Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Richmond Hill


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

DeVita, Adam

Hastings, Cameron W.

Menegakis, Costas

Wilfert, Bryon

Incumbent:
Hon. Bryon Wilfert

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • oak-ridges (134/208 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 05 01 gunther75
    99.249.18.43
    Harper visited Richmond hill on Saturday, April 30. With Rob Ford endorsement and Globe and Mail endorsement, a huge boost has been given to Toronto CPC campaign, and with the blue wave sweeping 905 area, this riding is set for a CPC pickup.
    11 04 28 BB
    70.49.208.227
    At Gone Fishing: please reread my submission. I am not bashing the DRO for doing his job - but why have eight others standing about apologizing for the delay? Why have two voting booths (for the secret ballot, of course)and use only one? Is the other there in case the first one malfunctions? Apparently Richmond Hill was not the only riding where this was an issue. Poor planning? Lack of training? A deliberate conspiracy? Or simply a larger than usual turnout? I agree that a large turnout is a great development, but I don't agree that discouraging those with less stamina for standing in line for an hour does not diminish the country in some way.
    11 04 24 Gone Fishing
    69.63.58.153
    At BB - The DRO is SUPPOSED to only let one voter register at a time. Have you ever explored the concept of a secret ballot? Why not just have everyone in line raise their hand. The DRO could call out ‘any one who wishes to suppor the Green Party candidate please raise your hand and so on till all have been tallied and than just declare who got how many votes.
    The line is a GOOD thing. It means people care enough to vote. If they left that is there loss, not the nations.
    11 04 22 BB
    70.49.208.227
    I have just returned from voting in the advance poll at Newkirk Pool. The poll was in chaos, with a long lineup. Most of the staff were standing around watching, while only one voter at a time was being processed by the DRO. Many people simply turned around and left without voting. One wonders if this will suppress the vote in any way - if not this time, then perhaps the next time. I got the impression that most of those who stuck it out were Conservative or NDP voters, so this may cut a little bit into Mr Wilfert's margin.
    11 04 19 SG
    99.234.19.14
    My impression is that the liberal incumbent is himself getting a little worried. If he was confident he would stick to his own message and ignore the other candidates rather than use social media to highlight inconsequential, biased reports and incomplete facts. In my opinion the more the Star has to say, the closer the race is in favour of the Conservatives. I'm still confident that the Conservatives will pull through particularly with the liberals falling in the polls.
    11 04 19 Ed
    66.210.33.152
    Must be closer than we think - why else would the Star do a negative piece on Menegakis? People say he was the best president the Greek Community ever had and left before all the problems. On the other hand, Wilfert has been taking the riding for granted - saying he would be there until he dies or retires.
    11 04 17 MF
    70.48.66.229
    This could have been a serious Tory target - which would involve a ‘Vaughan + Richmond, BC strategy’ - but they don't seem to have made much of an effort in Richmond Hill. Bryon Wilfert should hang on with little difficulty.
    11 04 16 The Jackal
    74.12.43.2
    Wilfret will win this a bigger margin that 2008 as the Conservatives hit the ground running here and have a rather lackluster candidate here
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Bryon Wilfert is a strong MP and unlike in Vaughan and Thornhill where the Tories pulled off surprise wins in traditional Liberal ridings, they have a pretty low profile candidate and neither party has bothered to visit this riding, so I expect this to stay Liberal. Vaughan and Oak Ridges-Markham are the biggest battles in the York region and in fact there is a greater chance of Thornhill changing hands than this one.
    11 04 15 RF
    64.231.190.77
    Based on what I see at this stage of the campaign, I expect Bryon Wilfert to win this seat comfortably for the Liberals.
    If you drive down the main streets, you will see signs for all parties. But if you drive into the residential neighborhoods, the signs in front of homes are strongly Liberal. I think this is a much better barometer of the trend then what you see driving down Yonge St. or Bayview Ave. Combine that with the fact that Richmond Hill has been solid liberal territory for quite some time, and the recent revelations about the Conservative candidate's past (switching parties, and trouble with his own community), and it is very hard to see Wilfert and the Liberals not winning.
    If Richmond Hill goes Conservative, it means that Canada as a whole will have elected a strong Conservative majority.
    11 04 14 BB
    70.49.208.227
    I will not personally be voting Liberal this time, but am pretty confident that Mr Wilfert will again prevail in the riding. Today's expose in the Toronto Star will not help Mr Menegakis's cause, and none of the other parties has much of a track record here.
    11 04 14 LSJ
    99.237.232.91
    The Liberals will easily win Richmond Hill. I really can't see any other result. Being a Liberal may not help Bryon Wilfert but he has been a municipal councillor from 1985 to 1997 and has held this constituency since 1997. He is very engaged with the community and is personally popular with all parts of the community. In addition while the Liberals are not popular this time around, their campaign is not going as badly as it was in 2008.
    The Conservative candidate is not only an opportunist but he is generally not very well known outside the Greek community. With the news of his blunder in building the Greek community centre I'm not even sure if the Greek community in Richmond would be of much help! He has no obvious connections with the Chinese community, which is very important and no obvious connections with the Persian community, which is a powerful voting bloc in Richmond Hill.
    I suspect that with these advantages the Liberals will easily win Richmond Hill by a similar margin as 2008 or even a larger margin this time around.
    11 04 11 EP
    69.148.221.49
    I am surprised no one have pointed out that Costas Menegakis is an opportunist and a turn-coat. He was an organizer for John Manley LIBERAL leadership run and has been eyeing the Liberal nominations in other ridings (such as Scarborough Centre, a riding with high Greek population with a sitting Greek Liberal MP), for years.
    11 04 11 Ed
    24.244.93.112
    Costas Menegakis is a strong candidate. Well known in the Greek community, he is running a good solid campaign. I am surprised by the response at the doors. Sure, a few opposed, but generally a strong positive response to a Stephen Harper Conservative majority. This could go either way, but if the trend continues, this is one going blue.
    11 04 05 SF
    99.234.19.14
    Driving through the riding as I commute back from downtown it is clear that there is Conservative momentum building in Richmond Hill. In the past few days there has been a dramatic increase in Conservative presence in the riding. How Menegakis has been able to mobilize his campaign efforts so quickly after his last minute nomination bodes well for the Conservatives.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    In the past elections the Liberals have won by double digits margins, but each election seen the gap close. In 2006 the Liberals won by a bigger margin in Thornhill than here in 2008 and also the Liberals won by a bigger margin in Vaughan in 2008 and in both cases the Tories were able to pick those up, thus I wouldn't rule a Tory pickup. The big difference is the Tories had star candidates whereas here they have a relative unknown. Also Bryon Wilfert is a very strong MP, so he definitely has the edge, but still too early to call.
    11 03 28 RF
    74.14.235.65
    The Toronto Star listed this Riding as one which could go either way, suggesting that Bryon Wilfert is vulnerable. Their reasoning was fairly weak and the Tory candidate is the fourth new name in as many elections. The last election was the closest in recent years, but still a large margin for Wilfert.
    11 03 28 Stevo
    99.232.142.184
    How strange that the Conservatives have a better chance in Eglinton-Lawrence than they do up in Richmond Hill. Whatever the reason, I do think the Conservatives would need poll numbers in strong majority territory to win this riding, and I don't see that happening. I stand by my prediction from two years ago that RH stays Liberal.
    11 03 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.196.209
    For a riding that they're suppose to be targeting the CPC isn't really all that impressive here. No candidate yet and was unable to find out when there will be one. Guess they've turned their sights on some Toronto proper ridings and decided to leave this one alone for the moment.
    11 03 27 Will1987
    173.33.104.26
    This riding continues to go Liberal despite the Conservatives winning seats around this one. Is it a question of the sitting MP being very popular or something else?
    11 02 06 Marco Ricci
    174.115.176.181
    From what I can tell the Conservatives still do not have a candidate here, so it doesn't look like they are making this riding a top priority in the next election. Obviously the advantage goes to Liberal MP Byron Wilfert for now.
    10 10 26 QS
    99.240.224.153
    If Johnny Quest's rumors are true, the Conservatives are wasting their time: Klees barely won the last two provincial election he has no chance against a guy who has been sweeping this riding election after election (during the darkest days of his party).
    As for Asian candidates argument, the last election CPC ran an Asian guy who proved that the Asian community here is way too assimilated in Canadian society to vote on ethnic lines.. This riding Liberal written all over it.
    09 09 26 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    Apart from reflecting the current state of their respective federal parties (and the fact that ethnoburban constituencies fueled Klees' leadership-race strength), I don't see what Klees so obviously has that Wilfert, with five wins under his belt, doesn't--after all, Klees barely won his last two provincial elections (and likely would have lost within present RH boundaries in '03). But I, too, question Richmond Hill's continued perma-Liberality, especially considering that its Asian-heavy zones tend to be among York Region's most affluent (and the last provincial and federal results bore out a latent Tory-friendliness here even through Liberal victory). With that in mind, don't be surprised if Richmond Hill goes Richmond on us...
    09 09 25 Johnny Quest
    174.112.126.191
    I actually agree with some of Stevo points. There is one Candidate who would be game breaker here and that is Frank Klees MPP. The feds have been talking to him and he has represented Richmond Hill in the past. Frank has the connections to new Canadian communities and recent leadership campaign gives him large volunteer base (Wilfert doesn't have this) and local money connections (again Bryon doesn't have). Richmond Hill is definitely in play
    09 09 18 Stevo
    24.36.111.49
    Yes - Italian and Asian demographics equals perma-Liberal victory here, as the epicentres of those two communities - Vaughan and Markham respectively - demonstrate by being two of the safest Liberal seats in the country. As the Jewish population continues its northward migration up Bathurst Street, that Liberal inevitability may be brought down somewhat, but not enough to turn this riding blue. The Conservatives have managed to build links with the Asian communities in BC and Alberta, but such successful efforts have not largely been duplicated in Ontario.
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    70.30.37.71
    Over 6,300 few voters in 2008 vs 2006. Liberals down about 6,300 votes. Conservatives no real change in votes, NDP down 1000 votes, Greens up 1000 votes. Wilfert still took the riding handily. Will take it once again.



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