Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

St. Catharines

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Bylsma, Dave

Dykstra, Rick

Gill, Andrew

Mooradian, Jennifer

Waziruddin, Saleh

Williams, Mike

Rick Dykstra

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • niagara-centre (19/221 Polls)
  • st-catharines (210/211 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 26 Nick
    The latest Nanos polling numbers for Ontario are nearly identical to 1984, when Mulroney nearly wiped the Liberals off the map in the province. The Conservatives do better in Niagara than the provincial average. To think St. Catharines is going to be a dogfight is laughable (this same poster also predicted a Liberal win in Welland, another laughable prediction). St. Catharines is going to Dykstra and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins more than 50% of the vote at this point.
    11 04 25 Gerry Olga
    @ maribel:
    I was actually more in south St. Catharines... I haven't spent enough time in Thorold. But the point still stands -- signs are never a great way to judge a campaign. The majority of people aren't comfortable broadcasting to their neighbours how they'll vote. And I do believe this is going to be a dog-fight on May 2.
    11 04 21 Avaya
    Was in town for Passover and saw my parent's neighbours had the largest size sign for Gill. I called the Dykstra's campaign office in a Seder break (around 8pm) and told them we needed a bigger sign on our lawn. They were there 7:30 the next morning, took down my parent's older medium sized sign and replaced it with the largest size. I think that’s indicative of a well run campaign that will be working hard to get the vote out on May 2nd.
    I also drove around the south-end that morning. The most common sign was For Sale or Sold. After that, I wouldn't call it a sea of anything. Even on the stretch of Glenridge where most of the professors and university admin live it wasn’t predominately one or the other with the majority of houses being without a sign.
    11 04 19 MF
    Rick Dykstra will be re-elected. The Liberals are most certainly not ‘devouring’ NDP support in Ontario. Jack Layton is now enjoying much personal popularity and Canadians have not warmed up to Michael Ignatieff. It is the NDP that has momentum - and their surpassing the Liberals in working class SW Ontario ridings like St. Catharines is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
    11 04 15 Jenn
    I believe this will easily go to Rick. He is very visible, had brought lots of government investment to the riding and seems to have a lot of support. The liberal was an out spoken city councillor who liked to speak first and check his facts second. I recall him going after the president of the University and the students. Not a good leader. It's too bad the liberals didn't pick a better candidate who wouldn't embarrass us. I'd like to vote for them not in this election
    11 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The last few electionprediction-go-rounds the NDP had very solid support in the riding. Now their support throught Ontario is being devoured by the Liberals (and the Green support too). That being the case, this riding is much closer and we're going to be so bold to predict TCTC. It's Rick's to lose but we'd expect numbers like we saw in the '04 and '06 elections. Would be unfortunate, we rather like Rick much more than a number of his colleagues.
    11 04 08 Jimmy O
    Leo, buddy, seriously the poll that you mention is such a fringe topic... you act like this poll was created as some local Conservative ploy. Yes it was reported and was very favourable for Conservatives, so Conservatives reposted it, thats not that absurd is it?? I remember a lot of Packers fans posting about them winning the superbowl... when you support something and get good news about it you tell people.
    I would recommend you take a look around the City and based on sign visibility it seems clear at this point in the campaign team Dykstra is well ahead. I also expect Rick to dominate the local debates. I think if Gill did just gain 1000 votes based on the first 2 weeks of campaigning... he's still a few thousand at least off a victory.
    11 04 07 Leo
    It seems that Nick, along with a few other in St. Catharines, has been fooled. The ‘poll’ that the Standard printed was a fake that they had to retract. http://stcatharinesstandard.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3065825
    Based on activity from the 2 camps during the first week and their performances on the campaign trail. Sticking with my original pick of a Gill win but adding another 1,000 to his margin of victory.
    11 04 06 Nick
    With respect Johnny D, he seems to be living in a land of make believe, both locally and nationally.
    Nanos polling of the four Niagara ridings has St. Catharines at CON 55.9, LIB 26.6 and NDP 16.4. http://stcatharinesstandard.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3057358 Dykstra isn't going anywhere.
    11 04 05 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Point of information: in the days of the divided right, this riding leaned much more Reform/Alliance than it did PC. In 1993, Reform took over 14% more than Reform, nearly 20% in 2000, and 18% in 1997. Where the new Conservative party does do well, are in areas where Reform/Alliance did. That tells me that this riding may well be much stronger in this area than historic PC results would lead some to believe.
    11 04 04 Johnny D.
    If any Niagara riding is going to flip to the Liberals, it's St. Catharines. The NDP is throwing everything they have at Welland. Niagara Falls has the justice minister, and Niagara West is the home of the leader of the provincial Tories.
    St. Catharines however, has a weak MP with a low profile in the riding and who has run a sub-par campaign up to this point. Meanwhile, the Liberals have been very active, a drive down Glenridge avenue shows a sea of red signs.
    With the national conservatives going down in the polls and the liberals inching up, I'm putting this in the Liberal column. (Baring a big slide by the federal Liberals)
    11 04 04 Scott Clark
    The local newspaper just released the results of a Nano poll that has Dykstra at 56% and Gill at 26%. Put a fork in local liberals, they are done like dinner.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Although somewhat of a bellwether, a 17 point gap is a lot to overcome especially based on the current polling. Also both the Reform Party in 1997 and Canadian Alliance in 2000 got around a 1/3 of the vote thus that suggests there is a solid right wing base to begin with and when one considers the lower voter turnout and the fact the Tories will get some swing voters, it doesn't take much to get them over 40% here.
    11 03 27 Jimmy O
    Rick should win this riding, Andy Gill is a poor candidate for the Liberals, having dealt with him on many occasions as a councillor I have been left with a very poor opinion of him. Rick has delivered results for St. Catharines and is very personable.
    11 03 26 Steve V,
    Dykstra should take this one easily. The Liberal riding executives will come here and spew their usual bile at Rick, but after two elections of this no one should be fooled. Rick is a solid local MP and his party is polling well ahead of the Liberals province-wide. This one is out of the Liberals' reach.
    11 03 25 Libby
    I think Leo is hoping for some serious self fullfilling prophecy. Dykstra has worked very hard and brought in all kinds of federal cash to kickstart this community after more than a decade of liberal neglect. It's no contest at all. Good thing Gill has his day job.
    11 03 23 Leo
    The vote drop for the Liberals here was almost identical to the voter turnout drop (6,772 Lastewka vote drop, 6,541 turnout drop). With a new Liberal candidate that won't happen again.
    Dykstra is not well liked here, he exudes more arrogance than any Niagara politican in at least the last 20 years. Dykstra is someone who has more interest in being part of the Tory old-boys club that he does in helping anybody out except himself.
    Meanwhile, the Liberals have nominated almost the anti-Dykstra in Andy Gill. A Niagara fire fighter and former city councilor who's built a reputation as being one of the most responsive, helpful and effective municipal politicians St. Catharines has seen in a while.
    This will be a two-way race, as the NDP has been MIA here.
    Andy Gill and the Liberals will pick this up, probably by 1,000-2,000 votes.
    11 03 22 Swift
    2008 was a return to the normal voter turnout, not a drop from normal. There is little chance that an increase to 2006 voting levels will be one sided enough to defeat Rick. This is especially true as I expect he will pick up about a thousand extra votes.
    11 03 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Ricky D is a very visible and (in our opinion) one of the more amicable members of the CPC. A rising star in his party, easily a future cabinet minister. We cannot see him being defeated in our current political climate. Rather what we see is, with the NDP targeting this riding, a scenario where the Liberals and NDP split the vote. Allowing Rick a relatively easy ride to victory. He shouldn't take it for granted though. Although he appears well set now, if either the NDP or Liberal vote collapses, there could be a sudden upset (thinking like what happened in Edmonton-Strathcona in '08). Not in the forecast now but time will tell.
    10 03 15 JWR
    Gill is not that well known outside his ward, but that can change. I would not hold out the efficiency of St. Catharines City Council as a carrot for voters.
    It may be a more interesting race than last time, but the edge still has to be in Dykstra's corner, by a fairly wide margin.
    10 01 21 Kevin S.
    Dykstra's had a really bad last couple of months. Since November, he's been vilified for using his blackberry during a remembrance day ceremony. He's under investigation by Elections Canada & the Ethics Commissioner for some shady & potentially illegal contributions and fundraisers. And he's been the main spokesman on prorogation in Niagara, which has gone over like a lead balloon.
    A lot of people in St. Catharines are being turned off by Dykstra's ego, and with a new, young candidate running for the Liberals, this will slide over to the Liberals.
    09 09 24 A.S.
    Stevo: even if St Kitts is a GM town, there's nothing particularly surprising about the NDP ?poor showing?--it's a seat where the leftish vote (esp. provincially, under Jim Bradley) has always tended Liberal, and where the most the NDP has done is crack 30% in 1984 (and then, mainly as a parking spot for otherwise-Grits disillusioned by John Turner); and moreover, it's been a pretty aggressive (if doomed) nucleus for the Hargrovian pro-Liberal ?strategic voting? machine. Given those factors in place, the NDP's showing has actually been surprisingly *un*-poor in recent years, even '08. As for Dykstra, the scale of his last margin indicates apparent safety--but hey, it's an urban seat with a blue collar tinge, so I'll hedge on a hold. Especially if the Liberals have a fresher-than-Lastewka standard-bearer, they could bluff into a win even *without* a significant NDP vote drop...
    09 09 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Have heard things that Dykstra isn't liked in some circles, however he has gained a significant increase in his margin of victory even when voter turnout was down. Would seem that he or the CPC has convinced St Catherines voters to go Tory blue. Likely will happen again.
    09 09 23 Steve V.
    It's fun to watch the executive of the St. Catharines Liberal association come here and predict the imminent demise of the ?dirty? and ?detested? Rick Dykstra. Because a guy who racked up a 9,000 vote margin is obviously detested by everyone in the city. So much so that he ran up the biggest personal vote total since 1984. For all their talk about ?dirty? campaigns, it usually seems to be the St. Catharines Liberals who take the first dive into the mud puddle.
    09 09 17 Kevin S.
    The Liberals have nominated a young, very popular, very high profile city councillor as their candidate. This will help them as it will give their campaign a new energy/momentum that they did not have re-runing Lastewka.
    The NDP has never been a factor, and with all Niagara NDP resources focused on defending Welland, the lone NDP held riding in the region, expect that to continue, with the NDP droping 2000-3000 votes at minimum.
    Dykstra is detested by a significant majority of people in this riding, and barring a 2008 like Liberal meltdown, Andrew Gill will be the MP of St. Catharines
    09 09 11 Stevo
    A Reform target from way back, St. Catherines will not soon dislodge its current CPC MP. It is a working-class community that won't be easily impressed by a party with its second Ivory-tower professor in a row as leader. I wouldn't be at all surprised if in the next election, the Liberals slip to 3rd place, as they've already done in neighbouring Welland. Mind you, the poor showing of the NDP here in 2008 was a surprise.
    09 08 31 Steve V.
    St. Catharines is going the way of Niagara Falls and Niagara West--Glanbrook: out of Liberal reach. Dykstra cruised to a 9,000 vote win last time, taking almost every poll in the riding outside of the very core of downtown. Not going to change next time. The Liberals are nominating some unknown city councillor whose ward is mostly outside of the riding, and the guy is not really even campaigning. But Dykstra is.
    09 08 25 Leo
    The Conservatives won the last 2 elections here on the backs of two very weak national campaign from the Liberals. Dykstra is not as popular in this riding as he and his team would like to believe. And with the Liberals running a new candidate and a resurgence in the Liberals fortunes in Ontario, St. Catharines should slide easily back into the Liberal fold. Although this, as with all of Dykstra's past campaigns, will be very dirty.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Despite running the previous Member again in '08, Dykstra widened his lead to almost 9,000. Add to that his new posting as PS to Citizenship and Immigration, and he should hold the seat easily.

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