Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Windsor West

Prediction Changed
2009-08-23 21:33:00

Constituency Profile


Deveau, Melanie

Fox, Alishia

Lumley, Lisa

Masse, Brian

Villamizar, Margaret

Brian Masse

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • windsor-west (222/222 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 15 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Hi CB, good to see you again! The area just south of downtown had a surprising number of Liberal signs relative to the signs for Massey. This may have changed since this weekend (perhaps the NDP campaigners haven't made it there yet). As well, the NDP have recovered somewhat in Ontario. Maybe not as close as Prof Ape predicted earlier but still closer than in '08. Windsor-Tecumseh is a different story. Liberals appear strong in Forest Glade and in Tecumseh south of EC Row. Haven't seen them that much support in a while.
    11 04 12 C B
    My old friends Bear and Ape! I would love to know which part of the city the Liberals are doing well in? In my travels around the city I have counted less than 5 Liberal signs so far. Now, we all know that signs don't vote. However, if we were to consider signs as a barometer of how each candidate is doing, the Liberals will fall even further in this election from last election as all I see so far is NDP and Conservative. Definitely more NDP...I don't see Brian Masse losing, this is still Windsor, but I am arguing the Liberals gaining ANY traction in this city.
    11 04 11 Prof Ape without Dr Bear
    Observation on the ground. If lawn signs are any indication, the Liberals are better organized this time aound and will put a bigger dent into Brian Massey's lead. Couple that with the low NDP numbers in Ontario and I think Brian's win will be uncomfortably close.
    11 04 09 Tony Ducey
    The NDP could implode nationally but yet they would pick up the 2 Windsor Seats. Safe NDP hold.
    11 03 31 C.A.B.
    Quite possibly the safest NDP riding in Southern Ontario. They got an absolute majority here last time, and the Liberals fell below 20%. The Tories actually came in second, with a margin of 30 points behind the NDP, but they're never going to win this seat. Masse won't be going anywhere, except back to Parliament.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    The NDP has won this by double digits in every election since the 2002 by-election and there is little reason to believe this will change this time around.
    11 02 04 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    @A.S.: Was looking at the polling data and mulling over your comment about Layton populism chasing off the eggheads in the U Windsor area. Although the Liberals did fare better near the university elsewhere, I think it's more likely a result of those areas having a disproportionate number of non-Windsor area students living there. I recall my time there and I know that when school is out, much of the area is a ghost town as the students go home (then last week in August/first week in September it's a total zoo with everyone returning). No, I actually think the bump for the liberals stems from out of towners who have little/no affection for the NDP in general and/or Brian Masse specifically. Never the less, even if it went massively Liberal, the NDP will still hold this riding.
    09 12 28 A.S.
    Hard to believe that Alexa McDonough was still federal leader when not just one, but *both* inner-Windsor ridings went NDP--and now, here, too, just as in Windsor-Tecumseh, Herb Grey's party's been reduced to an inglorious third-place status. (Tit-for-tat for the provincial NDP being likewise third-placed vs Sandra Pupatello in '99?) Though in a familiar pattern, Layton populism drove away the eggheads: even if Masse outpolled Liberal + Green by an over-2:1 margin seatwide, within the main U of Windsor poll, the ‘united Green Shift’ got 209 votes to the NDP's 193!
    09 09 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Hard to believe that once upon a time this was Liberal deputy PM Herb Grey's riding. Seems so long ago now. The Liberals do not have a prayer here, nor do the Cons. Sold NDP lock.
    09 08 22 Observer
    One of the best NDP showings in Ontario. This labour unions friendly riding vote anything but NDP.

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