberals have turned many lawns red. The Conservative candidate is making accusations about everyone & everything. Whining in this fashion does not go down well in this riding.
    The local paper ran this headline ‘Young points finger at wrong target’. Again he was blaming the Mayor for NOT holding an opening, when the Mayor was simply following the election guidelines set forth by the Government of Canada.
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    As a largely white upper middle class suburb, this riding generally tilts to the right but does go Liberal from time to time. When the Liberals do win, they usually win nationally and with almost no chance of this happening, expect the Tories to hold this one. In 2006 the Liberals barely held this and with an incumbent running and also they won by only 600 votes despite being 5% ahead in Ontario. Had they closed the gap earlier in the campaign, they might have had a shot at narrowly recapturing this but with under 2 weeks to go, it is too big a gap to realistically overcome.
    11 04 19 The Hawk
    24.150.206.153
    Don't count out the Liberals in this riding. Terence Young has been a non-entity here, complaining about unfairness at an all-candidates meeting and just spouting the party line. Young would be well versed to come up with a few original thoughts, thoughts which may help him win again. But I don't think he will. Liberals in a squeeker, perhaps less than a thousand votes.
    11 04 17 MF
    70.48.66.229
    I think this will stay Tory. Terence Young won by a big margin last time, and since 2006 Bay Street seems to have largely given up the Liberals and has become increasingly comfortable with Harper. The results in this managerial-class commuter suburb seem indicative of this shift.
    11 04 12 R.O.
    99.246.102.2
    This is not a strong year for the liberals in Ontario and lots of voters annoyed at provincial liberal government or annoyed at election call to begin with. other than nanos most polls have not shown significant liberal improvement in the province and other day nanos had cpc ahead of liberals in ontario a poll partisans have curiously forgot to write in about. the conservatives clearly remain strong in the GTA and are far more likely to gain a couple seats than they are to lose seats. and if they were to lose a seat in GTA it be one of the ridings they barely won last time not one they won by 10% in 08. i'm just not convinced Max Khan do better than longtime liberal mp Bonnie Brown. in halton region other 2 ridings have new liberal candidates as well , last time there were liberal mp`s running in Halton ,Burlington and Oakville its not the same election as 08 , i see Terrence Young holding this seat . there also is factor of municipal involement in race , could help liberals or could backfire if voters start to think Max Khans friends on council have stopped doing job at city hall and just working on his campaign but its too early to say.
    11 04 07 MH
    70.53.47.165
    If Liberal strength in Ontario continues to increase, Oakville should return to the Liberal fold. It would not be surprising, however, if Terence Young won again. In any case, the riding is his to lose. At the moment probably TCTC but leaning to the Conservatives. In a couple of weeks the picture should be clearer.
    11 04 06 JC
    66.207.216.130
    I actually live in this riding it is a lot more Liberal then people think, Max Khan has been working the riding very hard and in fact there are quite a few lawn signs around the bronte area that are supporting Max Khan, Max represents the Northern Part of the riding on city council. This is going to be tight. Max is going to prevail by a slim margin.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Went Liberal in 2004, narrowly went Liberal in 2006 while flipped to the Tories in 2008. If the Liberals win the election, they will probably win this, but if they return the opposition benches which is most likely, the Tories will hold this. Also the Liberal plan to hike corporate taxes will likely hurt them more than help them here even if it helps them in other ridings.
    11 03 25 Dave
    99.231.200.50
    Don't know why this one is listed as Too Close To Call. Terence Young should hold Oakville - even without redistribution which would likely have helped him. The Liberals are running some sacrifice candidate who is likely putting in time to learn a bit about campaigning before picking some contest down the road that he might actually have a chance at winning.
    Mr. Young has come a long way from a narrow loss to Bonnie Brown in 2006 to a hard fought win in 2008 and onto an almost certain victory in 2011.
    11 03 18 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    The Conservatives recently promised money to Vaughan to build their new hospital, and now it seems Oakville wants in on the action with some hospital money of its own. The Mayor of Oakville is asking Conservative MP Terence Young to come up with the cash. Will the Conservatives come through, or will the Liberals be able to pick up votes if the Conservatives turn Oakville down?
    http://www.thestar.com/news/article/954938--oakville-wants-hospital-funding-too?bn=1
    11 03 12 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Well Oakville appears to be a riding the liberals are targeting based on the number of visits by Ignatieff and its close proximity to Toronto. I don't feel the liberals push to the left is going to be highly effective here. This is most definitely a pro business riding and now that the liberals have adopted ndp policies like opposing corporate tax cuts. One must wonder if there becoming increasing too left for the riding as Oakville would never vote for the ndp let some liberals seem to think acting like them is going to lead them somewhere. Add to this the challenge a new candidate like Max Khan has in getting known in a fast paced riding. And one starts to realise that Terrence Young has a better shot of holding the riding than liberals do of taking it back.
    09 12 05 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    The archetype of the affluent ‘Paul Martin Tory’ riding, Oakville just couldn't nudge back into its ‘natural’ Blue calling until it became a gimme in 2008. Though on paper, Iggy ought to be far better than Dion at repatriating those Old Oakville estate-dwelling big-shot Paul Martin Tories--yeah, as if that's some kind of ideal unilateral Liberal strategy today (or as if it's worked thus far). Anyway, as of now, it's incumbent advantage.
    09 11 05 Does Not Compute
    206.186.8.130
    Pundits' Guide and Elections Canada both report that the Liberal party nominated Ward 6 town councillor Max Khan as its candidate in late September 2009. However, as much as the LPC candidate is no longer an unknown, I still foresee a CPC victory based on several factors. First, Terence Young now has the advantage of incumbency, whereas Khan is a relatively new municipal politician whose broader appeal is unknown. Second, the recent national poll numbers are roughly the same as in the 2008 election, while the Ontario polls (and even Toronto, at times) have the Conservatives improving over the Liberals, making a swing away from Young and the CPC unlikely in government-friendly Oakville. Third, Khan is of a visible minority in a highly white, suburban riding -- terrible as that sounds, it's a factor -- and though, according to his website, he lives in Glen Abbey (part of northwest Oakville) and formerly worked at Ford, both are voting groups that the Liberals already do well in within the riding.
    The end result? It remains to be seen how Oakville voters will respond to their first new Liberal candidate and first Conservative incumbent since the early 1990s, but, at least at this point, it looks like a CPC win of similar proportions to 2008 (~5500 votes), with the NDP and Greens dueling for a distant third and fourth. Stay tuned, though; Oakville is rarely taken in a landslide.
    09 09 05 N O
    24.141.127.2
    Interesting Riding to watch, Terence Young is a popular local politician, and had avoided any major faux pas so far. On the other hand Mr. Harper is not popular among the traditionally discriminating and educated Oakville electorate. Add to this situation the potential unknown Liberal candidate, one of the current 4 contenders who do not seem to have the experience, stature, or vision to shine plus a more popular national leader like Mr. Ignatieff , and there you have an exciting situation to watch!
    09 09 02 12345
    24.150.89.249
    Terence Young won by 10% of the vote over a 15-year incumbent. Now that he is in office, the percentage to beat is higher. Plus, he brought millions of dollars in the form of GO Transit upgrades; largest investment by the Government of Canada in Oakville ever. He gets lots of profile in local media and frequently participates in community events, which is a change from when the Liberals held the riding. Tory hold.
    09 08 31 dave
    12.10.219.160
    Terence Young should hold Oakville in the event that the Liberals and others are crazy enough to force a fall 2009 election. However, in 2010, electoral district boundary redistribution starts to be a factor favouring Mr. Young even more. Oakville should clearly be split into two ridings, possibly a Bronte riding in the west and an Oakville riding in the east. The Oakville polls currently in Halton will likely be joined to the two new ridings. Mr. Young could have his pick. Since he lives in the western part of the current riding, he will likely take the most westerly of the new ridings. Sitting MP's have some influence on the final boundaries arrived at. This situation used to favour the Liberals when they held almost all of the seats in Ontario but that is no longer the case.
    09 08 27 R.O.
    209.91.149.122
    I do not believe Bonnie Brown is in the running here as from what i read the liberals are looking for a new candidate and 4 people are in the running for that nomination including a couple of city councillors but Bonnie Brown i believe has retired from politics. i expect it to be a competitive race here but willing to give Terrence Young the advantage for the time being as he has been mp for a year and next election be his third run in this riding compared to new candidates first attempt. it may appear to be a tough riding for the conservatives to hold as its near toronto but the halton suburban area is historically a conservative place and before the liberals won this seat in 93 it had been blue for a longtime at the federal and provincial levels.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    A nearly 5,500 vote lead is significant, even more so when Young had to knock off an incumbent to get it. The Tories put a lot of energy in this riding in '08, and they're not about to let it go. Brown was hampered by her poor attendance record in the House, and it shouldn't take much for Young to convince the voters to give him another term and see what he can do with it.
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    70.30.37.71
    Question: Is Bonnie Brown running again? If she is this should be very interesting. Once again another riding where the CPC won due to Liberal voters staying home. A little over 4,360 few votes cast in 2008 vs 2006; CPC up about 860 votes, NDP down about 1,670 votes, Greens up over 1,800 votes, Liberals down over 5,360 votes. Now Terence Young is well known face having been MPP in the late 90's. Given the demographics the CPC should be fairly popular (as they are) and having a CPC MP in Young might be tolerable to many who would otherwise vote Liberal. If the Liberals run a new face, we'd predict that Young keeps the riding, however if Bonnie makes another go it would ba a very tight race and we would probably give her a cautious nod.



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