Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Ottawa South

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Constituency Profile


Bleskie, Mike

Gullon, Al

Kitor, Mick

McGuinty, David

McLaren, James

Salibi, Elie

David McGuinty

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • ottawa-south (216/221 Polls)
  • ottawa-vanier (4/230 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 SouthpawPundit
    I'm still fairly sure this riding will go Liberal. David McGuinty is apparently a good constituency MP and the McGuinty brand is strong in this part of Ottawa. That said if the Ipsos-Reid poll that has the Tory 40 - NDP 34 - Lib 21 is not an outlier (though I suspect it is), look for a possible Tory upset here. As of now, I'm still giving it to the Grits.
    11 04 30 rebel
    So here we go...Larger turnout than last time. The NDP will gain, consistently with the National and Ontario figures. McGuinty will lose some ‘blue Liberals’ to the Conservatives but retain support in the important Muslim community (now likely about 14% of the riding). He will also retain Alta Vista while the Conservatives make inroads in the south and west portions of the riding. I predict my home poll 97 will finally vote Conservative!
    Liberal 27,000
    Conservative 22,000
    NDP 10,000
    Greens 2,500
    11 04 25 rebel
    Two walk-abouts this week...Poll 97 is now 13 Cons, 10 Libs and 3 NDP...fewer signs than in previous elections. Other parts of Riverside Park are mixed...quite a few Tory signs on Mooneys Bay Drive...more libs on Walkley.
    Libs dominate in Riverview and Alta Vista (route of the 88 bus).
    This weekend the national dynamics of the campaign changed abruptly with the NDP fighting or exceeding the Libs nationally. [Ignatieff was even quoted as willing to cooperate with the NDP if they got more seats than the Libs]. This kind of talk is anathema to the Manley Libs who are politically rather well clued in to national trends. If continued, this is a possible counter to the McGuinty draw that is obvious in the riding.
    As always, I will try to make a final prediction this coming weekend...
    11 04 20 MH
    David McGuinty won this by almost 10,000 votes in 2008, one of the few Ontario Liberals to widen his lead over 2008 (or 2006). The chances of his losing the seat in 2011 are very small.
    11 04 19 Stray
    Tory candidate Elie Salibi and NDP candidate James McLaren did not show up for an all-candidates debate. McLaren had a legitimate excuse (his students were having an exam...). Salibi had ‘other campaign activities’ which precluded his participation. That is NOT the way you try to defeat someone who won with almost half the vote in 2008...
    11 04 17 P.O.
    The conservative Candidate Elie is really running a good campaign this time around. I've seen him twice in my area talking to voters. He might just win by a slim margin.. will be very close this time around.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The Tories had a strong second place showing in 2004 and 2006, but not 2008. David McGuinty is too high a profile to realistically lose here as well as much of the growth has been amongst the immigrant community who despite the Tory efforts, still favour the Liberals. Also the Tories cannot stand David McGuinty and the fact they haven't put a lot of resources in taking this riding suggests they don't think they have much of a shot.
    11 04 10 rebel
    In my poll #97 walk-about, I counted 7 Conservative signs, 4 Liberal and (surprisingly) 4 NDP. The NDP have never had more than 1 sign since 2004. Conservative canvassers did the poll on Saturday and convinced a couple more home-owners to take signs that should turn up later this week. The poll is affluent with a ‘millionaires row’ (in terms of housing value) of homes backing onto the Rideau River on Revelstoke. As usual, none of these homes has a sign yet as they seem more reticent to take signs than the rest of the poll.
    11 04 08 rebel
    All four parties have nominated candidates in Ottawa South as Mike Kitor is now listed for the Green Party. I was telephone-polled by the McGuinty campaign yesterday and am surprised by the number of NDP signs in my home area of Riverside Park. An interesting issue will be whether the national trends will have any effect on the local campaign. The Conservatives have traditionally run best in the middle calss polls of this riding while the Liberals top in both the poorest polls (Heatherington) and the weathiest (West Hunt Club, Alta Vista). Nationally, there is speculation that ‘Manley Liberals’ (centre-right) may defect to the Conservatives this time and where better than in Manley's old riding?
    11 04 08 Tony Ducey
    David Mcguinty is sure to get an increased role in a Liberal caucus, he holds onto this seat.
    11 04 07 rebel
    I've started my ‘lawn sign poll’ across the riding. Alta Vista (route of the 8 bus) has very few signs...mostly Liberal, a couple of New Democrat (new this year) and a few Tory. Riverside Park (route of the 87) has a similar mixture. Still very few signs compared to 2008, but James Maclaren (NDP) has more signs out even at this stage than the NDP candidate in the climax of the 2008 campaign. There is no evidence of the Greens whatsoever...even from homes who had Green signs last time.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    The second safest Liberal riding outside the GTA (Ottawa-Vanier the safest and also the Liberals only won 6 seats outside the GTA in 2008). Nevertheless the Tories had strong second place showings in 2004 and 2006 and they had a strong showing provincially in the 1999 provincial election so although I think the Liberals have a 90% chance of holding this, I want to hold off for a couple more weeks before calling this.
    11 03 30 HM
    I call this riding ‘McGuinty South’. It will stay Liberal as long as there is a McGuinty brother to run, and by my count there are still six more McGuinty brothers that haven't yet run for a political office either federally or provincially.
    11 03 30 John
    I didn't say he was well-behaved - that was the next commenter.
    And, speaking as a resident of Alta Vista I can say that both he - and his brother too - do a lot of behind the scenes work to help out constituents, businesses and NGOs in the area. I have seen this first hand on a number of ocassions. David is not just a ribbon-cutting/school BBQ guy like MPs such as Polievre; he does real work.
    And note that I, unlike some folks in these forums, have no poilitical affiliation.
    11 03 29 C.A.B.
    The Liberals don't have many personal - or in this case, dynastic - fiefdoms left any more, but this is one of them. David McGuinty holds this one for as long as he wants it. About the only candidate I could see dethroning him is John Manley, and I certainly don't see him running any time soon.
    11 03 28 Southvoter
    I agree that David will easily take Ottawa South and that is a shame. It's funny how John (below) states that David is fairly well behaved. John, you obviously have never visited The House while it sits. There is a reason why he is Liberal House Leader, countering Mr. Baird.
    While I agree McGuinty does do a good job at his office for passports etc., he certainly has done nothing as far as securing investment goes for Ottawa South. Same goes for his brother, the premier (go figure).
    Due to name recognition, a solid McGuinty election machine that is honed in this riding both provincially and federally (same group)and strong funding, McGuinty will easily win again.This, despite the fact his party and its leader are so out of touch with most of Canada.
    11 03 27 JD
    When I met McGuinty recently he was both friendly and generous with his time. Obviously these personal qualities are very important in a campaign. McGuinty also seems to have a good reputation in parliament. This is exemplified by McGuinty's position as Liberal House Leader, in which he has been fairly well behaved. McGuinty's good behavior is in sharp contrast to other House Leaders, (especially the Conservative House Leader) who sometimes have reputations for loudness and aggressiveness. I think his positive attitude will serve him well in the coming campaign. I need not mention the arguably more important fact that his riding has consistently gone liberal since its creation.
    11 03 27 John
    Even if the rest of the party goes down in flames on May 2, this seat should still be Grit-held by days end. McGuinty is a very good constituency MP with an effective organization and a bit of a national profile. The CPC will hope to capitalize on the negativity around his brother... but won't come close.
    11 03 26 kingbyngaffair
    This is obviously a Liberal stronghold, look at the records, this has always been Liberal and incumbent Liberal David McGuinty.
    11 03 25 rebel
    Eli Salibi will be running for the Conservatives again. In 2008, this riding bucked the trend nationally by moving to the Liberals and McGuinty. Now what happened was that the more affluent or waspy suburbs (Alta Vista/Elmvale Acres) voted sharply Liberal compared to 2006, while Salibi improved the Conservative vote in about 50 polls in the south and west. He obviously has a ways to move, especially since McGuinty is now Liberal House Leader.
    09 11 21 A.S.
    Don't know how much it's the Tory-bastion-dying-off factor; after all, the '08 Tory advantage in Ottawa-Orleans and Ottawa West-Nepean was also more muted than what we'd have expected in that election, i.e. there were signs of a subtle, contrarian broad swing *t/w* the Liberal advantage in the Ottawa region. (Not unlike that which worked to the Tories' favour over the previous decade, in fact.) And here, with incumbency (unlike in OO and OWN) as well as a little familial advantage, the swing burst into David McG's best result yet--not only that, but it was only a smidgen under 50%, a year after his premier brother got a smidgen over 50%. Somehow, even with the Liberals' travails (including, maybe, those of his brother provincially), I feel he's lifted out of the danger zone he faced in his first two tries...
    09 11 17 Petrie Pundit
    This has become the second safest Liberal seat in Ottawa, and it isn't just the McGuinty family. No doubt, they have built a well-oiled machine, but last time they were challenged by a strong campaign from the Tories (probably the best run local campaign) and still won.
    I think it is partly demographics (large new Canadian population) and partly economic (lots of renters). The old Ottawa South Tory bastion is dying off and isn't being replaced. Not to say that it isn't possible for a Tory win, but it would require the perfect storm of candidate, national campaign and defining local issue.
    For the flipside of this riding, check out Ottawa-Orleans.
    09 09 24 R.O.
    Love em or hate em , the mcguinty brothers have Ottawa South all locked up . this one is staying liberal for the immediate future , no need for a long explanation as to why. and they've held it during good and bad times for the liberals at both the provincial and federal levels. so its a very solid liberal riding at the moment.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    McGuinty is too firmly entrenched here. He had a very comfortable 10,000 vote spread in '08. Salibi doesn't seem particularly motivated. I doubt the Tories will devote many resources here. Hold for the Grits.

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