Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-26 15:53:00

Constituency Profile


Allen, Malcolm

Game, Ray

Maloney, John

Vangoolen, David

Villella, Leanna

Walker, Ron J.

Williamson, Robin

Malcolm Allen

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • erie-lincoln (59/197 Polls)
  • niagara-centre (172/221 Polls)
  • niagara-falls (9/192 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 gunther75
    In this riding the NDP won narrowly last time because of the candidate, not the party. This time a scare of NDP anti-gun position and of the NDP government overall would drive many non-traditional NDP voters to the CPC and pass the crumbling Liberals.
    11 04 26 Nick
    Gerry, the only words worth marking are that the Liberals will finish third in this riding, not first!
    I'm not sure how to predict this. Nanos' latest results for Ontario show results almost identical to 1984 when the Liberals were decimated in the province. The NDP are polling lower in Ontario than in 2008 - their high national numbers are due to gains everywhere -but- Ontario - but as we all know NDP support is concentrated in about a dozen or so ridings in Ontario and they most certainly have momentum going into the final stretch so you can't use that to completely determine the outcome.
    Now, having said that, on numbers alone Welland should go Conservative. They are polling very high in he province as a whole and typically do far better in Niagara than the provincial average. But Welland is very tough to call as they have a very strong NDP machine working hard to keep the riding. We know the Liberals are tanking, but to assume that all of their lost support is going to the NDP is a misnomer. You are very likely to have support move to the Conservatives in working-class populist old-school NDP riding like this rather than the NDP. that's not to say Liberal support won't bleed to the NDP - it most certainly will! Ultimately, the winner here will be the one who best recruited fleeing Liberal voters to their camp and got them out to the polls on election day. It could could go NDP, but like past NDP predictions made about Oshawa on this website, Welland could just as easily go Conservative, too. If Welland does go Conservative, this may be one of, if not the only, NDP riding lost on election night.
    11 04 26 Northernguy
    The information that I am getting from the riding is that the liberal campaign is tanking, and that a substantial number of lib voters who are trying to stop a con majority are lining up behind the NDP. Word is that the cons were up by a bit a couple of weeks ago, but the ndp surge combined with the wheels falling off of the lib campaign are leading to a small ndp advantage at this point.
    11 04 24 R.O.
    A few weeks into election and Welland still remains an interesting riding that is hard to predict , its an ndp stronghold at provincial level but federally one of closest in Ontario due to ndp , conservatives and liberals all having a presence in riding. it was predicted to stay liberal last election yet John Maloney ended up coming in 3rd as voter turnout dropped and ndp and conservatives did better than expected. i'm not exactly sure why John Maloney decided to run again and what effect he is having on the race. the conservatives also have a new candidate Leanna Villella who may find more mainstream appeal than past one did. Harper and Layton have both visted the riding this election a sure sign its an ndp/ conservative race this time that likely stay close till the end.
    11 04 24 maribel
    Gerry, I don't know which streets you were on in Thorold but you must be colour blind. Allen is outsigning the libs and cons by a wide margin. Maloney has put up a few signs in the past week but is a distant third in the sign wars. If you can name a street where this is not the case let me know and I'll stand corrected.
    11 04 23 Gerry Olga
    I was in Thorold this weekend and have to tell you -- Maloney has the momentum. From Port Colborne through to Welland and other parts of this riding, Maloney is seen as the man to oppose Harper and co. Signs are never a great way to judge campaigns (especially one full of small town folks who don't want to offend) but there's a sea of red throughtout Port, Welland, South St. Catharines and the like. This one will go down to the wire, no question, but the honourable, well-liked and experienced Maloney will prevail. Mark my words.
    11 04 20 maribel
    Allen has a few advantages this time. He is an incumbent and there is a CHP candidate who will snatch a few votes from the cons. Last time rogue New Democrat Jody Dibartolomeo lost the NDP nomination and ran against Allen as an independent and got 600 votes many of which would otherwise have gone to the NDP. Allen also has a large and experienced election team. The Conservative candidate is a political neophyte who has been avoiding debates and is trying to sail in on Harper's coattails. Maloney, although a decent fellow, looks like he's seen better days. It's a two way race between Villella and Allen and I think Allen will pull it off.
    11 04 19
    I spent the day in the riding. The Liberal campaign has collapsed..
    The NDP campaign has motivated their based and are poaching Liberals voters determined to stop Harper from winning a majority.. This being said Allen will be returned due to the increasing his vote at the expense of the Liberals..
    11 04 17 MF
    With Jack Layton enjoying much popularity and the NDP campaign on the upswing, I think Malcolm Allen will be re-elected in Welland.
    11 04 17 bill_bbarton@gmail.com
    This is a two way race between the NDP and the Tories. The Liberal campaign is in the dumps as evidenced by the fact that Maloney is being out-signed by at least 4-1 by both Allen and Villella. Allen has obviously picked up soft Liberals who are parking their votes with the NDP strategically to prevent a Conservative upset. Strategic voting in Welland clearly means voting NDP and it looks like, at this point at least, that strategic voting will keep the seat Orange on election day.
    11 04 09 binriso
    This seat is really up in the air now, with the NDP only winning by 1-2 percent last time this may open up the Liberals or CPC to win. Hard to tell which one though as they both seem to have decent candidates and should be a close race no matter who wins.
    11 04 09 Nick
    I think it's worth noting that despite Nanos' polling show a ‘collapse’ in NDP vote in Ontario - and these polls, by the way, have been very fluid with wildly changing numbers with each release - the NDP have performed far better in a riding like Welland than they do in the province as a whole. With that said, if the reduction provincial NDP support does have an impact here, it will benefit the Conservatives, not the Liberals, as vote splitting will become more of a factor. It is also a myth common to Liberal supporters to automatically assume that lost NDP votes automatically equal gained Liberal votes. These are important things to consider when trying to peg how this riding will trend.
    11 04 08
    You do realize your IP address is posted on all of your posts, and you've posted this same message to all TCTC NDP ridings in Ontario.
    Anyway, I think this one will be a tough 3-way race, but I do give Allen the incumbent advantage.
    11 04 08
    The NDP vote has collapsed in Ontario from 23% down to 11%..This seat will return to the Liberals with the former MP re-contesting the seat.
    11 04 06 Nick
    With respect to Can-eh-dian Redhead, I wouldn't put much weight into the sign war as the incumbent candidate always starts out the gate strong. One only needs to look at the neighbouring Tory ridings to see this, albeit all the neighbours are ‘safe’ Tory ridings while Welland is far from a safe NDP riding. Further, Liberal supporters are out to lunch if they think they have a realistic chance of winning Welland. They'll end up with a strong result as always, but it will still be a third-place result. That leaves us with the NDP and the Conservatives, and it will be one hell of a slugfest. Current polls have the Tories several points ahead of the NDP in Welland, and it looks like the region is trending away from the NDP in general. It will be interesting to see how the campaign pans out and what happens here throughout April. If the Tories manage to pull off a majority, this riding is all but theirs. If we end up with the status quo, a toss-up. My gut feeling is that the local numbers won't change much and the Tories will pull off a win here, but either way - a Tory win or an NDP win - it will be close.
    11 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The daily Nanos polls have shown one very obvious trend in Ontario and that is the Liberals steadily increasing their support. At the moment, that support is midway between 2004 and 2006 levels which would (all things being equal) translate into about 64-65 seats in Ontario (all things are not equal and that is why we are in sites like this). Another telling aspect of these polls is that the regained support is partially from the CPC but more so from the NDP. With such trends we'd expect the Liberals to retake Welland, however it is going to be a slug-fest and an interesting 3-way race.
    11 04 04 Can-eh-dian Redhead
    With the exception of Pitz's win during the Tory sweep of 1984, Welland has always been a blue-collar, left-leaning area. The 2008 election was a 3-way race, where only 5% of the vote separated first and third places. This race could be similar, but judging by the lawn signs already up (granted, not entirely scientific), the NDP has a lead on this riding. As well, given the loss of jobs in the last 10 years (Stelco, John Deer, Atlas Steel), jobs will be the key issue.
    11 04 03 bla
    Not my riding, but just saw this article: http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3057358
    It seems that a new Nanos poll shows Tory candidates leading in all four Niagara ridings. To quote about Welland specifically...’In Welland, however, the race is tight. With 32.5% support, the NDP, represented by incumbent candidate Malcolm Allen, trail closely behind the Conservatives and their candidate Leanna Villella with 39.4%. The Liberals, who fielded former MP John Maloney as a candidate, are in third place at 27.3%’
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    An interesting three way race here. The NDP are strong in the heavily unionized industrial centres of Thorold, Welland, and Port Colborne but weak elsewhere. The Tories got over 50% and were 2.5 times that of any opposition party in Wainfleet, but this is only 5% of the riding. They also won the St. Catherines portion and won the rural polls in Thorold, Welland, and Port Colborne. The Liberals are not strong anywhere, but not weak anywhere either and with John Maloney running again there is some name recognition. At this point any of the three parties could win and considering the divide within the riding, I cannot see a large win for any party as I expect the NDP to remain strong in the industrial areas and the Tories to dominate the rural portions while the Liberals will get 25-35% throughout the riding but no real stronghold.
    11 03 31 Denny Soron
    The Tories might have had a chance with a half decent candidate, but it is clear from the number of signs and what I am hearing from my neighbours on the ground that the NDP is here to stay. The NDP is pretty good at holding on to seats and clearly they are doing a good job. The MP has been visible and effective and will almost certainly win over soft Liberals who want to defeat Stephen Harper. I suspect Malcolm Allen will win by at least 5 percent of the vote and I predict the Liberals will sink to below 25 percent.
    11 03 31
    The Conservative candidate is not a hit..And the former Liberal MP is back running again.
    The NDP counted on a 2 way race between themselves and the Tories..it is now a 3 way race with the Liberals set to win
    11 03 28 Canaller
    This is a definitely a two horse race between the NDP incumbent Malcolm Allen and the Tory challenger. However, I would give the advantage to the NDP for the following reasons: 1. Incumbency advantage to the NDP; 2. A weak Tory candidate (at least the Tories found a former municipal politician to run against Kormos in 07... is Leanna DiVella really the best they could come up with?); The Kormos machine helps Allen pack a powerful 1-2 federal-provincial punch; the Liberals are floundering (especially in Welland) and their supporters are far more likely to break to the NDP than to the Tories; former NDP candidate Jody DiBartolomeo is not running as an independent this time, which delivers even more votes to Allen; The Christian Heritage Party is rumoured to be fielding a candidate, which will hurt the Tories.
    11 03 27 observer
    Malcolm Allen and the NDP are certainly off to a good start based on sign coverage. I think it is clear that he has established himself as THE alternative to the Tories in the Welland Riding. Expect voters who mistakenly cast strategic votes for the Liberals last time to back Allen this time around.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    Ah, another risky Liberal comeback attempt. Is it better to go with the guy who held the seat for a decade and presumably has some idea what he's doing and some decent name recognition, or to chance it on somebody new who could be presented as a fresh face. It depends on how hard that old incumbent is willing to work and whether they got used to being incapable of losing for too long.
    10 04 27 Niagara Dude
    NDP MP Malcolm Allen is well-placed to win re-election in the Welland Riding. Here's why:
    1. He's the incumbent. First time NDP incumbents have tended to do much better than the party average in election campaigns. Consider Irene Mathyssen in London-Fanshawe, Chris Charlton in Hamilton Mountain, and Wayne Marston in Hamilton East - all were first elected in 2006 and all substantially increased their share of the popular vote in 2008 despite a decline in the Federal NDP's share of the popular vote in Ontario in 2008.
    2. Strategic voting. Allen is best positioned to benefit from the plethora of strategic voting organizations who will be calling on voters to block the Conservatives. Many of these groups called on voters to cast ballots for the Liberals last time around. Now that Allen is the incumbent and the 2nd place candidate last time around was a Tory, the Welland NDP will likely win the nod of most strategic voting organizations.
    3. More resources. New Democrats tend to concentrate their resources on a small number of ridings where the party is competitive. Now that the NDP holds the Welland seat, you can be assured they will spend the maximum (something they have never done before) to keep it.
    4. Strong NDP base. As long as the NDP stays above 15% and the Tories and Liberals stay below 40% in the polls nationally, the seat should be considered safe for Allen. The NDP holds this seat both federally and provincially. MPP Kormos and MP Allen work very closely together and we can expect that the incredibly popular Kormos will work doubly hard, despite polls, to ensure the NDP keeps the seat federally.
    10 01 29 revsdd
    In the last election I was one of the few people who said the Conservatives had a chance in this riding - and they came very close. This is a very tough one to call now. Malcolm Allen will be tough to beat for the NDP - not because I think he's been a great MP but because he's got Peter Kormos and his machine solidly behind him. John Maloney is trying again for the Liberals. With the Tories down in the polls, Maloney might regain some lost ground, but I had some contact with the local Liberal riding president, who basically told me that they couldn't find anyone better. She meant it as a compliment to Maloney, but I think it demonstrates that the Libs lost a chance to look ahead and rejuvenate themselves. The Tories have a stronger candidate than last time. Far too close to call right now.
    09 10 02 R.O.
    A very interesting race is brewing in the welland riding with 3 strong candidates running for each main party. The ndp has a small advantage here due to the fact Malcolm Allen is the current mp and provincially Peter Kormos wins the same riding by large margins and it wasn't even close last provincial vote. but federally the seat hasn't been as strong for the ndp for whatever reasons and it was a liberal stronghold for a number of years. Former liberal mp John Maloney is trying a comeback here but its going to be very tough to win back his old riding now that it went ndp and conservatives also competitive here. The conservatives also held a nomination meeting here to select a new candidate , well the past one Alf Kiers tried to run again but he lost to Leanna Villella. who i think is a very interesting choice for the conservatives here and were going to have to see how she does here as she might be able to attract some new voters to the cpc that the previous candidate wasn't able to.
    09 09 26 A.S.
    Funny thing last time, I claimed both CPC's Jeff Watson and NDP's Irene Mathyssen as Ontario's most likely third-place incumbents--instead, it was the Grits' John Maloney who landed in third. And when it comes to Malcolm In The Middle's apparent vulnerability vs. surging Tories and/or a Maloney comeback, keep in mind that he's now an *incumbent*...with the Kormos machine behind him. The first time said machine has ever cornered both Queen's Park and Parliament Hill. Maybe Malcolm's no Kormos, and this is still far from a sure bet, but it'd make a good formula for his following the Mathyssen/Charlton/Marston '08 path to non-vulnerability, even against the starriest candidates...
    09 09 20 Canal Girl
    The NDP have put a great deal of time and effort into this riding. Allen has proven himself to be a hard working MPP. He is out there quite visibly getting to know his riding. His proposed E.I. legislation demonstrates his empathy towards working men and women. There will be a hard working team in this upcoming election that will knock themselves out to keep this federal seat that the NDP steadily worked to for years. The Conservatives have a national leader that would have a hard time endearing himself to this economically hard hit riding. Iggy is an unknown.
    09 09 18 Stevo
    Question - why are the Conservatives ?almost certain to lose ground? in Ontario? They only received 39% of the Ontario vote - that's not exactly a difficult level to maintain, and most polls show them doing just that.
    Besides which, Welland is surrounded by Conservative ridings that would, at this juncture, be considered fairly safe for them. If we were to compare Welland to Oshawa (the former is poorer than the latter, but still a fair comparison), this means the Liberals will probably continue to whither here and the main race will be NDP vs. CPC. For now, it's only the large Italian community that keeps Welland competitive for the Liberals. But does anybody really believe that the good professor from Harvard is going to be able to relate to the steel workers in Welland?
    09 09 05 MF
    The Tories came within a razor-thin margin of taking Welland last time, but I think they missed their chance. They are almost certainly going to lose ground in Ontario this time and the Liberals pretty much have nowhere to go but up. The NDP can certainly hold on to this, but I'd say the Liberals are more likely to take it than the Tories are.
    09 08 29 TENN CAN
    Perhaps a case of wishful thinking on my part ... lived here for 10 years while Atlas, Stelco and John Deere were doing well, now things are alot different. I can see where the 'green shift' may not have been a huge seller in this riding ... I wonder if Iggy will be popular here. Wellanders tend to like no nonsense butter and bread issues politicians like Swart and Kormos, not Harvard types necessarily. Allen may be a great MP, but he may be up against the dynamics of a national NDP campaign that has plateaued and a Liberal campaign that will make marginal gains at least. With a conservative base that has increasingly respectful showings, the NDP and Liberals may split the left of center vote in a sqeaker. Over the next decade or so, I bet Welland will join other formerly left-of-center ridings like Oshawa in having an increased conservative vote share. The 1935-1984 and 1988-2008 solid Liberal streak is now over.
    09 08 25 Leo
    This was one of several riding's which was lost by the Liberals due to a large number of their voters staying home. That isn't going to happen this time. The NDP lost votes in 2008 from where they were in 2006, and Allen is not going to be able to hold off former MP John Maloney, who is still popular in the riding. Pickup for the Liberals.
    09 08 24 Observer
    Last time it was extremely close, this again will be much more closer. 3 way race.

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