Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Simcoe North


Prediction Changed
2009-08-30 15:37:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Banigan, Richard

Clarke, Steve

Kooger, Adrian

Powell, Valerie

Stanton, Bruce

Incumbent:
Bruce Stanton

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • simcoe-grey (5/219 Polls)
  • simcoe-north (228/232 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


  •  


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    11 04 04 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    Point of information: This riding is a bit more ‘urban’ than it looks. The towns of Orillia and Midland are in this riding, these two towns make up a good proportion of voters.
    11 03 29 C.A.B.
    76.70.89.95
    Paul Devillers obviously had strong personal appeal here, and he may well have held on in 2006, as Paul Steckle did in Huron-Bruce. But without him, this riding obviously returned to its natural state - Stanton fell just short of a majority last time, with a 22-point margin over the Liberals. Provincially, the Tories held here in both 2003 and 2007, and federally, I expect the same in 2011.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    Like much of Central Ontario, this is a pretty solid Conservative riding. The Liberals are strong in Penetanguishene due to its large Francophone population and have some support in Tiny, Midland, and Tay, but Orillia, and especially Oro-Medonte, Ramara, and Severn are staunchly Conservative. The Liberals might win sections of the riding, but nowhere near enough to pull off a victory here.
    10 07 18 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    I saw the liberal express stopped in Simcoe North , anyways i find the liberals fixation on this riding to be a little odd as its been an incumbent friendly riding and only 1 non-tory mp in the last 50 years has got elected here. That was Paul Devillers who was french and had strong support in the midland area of riding. There candidate now is Steve Clarke and he ran here in 08 with little success . he doesn't really seem to have much of a profile in the riding compared to Bruce Stanton who has been mp for over 4 years now and secured alot of federal funding for the riding such as trent severn waterway repairs. his time as mp has also gone well and he significantly increased his number of polls won in 08 .
    10 01 30 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Paradoxically, what makes the Mariposa seat even more Mariposan is that it isn't so uniformly Tory-as-Leacock, but is rather historically electorally bipolar, i.e. Tory Orillia-and-rural vs Liberal Midland-Penetang--hey, as Leacock will tell you, it's more fun that way. But with Paul DeVillers and his afterglow out of the way, Bruce Stanton stomped to nearly 50% of the vote in '08, as the Grits were reduced to 5 points higher than the united NDP/Green front. If there's any borderline opposition compensation, it's in the ‘nearly’ part, i.e. Stanton's but a Tory plurality surrounded by Tory majorities, now. Find hope where you can get it, I suppose. (Incidentally, if any of '08's slate qualified as most befitting-the-land-of-Leacock, it's probably itinerant NDP stalwart Richard Banigan--funny how he wound up *here* after stints in Halton, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, etc.)
    09 08 25 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    Turnout went down...Stanton's numbers went up...way up. He'll hold the seat again without too much trouble.



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