Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Peterborough


Prediction Changed
2011-03-23 00:05:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bates, Michael

Bell, Michael

Del Mastro, Dean

McGregor, Betsy

Nickle, Dave

Scott, Gordon

Incumbent:
Dean Del Mastro

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • peterborough (236/240 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 02 Douglas Del Mastro
    216.221.95.157
    It's funny that most of the people who have negative things to say about Dean are from distant other ridings. Project Democracy needs to drop the partisan rhetoric if they want to be taken seriously. Anyone who says Dean brings nothing to the table doesn't know Dean, or all of the things he has done, and continues to do for this community. I fully expect another landslide victory.
    11 04 26 Gilles Fecteau
    99.227.4.187
    I share the view posted on Project Democracy about the Del Mastro:
    ‘This is a Conservative riding where the incumbent offers so little and is such a partisan bag carrier, it is distressing that he has been growing his vote.’
    I am from Don Valley West and was on the receiving end of the nasty flyers sent by conservative MP of other ridings in the 2009-2010 timeframe. I was so infuriated by them that I decided to provide funding to the liberal candidate in the riding of the largest abuser of this abuse of our tax dollars. That was Del Mastro.
    While he is still ahead in the polls, there are enough Liberal, NDP and greens to defeat him.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    This is a bellwether riding thus usually votes for the party who wins the most seats and if it doesn't it usually favours the incumbent. The Tories hold the incumbency factor and also with the Liberals still trailing by 8-10 points even post debate, it is pretty much a guarantee the Tories will win more seats than the Liberals thus the gap may tighten, but not enough to result in a seat flip.
    11 04 09 Dunner 77
    24.235.185.244
    Del Mastro is absolutely dominating the county and without question is now filling in the city with signage particularly in the north and west-end. Voters are absolutely ticked that this election has been forced upon them and Del Mastro was very smart to wait to set-up his campaign. After setting a record for total votes in the last campaign, there is no way anyone will catch this popular and rising star tory incumbent.
    11 04 08 Ptbo voter
    209.42.96.140
    Too close to call: While Del Mastro should be considered a electoral juggernaught, I think that this riding could be in play if the federal & Ontario polls continue to move. Added to this is the fact that the local Liberal campaign seems very focussed and well organized while the Cons, NDP & Greens do not. My gut feeling - based on the number of lawn signs on the ground - is that a lot of Ptbo Conservatives are sitting this one out. Perhaps they are disappointed with Harper & they connect Del Mastro to the PMO's politics of control & division.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    A bellwether riding for the most part. In the past 40 years, it has only once elected an opposition member which was Bill Domm in 1980 so whomever wins the election will probably win this. At this point the Tories have a strong edge considering their lead in the polls. Also, last time around the Liberal support was largely concentrated on the east side of Peterborough around the university which will be out of session. Thus this the Tories to lose.
    11 03 25 PTBO Pundit
    24.235.133.169
    As long as the Tories keep a walloping lead nationally, this riding is not in play at all.
    11 02 22 Mr Jamieson
    24.235.135.194
    Now that the train is booked and guaranteed (not that I believe it will ever happen) what is Del Mastro going to do for us next? He's making himself out to be a real one-trick-pony. GO already provides service to Peterborough, so he's asking for a redundant service here. He needs to speak up on the campaign trail about his not well publicised views on abortion and anti ‘hug-a-thug’ views on justice (yes he actually said that in the HOC).
    11 01 12 ptbo-student
    70.31.162.95
    Dean Del Mastro has been impressive the past few months. He's been working hard to bring a lot to Ptbo, which is really showing (while his provincial Liberal counterpart much can't be said for). Just recently (Jan 11 2011), Del Mastro announced that there will be train service to Ptbo in 2014 (this being a significant local issue for constituents), and that plans and funding are well on their way to make it happen. Del Mastro almost single-handedly (and to a lesser degree B. Devolin of next door HKLB, and Jeff Leal MPP) opposed the Metrolinx report which stated rail service to Ptbo was not viable, and made sure that the city got the service it deserved. He's also been very visible to the public on local news, and has been working hard to continue the extension of the 407 highway to the 35-115. I think Peterborough is warming quite nicely to this rising star in the Conservative caucus. Conservative win for sure!
    10 06 11 wyatt
    24.235.133.146
    With the polls staying relatively stable, there's no reason to believe this riding won't stick with the governing party. The Tories may head for a smaller minority, like they had in '06, but as has been pointed out, this seat always follows the national trend - which isn't going for the Grits at the moment.
    In fact, the one time in recent history where the incumbent was not a member of the governing party was 1980-84, when Bill Domm was the MP for the riding, sitting in Joe Clark's opposition benches.
    10 01 28 PTBO Pundit
    24.235.133.169
    This ought to be moved back to the TCTC column. I’m sure that this will be one of about two dozen Ontario ridings which will be moved back to TCTC any day now. The polls are tightening up and show the Libs taking back their Ontario stronghold. If the two main parties are tied, this riding is up for grabs.... Del Mastro supporters will holler from the roof tops that somehow this guy stands out amongst all the Tory backbenchers of the region... Even if this was true, this is a fundamental misunderstanding of the riding... In the last fifty years, there is not one instance (provincially or federally) where a Peterborough Riding incumbent has staved off a changing national / provincial trend. Further, Del Mastro has a well established record of failed promises and embarrassments over the past four years. The battery plant never existed, the waterfront redevelopment was a mess, the train is likely to finally be exposed as a hoax any day now… TCTC.
    09 09 22 Nick J Boragina
    99.234.48.43
    I noticed this riding as the most commented on. I wanted to note a few things...
    The MP was called a ‘so-con, anti-same sex marriage, pro-life, anti-abortion catholic conservatives that are a pretty bad fit for an more urban riding like this one’
    Lets review the facts. First, about this riding being more ‘Urban’. Yes, it does contain the city of Peterborough, but just because it contains a city, does not mean it votes Liberal. The Tories won Ottawa, Calgary, and Quebec City, all pretty darn urban areas. Even here in Ontario, medium sized cities like London, Kitchener-Waterloo, were won by the Tories. Other cities the same size like Barrie, and St.Cathys were won, while Guelph and Kingston were lost. Remember, however, that most of our country is ‘Urban’. Yes the Tories will win the rural areas, thats a given, but the fact that they can carry 'cities' like Peterborough is precisely the reason they are in government.
    ‘Del Mastro did get the most votes in the history of the riding’
    This was posted by a predictor who has gone to just about any random riding and predicted a Tory win (I don't recall him ever predicting anything else) As for having the most votes, I have news. Canada, at this moment, has the most people ever! And now that that moment has passed, it has even more people at THIS moment. Populations grow, having the ‘most votes ever’ means very little.
    ‘I'd say too close to call... The 9,000 vote spread in 2008 doesn't mean a whole lot’ This poster seems to illicit quite a few replies and is probably one of the reasons that this riding is so well discussed. 9,000 votes, in any riding, does mean a ‘whole lot’. Its not easy to overcome that kind of margin. It can, of course, be done, but its nothing to ignore.
    ‘As for Betsy McGregor she was acclaimed as the Liberal candidate this week. A little bewildering as she had the worst numbers in the last election of any Liberal candidate in years in the riding’ One of my pet peeves. Did you know that in the past 4 years, Barack Obama has been the #1 elected president? Of course, there's only been a single election in that time. The Liberals did worse here in the last election than they've done in just about a decade? Of course, we've only had 3 elections in that time, each seeing the Liberals get fewer seats.
    ‘Much of the way people vote is really decided on the national campaign level and only around 5% of the vote is because of the Candidate.’
    DING DING DING DING. we have a winner. Perhaps 5% or 10% or 15% of people vote based on local issues in a normal election. When there is a truly ‘hot button’ local issue, that number can raise, but normally it does not change that much. People will take riding demographics into account (take a look at poll by poll maps, especially in places like Edmonton or London, people are willing to switch to a second placed party so long as they know for certain that this is the party that can beat another) Normally people vote on the party and the leader. Del Mastro is not going to win or lose this riding, Stephen Harper is. Its a question of math. The predictors of this website have tonnes of tools available to him, as do the people who run it, and math is always a huge thing to take into account. Part of the reason for a website like this is to note the things that are indeed local.
    6 of the 15 submissions so far are from the same two people. An additional two comments are in response to some of this. This means over half the comments are just going on about same thing.
    I know I'm adding to this by commenting, but in short, this riding is just not that interesting.
    09 09 06 PTBO Pundit
    24.235.153.18
    Response to ‘University Student’: Strong Loyalties to incumbents?! Really?! One thing in common about all of Peterborough’s former incumbents… Every single one was booted from office when their party wasn’t popular anymore… This riding voted out Hugh Faulkner in 1979 … It voted out Bill Domm in 1993… It voted out Peter Adams Provincially in 1990… Jenny Carter was voted out in 1995… It voted out Gary Stewart in 2003. Actually, there isn’t a single incumbent in the last 30 years who wasn't booted out when their own party lost… The administrators are correct… This riding is TCTC…
    09 09 06 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    Wyatt: while Del Mastro benefited from the dead cat bounce of being a CPC incumbent in '08, he was still third (102 votes to 113 each for Liberal and NDP) in the combined Curve Lake polls, and Ennismore is scarcely a ‘traditional Liberal area’ (heck, it even went provincial Tory during the PC nadir of '87-90, thanks to its mayor/reeve running), And, Zipper, it's deceptive to speak of Betsy having ‘the worst numbers in the last election of any Liberal candidate in years in the riding’: remember that not only were most of those years skewed by the Peter Adams + Chretien/Martin factor, but given '08's circumstances she actually *overachieved* relative to her predecessor Diane Lloyd, losing less than a percentage point. The *real* local ‘worst-numbers’ disaster in '08 was the halved NDP tally, not the holding-their-own Liberal tally; it was Dion who blew things for the Liberals, not MacGregor (who even did better, share-wise, than the Liberals did in the last pre-Adams race of 1988). I wouldn't even classify Peterborough as much of an ‘incumbent's’ riding beyond Peter Adams himself: Adams blew out a Tory incumbent in '93, remember, and the Harris PC who landslided in and buried the NDP incumbent in '95 was himself solidly blown out in '03. It's a very peculiar, touchy Ontario-heartland riding where Liberals, Tories, *and* NDP can fluctuate between record highs and record lows, depending on the calibre of candidate and campaign at hand. On such grounds, Del Mastro's still standing on quicksand even if he went from a three-way in '06 to a solid win on '08, and even if he's riding the flash of the VIA rail link proposal for all its worth...
    09 09 06 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    Wyatt: while Del Mastro benefited from the dead cat bounce of being a CPC incumbent in '08, he was still third (102 votes to 113 each for Liberal and NDP) in the combined Curve Lake polls, and Ennismore is scarcely a ‘traditional Liberal area’ (heck, it even went provincial Tory during the PC nadir of '87-90, thanks to its mayor/reeve running), And, Zipper, it's deceptive to speak of Betsy having ‘the worst numbers in the last election of any Liberal candidate in years in the riding’: remember that not only were most of those years skewed by the Peter Adams + Chretien/Martin factor, but given '08's circumstances she actually *overachieved* relative to her predecessor Diane Lloyd, losing less than a percentage point. The *real* local ‘worst-numbers’ disaster in '08 was the halved NDP tally, not the holding-their-own Liberal tally; it was Dion who blew things for the Liberals, not MacGregor (who even did better, share-wise, than the Liberals did in the last pre-Adams race of 1988). I wouldn't even classify Peterborough as much of an ‘incumbent's’ riding beyond Peter Adams himself: Adams blew out a Tory incumbent in '93, remember, and the Harris PC who landslided in and buried the NDP incumbent in '95 was himself solidly blown out in '03. It's a very peculiar, touchy Ontario-heartland riding where Liberals, Tories, *and* NDP can fluctuate between record highs and record lows, depending on the calibre of candidate and campaign at hand. On such grounds, Del Mastro's still standing on quicksand even if he went from a three-way in '06 to a solid win on '08, and even if he's riding the flash of the VIA rail link proposal for all its worth...
    09 09 04 University Student
    70.29.125.217
    Peterborough is an interesting riding, but simpler to predict than most might expect. Alot of people believe that the university/college vote plays into the election in this riding. And while many students are actively engaged...most don't take the time to actually vote. Others say that Peterborough is a bell-weather riding that will swing the way the country goes, and while this is a more accurate way of predicting the outcome of this riding, I tend to believe, that this riding has strong loyalties to their incumbents. That being, that those incumbents are either a Liberal, or a Conservative. So unless Mr. Del Mastro quits his post (or commits a major-gaffe), you can be sure this riding will stay conservative for another term.
    09 09 03 PTBO Pundit
    24.235.153.18
    Wyatt, your contributions are fun to read... However, almost all of your commentary is based on hearsay from the previous election. Rumours that a hotel manager took down some photos and that an old lady put up some signs hardly indicate that a notorius bellwether riding has suddenly become a Del Mastro fortress. More importantly, there are two significant changes since the last election: Firstly, the Liberals got through a nomination without a fiasco for the first time since 2004. The former M.P. (arguably the most popular politician in the history of the riding) has endorsed McGregor to replace Del Mastro. The Liberals seem to have learned from their mistakes and will be united this time around. The second major change is that Del Mastro has established himself as a character who loves making big announcements but can't follow through on anything. The battery plant isn't coming.... The development on Little Lake failed.... The rail link is not coming either... Even the Peterborough Examiner, a fairly conservative newspaper, wrote an editorial on how the Rail Link probably shouldn't happen until ridership numbers are established with the GO Bus. In the end, this is a classic bell weather riding and this M.P. doesn't stand out at all. The polls are very tight... The administrators are correct... TCTC...
    09 08 30 Mr J
    24.235.135.194
    Del Mastro has not been able to deliver his key promises in two terms. It's not his fault, these were always pork barrel pie in the sky ideas now everyone knows are totally destroyed by the recession. Del Mastro has two options.
    1. Keep riding the train and risk backlash against voters who think he doesn't take his job seriously
    2. Keep a low key on the campaign trail and hope to get through on Harpers coat tails
    Both options are bad. I suspect he will ride the train and anger voters.
    The Liberals have a much stronger leader this time. The Conservatives nationally are taking on too much negative publicly on a daily basis; the whole ‘death by a thousand scratches’ thing. Ignatieff is going to come off allot better than Harper in the Campaign and bring Peterborough with him into government.
    09 08 30 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    Response to PTBO Pundit:
    You didn’t respond ‘point by point’ as you said. You ignored a couple of indisputable facts. Ayotte is a Liberal. McNutt stated in the Examiner that he, as a conservative ‘took some heat’ for running the Liberal mayor’s campaign. Your present tense in referring to McNutt as Del Mastro’s campaign manager is also wrong. He WAS his manager. You can refer to him as PAST manager, but I don’t believe Del Mastro has indicated who is running his next campaign. Explain why the ’06 Lib candidate endorsed Del Mastro. Explain why the man who ran for the Lib nomination in ’05 didn’t take a lawn sign for McGregor and his mother took Del Mastro signs. Explain why Peters changed her support at the end of the campaign and attended Del Mastro’s victory party. Explain why Nazibedah not only hosted Del Mastro’s volunteer party, but removed the photos of Adams and Paul Martin from his walls that night (he also attended Del Mastro’s victory party). Adams nominated McGregor this time, yes. But show me evidence of his work for her in ’08. If you can’t provide these explanations – let me help you...McGregor is a polarizing figure who does not have the support of traditional Peterborough liberals. Without those traditional red voters, she’ll never even hit the 20,000 vote mark.
    09 08 29 Always Voting
    99.254.222.90
    Much of the way people vote is really decided on the national campaign level and only around 5% of the vote is because of the Candidate. Now that saying, I think as a Candidate, Dean Del Mastro will have the upper hand and the Conservative campaign nationally will have the advantage as well. I expect a smaller margin of victory for Del Mastro though.
    09 08 28 JJ
    96.49.110.185
    If Peterborough (where the CPC candidate won by a 9000 margin of victory) is considered TCTC, then I'd say that many Liberal ridings (like Vancouver Quadra with a 5000 vote margin) are TCTC as well. The fact is, Del Mastro (who is a Parliamentary Secretary -- not a backbencher) won by a very healthy margin last election, and unless the tides turn dramatically in the Liberals' favour (they haven't), this will be staying in the Conservative fold. Besides, the areas outside the core region of Toronto have a tendency of strong Conservative support. CPC hold.
    09 08 27 Zipper
    142.47.39.211
    First of all, Mr. Del Mastro had a huge lead in the numbers between the 2006 and 2008 election. He took areas that were not always deemed conservative. He's young with FRESH ideas which is what Peterborough and area need. It's time to get rid of the old boys club and start living in the present! Mr. DelMastro has the vision and fortitude to get things done. As the previous few postings have shown some people are hung up on the fact that previously he was a car salesman... what's up with that? He was a prominent businessman in the city.. I could think of worse things to do.
    As for Betsy McGregor she was acclaimed as the Liberal candidate this week. A little bewildering as she had the worst numbers in the last election of any Liberal candidate in years in the riding. If the Liberals were serious about winning the next election you would think they would seek out a number of candidates and have a proper election within their own.
    09 08 27 PTBO Pundit
    24.235.191.154
    Response to Wyat, Point by point:
    Every single Tory backbencher in the region did even better than Del Mastro. He doesn’t stand out at all and he’ll never be considered for cabinet. If the Tories loose the next election, he will loose along with them. Sure, he got a lot of votes – only when the Liberals had the worst leader in history and before all his local promises either fizzled out or exploded in his face… He has been re-elected on the coat tails of the P.M. and silly promises which are generally not taken seriously anymore. Paul Ayotte can hardly be considered a life long Liberal… He and Del Mastro both have the same conservative campaign manager. Patti Peeters a Del Mastro supporter? Are you kidding?! John McNutt, Del Mastro’s campaign manager is trying to push her off City Council… Nice way to treat your ‘supporters’ I guess... Peter Adams not only campaigned for Betsy McGregor in 2008, he nominated her this time around … The Rock Haven has hosted many events for every political party, for a long time…
    Del Mastro has worked hard to get in the paper, I’ll give him that… However, the failures of all his key promises are beginning to add up… He’ll be in for a much tougher ride this time… Too close to call….
    09 08 26 Smok Wawelski
    69.159.78.163
    Binriso! If I was to spew out something like candidate X is a (insert plethora of disparaging, perjoritive comments about the left) I'd be accused of stereotyping. That being said, let's try to keep things civil here if we can.
    Even though you seem toi think that m. Del Mastro is a poor fit for the riding, there was a pretty sizeable plurality who seemed happy enough to keep him on with a increased vote! An this is usuially a close riding that is considered a bellweather.
    I say Del Mastro holds unless there is a massive swing to the Grits, and the riding reverts to its bellweather status.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    Despite my error in my previous post, Del Mastro did get the most votes in the history of the riding. And he took traditional Liberal areas like Ennismore, Curve Lake and Hiawatha. The Libs are not united under McGregor. She got the lowest vote total and lowest percentage of any Lib candidate since 1988. What about Mayor Ayotte? A lifelong liberal, he endorsed Del Mastro and embraced him at his victory party. What about Henry Clarke? He ran for the Lib nomination in '05, but didn't even take a lawn sign in '08. His mother took two Del Mastro signs for her property. Patti Peeters? The former Lib staffer and campaign worker took her McGregor sign down and put up a Del Mastro sign with a week to go. Peter Adams? Didn't campaign one second for McGregor, instead spending his time in neighboring HKLB. Joe Nazibedah at Rock Haven? Has hosted federal and provincial Lib parties on election nights for years. A week after the '08 election, he held a party for Del Mastro's volunteers. Diane Lloyd? The '06 Lib candidate publicly endorsed Del Mastro in the Peterborough Examiner. McGregor divides the Libs, and appeals only to one segment.
    09 08 24 PTBO Pundit
    24.235.191.154
    I'd say too close to call... The 9,000 vote spread in 2008 doesn't mean a whole lot. Every Tory backbencher in the region got even more than a 9,000 vote spread. People are starting to clue in that the incumbent’s over the top schemes and promises are all going nowhere. Its obvious the rail link will never happen... The province isn't on board. A GO-Bus is coming instead. The battery plant isn't coming anymore... The weird waterfront development was a flop to begin with.... The referendum on the development was even worse. 80% of residents tossed their ballots in the trash. It was arguably the biggest strategic disaster in the history of the riding.
    On the other side of things, it appears the Liberals are getting their act together... They will have an experienced candidate in Betsy McGregor. Most importantly, they haven’t had to struggle with a divisive nomination contest and will be a united team for the first time since 2004.
    Peterborough, historically always votes for the Government, so I'd say too close to call unless the polls shift dramatically.
    09 08 24 R.O.
    209.91.149.80
    The comments by the first poster just are not accurate at all on the political situation in the peterborough area . first of all Dean Del Mastro is not a right winger to the extent he claims and if he followed ontario politics he'd of known he supported the most red tory candidate possible in the recent ontario pc leadership race that being Christine Elliott and during his time as mp has worked very hard for the peterborough riding and brought numerous federal funds and projects to the area one being the return on the train so all the work he has done as mp for this area has made his past job at his families car dealership really not that important at all i think and he is also now more high profile in Ottawa as he is now a parliamentary secretary . and on the coalition the whole idea was not even popular in Ontario and in fact extremely unpopular so this riding would of rejected it if there had ever been a vote on the subject. as for the liberals and ndp there both likely to be running the same candidates who ran here in the 2008 election so without any star candidates it may be premature for some to assume the liberals were doing much better here considering the current mp's margin of victory here was almost 10000 votes last election and i just don't see the liberals being able to close that gap as polling for ontario is about the same as last time. Ignatieff did visit the riding but thats about it that they've done during there time in opposition.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    Del Mastro set riding records in 2008 for most votes received, largest percentage of the vote, and largest spread betweeen the winner and runner up. Can he duplicate that success in the next election? Maybe, maybe not. But the notion that he is in any danger of losing an almost 10,000 vote lead is pure fantasy. Peter Adams never had the success that Del Mastro had in 2008, despite winning the riding during four majorities. Chalk it up as a third term for the incumbent...
    Editor: This post is factually incorrect. In the 2000, Adams (Lib) bested his closest competition by 20% and 10,000+ votes. In 2008, Del Mastro (Con) bested his closest competition by 16% and 9000+ votes.
    09 08 22 binriso
    156.34.209.15
    Even though the Conservatives won by a large margin last time, their MP is one of those so-con, anti-same sex marriage, pro-life, anti-abortion catholic conservatives that are a pretty bad fit for an more urban riding like this one, which are usually more progressive than their rural Ontario counterparts.
    Further to this, del Mastro is quite obviously a very unintelligent man, calling the Liberals and NDP 'traitors' during the winter session around the time of the proposed coalition(look it up in hansard). Apparently democratically elected officials who have a majority coalition agreement where about 60% of voters (the greens supported the coalition too and the BQ) voted for your parties is worthy of calling them traitors, while a party where 38% of voters voted for your party and whose leader suspended the house's democratic power temporarily is just fine with him. Not to mention the fact that theres many examples of coalitions in Canada (1930s-40s-50s LIB+PC to hold back the CCF in BC, Manitoba had a few with Liberals, PCs and Progressives in coalitions and recently in 1985 in Ontario NDP + LIB parties joined together to defeat the PCs)
    Not to mention his earlier profession was a car salesman, obviously not the most popular of occupation in todays society.
    This seat is certainly winnable for other parties next time.



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