Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Winnipeg North

Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 08:22:00

Constituency Profile


Blaikie, Rebecca

Harvie, John

Komarniski, Frank

Lamoureux, Kevin

Matejicka, Ann

Kevin Lamoureux

Previous Prediction/result

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  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • winnipeg-north-centre (117/162 Polls)
  • winnipeg-north-st-paul (38/161 Polls)
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  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 27
    Layton was in the Peg today at a Rally and this seat will be retaken
    11 04 26 K.J.P
    With the riding, a race between the Liberals and the N.D.P., Kevin has been urging constituents to vote for him and the Liberals as they have a better chance at forming government. Now that polls suggest the Libs and N.D.P. virtually tied or the N.D.P. ahead, will his followers take his advise and vote N.D.P.??? Especially considering Layton's approval rating as compared to Ignatieff.
    Kevin has spent years catering to the Filipinos, and they like that. He invites himself to all the Filipino weddings and christenings in the area, travels to the Philippines frequently and knows who are the centers of influence in the Filipino community. He mobilized that vote during the by-election, and will most likely have the same numbers again. However this time, it won't be a by-election. With a good turnout from the Eastern half of the riding, he's dead in the water.
    11 04 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We were sure this was going to stay Liberal however there is the NDP surge. In the praries the surge is at the expense of the CPC (down 12 points). If the NDP continues to do better and better they will take this riding but if they level off the Liberals will probably hold this riding.
    11 04 25 R.O.
    I think it would be ironic if the riding and likely reason liberals forced election to begin with went back to ndp . the liberals after win in Winnipeg North though the ndp were toast and many ndp seats easily go liberal so they forced early election now its within possiblity Jack and Olivia move into Stornaway after May 2. what a dramatic change of events no one saw it coming and no one knows what to do about it. but Kevin Lamoureux is a successful politician who is well liked in riding and survived horrible elections for Manitoba liberals. so he might still hang on here but its likely leaning ndp as they historically do well in this riding.
    11 04 25 Chriswpg
    After this weekend's surprising surge for the NDP nationally and a bump in the polls in the Prairies. It may not be enough for Kevin Lamoureux to take this riding again based on his own popularity. I live close to Mr.Lameroux's district of Inkster and naturally he will win the area outright.(Based on signs 3 to 1) However, as far as the rest of the riding goes they are stanch NDP supporters. As all areas provincially are held by the NDP.
    The day of the by-election, there was a winter storm that blew in that more than likely kept alot of voters home and there was an assumption among NDP supporters that this would go NDP regardless.(Which turned out to be wrong) I strongly believe Mr.Lameroux will prolly bring up the vote totals to what Dr.Rey Pagtakhan managed in 2004. (Roughly 36-40%) The NDP GOTV Machine will help Rebecca Blaikie make up that deficit that eluded Kevin Chief thanks to the fact that this is a general election.(Where alot of folks are actually paying attention.) In the end I suspect, Rebecca Blaikie flips that margin the Liberals got. NDP 44% Liberals 39%
    11 04 24 binriso
    Will be a close one here but I think the NDP will get the vote out this time and win it by a whisker.
    11 04 24 JFBreton
    Rebecca Blaikie sera une redoutable députée. Il est temps de faire passer cette circonscription de TCTC au NPD. Avec la montée du NPD au Québec et son effet d'entraînement dans le reste du Canada, ajouté au fait que les Libéraux stagnent et sont en voie d'être dépassés par la gauche, il m'apparaît normal de prédire la victoire de Blaikie dans un comté naturellement néo-démocrate à bien des égards.
    11 04 16 Ron F
    The Conservative vote that is remaining here is either religious Social Conservatives or the traditional Anti-Socialist ethnic vote. It is not going anywhere Lamoureaux already has what swing right-wing vote is there. On Election night if South, centre and East parts of the Riding turn out more than in the Byelection then NDP if North and West turn out higher and general turnout similar to last vote then Liberals. I do not expect turnot to be low.
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    Another factor to watch here is the Conservative vote. The Conservative vote was way down in the Novemeber by-election, and that may have helped the Liberals. The Conservatives have a different candidate now than the one in the by-election, and the question is, where will the Conservative vote go, and who will it help, the Liberals or the NDP?
    11 04 15 Chriswpg
    Way too close to call at this point. The pros and cons of the Liberal and NDP campaign's sorta cancel each other out. This will all depend once again (like in the by-elections) who gets the vote out. While I would like to give the Liberals rhe edge on that point. Never underestimate the power of the NDP in the area.
    11 04 14 Flatland Man
    I think parties need to be very careful with as Layton ironically put to Ignatieff a parties ‘sense of entitlement’, especially in a riding that swings. I think it was as that sense of entitlement that certainly contributed to the NDP's loss last time. The key to the NDP retaking this seat is to motivate the voters to come out again and vote back for the NDP as the Liberals did not soak up 20% of the vote from just the CPC and the Greens. Historically the NDP are the weakest turnout on election day. Last time the ran a strong local candidate against a LPC candidate who had a long history in the region and more importantly was able to tap into the ethnic vote in this extremely diverse region where that message resonated. What Lamoureux is doing is what Blaikie should be doing and that is telling voters that it is a close race thus motivating the voters to continue to come out and voter Liberal to win. What Blaikie is doing is saying that the NDP deserves to have this seat back based on history. Blaikie needs to motivate voters to get out on May 2nd, because if she doesn't it will be a Lamoureux win again if only 40-45% turn up. Running on merit and name brand alone will not do it for her, she needs to project another close nailbiter race. As they say to win a swing riding you need to always campaign like you’re five votes down.
    11 04 13 Ron F
    I think all the Liberal cheerleading is not accurate prediction. the National Polls (flawed as Nanos is) has very little to do with Winnipeg North. Even the underestimating of Rebecca has not much to do with the Analyses. But when it is said with a straight face that we can not know the general historical nature of this riding that needs a response based on clear social science not partisanship, Anytime any other party other than CCf party or NDP it was with a low voter turnout and it lasted until the next election. The Inkster provincial portion of this riding contains liberal strength in Inkster park area. Lamaroux won with not a strong turnout with a strong cultural group and strong small business. The area from Selkirk ave. to Redwood had low turn out. It went for the NDP and will with greater turnout. The Kildonan and Inkster Park areas are probably now a plurality liberal but not by much. The traditional socialist vote is very strong in the North end of the old city limits and even in Kildonan. The organized labour vote is big in this riding. The older Jewish vote here is not like the Jewish vote in the south end but was always fairly socialist. The Ukrainian vote is strongly New Democratic or even further left. These demographics may occasionally sit on there hands but not if North Winnipeg is going to the establishment parties. Jeff thinks that this riding is changing and turning liberal. Did someone wave a magic wand? the only Liberals or conservatives for that matter ever win here is with a concentrated small business and professional vote while the labour vote sits it out. With Blaikie this is not going to happen and by the way it is not the size of the signs it is now may are up and I I suggest you take a drive down Burrows and Redwood and Salterjans St. Johns streets. I will therefore repeat the prediction the Liberal Lamaroux can only win if 30% or less show up has a chance between 30 to 40 and none after that. The NDP have burned after losing this riding and I guarantee the turnout will not be low.
    11 04 11 Social Democrat
    joey joe joe mentions a drop in NDP support nationwide. Only one poll has the NDP down low and that's a nightly tracking poll with a HUGE margin of error in different parts of the country. Their claim to fame is that they're accurate... but they were only on the money in 2006. Some polls like Angus Reid have the NDP at 21%... Ipsos had them at 19%... both above 2008 results. The Liberals polled at 2008 levels in both of those polls.
    The NDP will reclaim this riding due to it being a natural fit for the NDP during a federal election. There is a strong history of candidates winning by-elections and then losing the general election not long afterward. Winnipeg North will become part of that history.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    NDP support down nation wide and Liberals just won the bielection with popular former MLA. NDP candidate Blaikie is Bill Blaikie's daughter but resume wise is just a political staffer who hasn't lived in the city for a while.
    11 04 06 Guy Concordia
    It is hard to know what the natural political leanings of a riding are when they have had a popular MP for a long time. While past results are heavily NDP, part of the reason is that Judy Wasylycia-Leis was very popular. The riding is probably naturally NDP, but Kevin Lamoureux won this because he is personally very popular despite the fact that Kevin Chief was also an excellent candidate and the fact that the Liberals normally do poorly in by-elections. He should be able to hold this in a general election.
    11 04 04 Flatland Man
    Kevin Chief is not running because he declared as the candidate in the provincial election this October 4th. He will be running in the Point Douglas area (I believe) where he will be an automatic to get into the Legislative building off Broadway. For Chief he was rewarded for a strong campaign with a four year term in office and $80,0000+ a year salary. I don't think he was viewed negatively by the NDP at all.
    11 04 05 Rena Arlinsky
    The ndp have not done a good job with this campaign. Becky Blaikies campaign signs are small compared to Kevin's. This is going Liberal again, no questions. Residents, myself included want to give Kevin more time before throwing him under the bus, he has not had a chance to prove himself.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    Strangely, if the NDP had ran Kevin Chief again they may have actually taken this one. It was pretty darn close last time. But by running Blaikie, it sends a perceived admission that Chief wasn't a top candidate, that the NDP took the voters for granted in the by-election, and that the NDP thinks they can win by running nepotistic campaign. That's not a slight to either Chief or Blaikie, they're both strong candidates, but just the perception. With the by-election and current election choices they've made, the NDP has guaranteed this one for the Liberals, for quite a long time, and this may be the start of a right-ward shift for Winnipeg North.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    This is an NDP stronghold, however Kevin Lamoureux has enough popularity he can win on his own name considering he won provincially it was also an NDP stronghold. It should be another close race and still too early to tell who has the edge at this point.
    11 04 02 RonF
    Lamoreaux won this riding with a low turnout. The Liberals will keep this turnout but not likely the seat. Why? This shocker loss for the NDP will spur a lot of Volunteers. Blaikie is a community and Political organizer who knows the Winnipeg North area particularly between Selkirk ave. and south of West Kildonan. Turn out is the key Because of the historic limits and nature of Liberal support here. The higher the turnout the more likely an NDP victory. Blaikie will win a turn out over 40%. Lamaroux will win in a turnout under 30%. This will go back to where it usually is. An NDP victory with a new competent MP.
    11 04 01 irongoat
    Here is another way to approach this particular riding. This is a riding that has voted strongly NDP in the last 4 general elections. Mr. Lamoureux won it in the recent byelection, but if you look at the voter turnout, it was very low. He got between about 7300 votes, and the NDP candidate, who normally would get in the range of 15,000 votes in a general election, only got about 6500. In other words, a whole lot of traditional NDP voters just didn't come out for a byelection and the Lib candidate surprised everyone with a win. It is a fair bet the NDP camp won't be as complacent this time. Although the local candidate usually doesn't make a huge difference in terms of votes, it seems to me Ms. Blaikie is not a liability to the NDP campaign. So if the national parties are roughly at the same level of support as in 2008, and turnout returns to traditional general election levels, I see no reason why historical voting patterns wouldn't return as well. It should be a comfortable NDP win.
    11 03 30 Flatland Man
    Ah yes WAC that makes perfect sense to me, apologies if I came across a little harsh.
    And to the poster below, although Blaikie is a recognized name I'm still not sure that this is a polished enough politician to take down Lamoureux. It should be an interesting race right to the last ballot box but at this stage I am not sure the young Blaikie has what it takes. Whether she is the next Nikki Ashton or not remains to be seen.
    11 03 29 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    ‘Blaikie’ still means something in Winnipeg, and a by-election victory on personality of the local candidate tends to not translate into a national campaign. I am not ruling out a Liberal win, but at this time I feel an NDP victory is much more likely.
    11 03 29 WAC
    You are correct Flatland Man that this riding as currently constituted has a long Liberal as well as NDP history. And I wasn't shocked when Lamoureux won, he has a long history with the area. I was simply referring to the fact that the North end of Winnipeg (which includes Winnipeg Centre) is especially revered amongst the Dippers having been J.S. Woodsworth and Stanley Knowles old seat, both icons of the party.
    11 03 28 Flatland Man
    Ignatieff will be stopping in Winnipeg North this Wednesday thus it is obvious that the Liberals have made this another target riding (or a hold in this case). Rebecca Blaikie just lacks the political clout and the appealing image (she appears young and green at this point) to really sway public opinion in her favour over Kevin Lamoureux.
    Also @ WAC this has always been a Liberal/NDP nominal riding, generally held by the incumbent. The riding has equal parts NDP AND Liberal roots, the Lamoureux by-election victory was only a surprise to those who were not familiar with the history of the riding and the history of the candidates.
    11 03 28 Jim
    Blaikie has zero connections to Winnipeg North and they will not kick Kevin out just a few months after he won. This will be another Liberal victory.
    11 03 27 Marco Ricci
    I think the main question here is who will do a better job of getting their vote out - the Liberals or the NDP? And whose supporters will show up? It seems some NDP voters stayed home in the by-election. They could come back. In terms of name recognition, Kevin Lamoureux is probably better known. People know the name Blaikie because of the father with that name, but they don't know Rebecca very well. Lamoreux also has more political experience running here. We will also need to see the numbers in Manitoba during the campaign. Right now the NDP is behind the Liberals in Winnipeg in the latest Probe poll, with the Conservatives first. Cons: 41%, Libs 33%, NDP 21%.
    11 03 27 WAC
    An iconic seat and an iconic name for the NDP should be interested to see how it pans out.
    11 03 26 Flatland Man
    Nobody wanted an election less than Kevin Lamoureux but he is back on the campaign trail again. He will be running again against an NDP newcomer however Blaikie will have much of her fathers network on her side. Should be another nailbiter again but predicting a Liberal hold here as it stands right now, traditionally this has traded back and forth between the Liberals and the NDP but it is more likely that the moderates will trend towards the Liberals to keep Winnipeg North red.
    11 02 14 Marco Ricci
    Firstly, I think we should congratulate Taylor Bourke Verrall for his correct prediction below on the by-election race. Whoever you are, you deserve a prize for being the only one to correctly predict the by-election win!
    Moving on, it has been announced in the Winnipeg Free Press today that Rebecca Blaikie is set to run for the NDP in this riding, and that she has the support of Kevin Chief, who will not be running again:
    Blaikie of course is the daughter of former federal Manitoba MP Bill Blaikie (who is now a provincial MLA). At this point though I'm not sure if Rebecca Blaikie has the connections or name recognition to the riding that Kevin Lamoreux has, and so for the moment I will put this riding in the leaning Liberal category. My prediction could change during the next election if circumstances change.
    11 01 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Okay, it seems that most of us really did not see (or believe) that was coming. Who would have thought that the Liberals would take Judy W-L riding from the NDP? It remains to be seen if they can keep it. A lot of resources were poured into this byelection from other ridings and it won't be there during a general election. Never the less this does mean that the Liberals are competitive in Winnipeg again and watch for vulnerable MPs, particularly Shelly Glover, Rod Bruinooge and to a lesser extent Joy Smith, increasing their visibility and whipping up the rhetoric. We think Winnipeg may become a spot to watch in the next election.
    10 12 10 EP
    Lamoureux is a great constituency politician, not a question, but he was not known for running good campaigns during his two decades as MLA. He won most of his provincial campaign (riding being about a quarter of a federal riding) due to his popularity and without much of a fight.
    The Liberal team in Winnipeg North, leftover from the Pegtekhan days, could not have won the byelection on their own. The whole Winnipeg Liberal establishment, especially the Liberals from Winnipeg South Centre and Winnipeg South, was out in force during the byelection. Lamoureux was also stage managed by professional political operatives from Ontario throughout the byelection campaign. It remains to be seen whether Lamoureux can repeat the upset in a general election without all the external resources available to him during the byelection.
    10 12 10 binriso
    Pretty big upset, though the Liberals obviously had the stronger candidate which was the deciding factor in two of the byelections, lets see what happens when voter turnout isnt 30%. I?d still guess a close NDP win.

    By-election Prediction
    November 29, 2010
    Winnipeg North

    10 11 26 MF
    I just don't see Winnipeg North being ‘Outremont in reverse.’  The NDP has been polling in its normal range and there hasn't exactly been an outburst of ‘Iggy-mania’ nation-wide.  The NDP would probably have to be polling in single digits to lose this stronghold.
    10 11 25 expat
    I'm surprised to see that the site hasn't put the by-election in the NDP prediction column yet with only 4 days left to go. 
    While both the Liberals and the Conservatives have put up stronger than normal candidates, the riding's NDP roots are deep, Chief has run a solid campaign, and there doesn't appear to be anything happening on the ground to change the likely outcome. If anything, the fact that both Lamoureaux and Javier are credible high profile candidates running active campaigns makes it harder to imagine the anti-NDP vote coalescing around a single candidate.
    The NDP isn't likely to get the 63% that they got last election - not with a new candidate for an open seat -  but the idea that their vote might drop enough in a race with 3 major candidates to allow someone else to sneak through seems to be nothing more than wishful spin on the part of Liberal and Conservative party press flaks. The numbers just aren't there to make it happen.
    10 11 25 Mark R
    I see no substantive regional polling numbers or shifts that would support the assumptions that the Liberals have any chance at all of winning this seat.  The NDP seems to have nominated a good candidate who happens to be a life-long resident of the area.  Rey Pagtakhan won this seat for the Liberals only when the NDP were at record low support in the regional polls.  The Globe and Mail polling analysis suggests the NDP would have about 65% support in this riding.  Solid HOLD for the NDP.  The others simply do not have a chance.
    10 11 21
    @Taylor Bourke Verrall
    It is a fallacy to believe Lamoureux will win this riding just because according to you, ‘Ignatieff packed the house.’ That doesn't mean a lot, considering across that the Liberals are becoming ever increasingly weak in the West and Ignatieff's lower-than-Dion approval ratings. This riding has demonstrated strong NDP support in the last several elections, and I think it will stay that will. The Conservatives and Liberals will battle for second place.
    10 11 20 R.O.
    The race here is more competitive than previous years but i'd still be surprised if the ndp actually loses the seat . the reality is the math makes it difficult for the ndp to lose the riding, even if they drop 10% thats still 50 % of the vote . as for the liberals they could double vote from 08 and still be at only 20% , although with kevin Lamoureux as candidate i'm sure they will do much better than 08 but that could still be much less than ndp vote in riding. the conservatives are somewhat of a factor in the riding but in a gritty inner city riding expectations remain low for them here. but Julie Javier is still running a serious campaign and made the news when Ignatieff came to town and questioned her reasons for running . Crime does seem to be the major issue in the riding but hasn't helped them out as much as you'd think as its normally suburban voters not downtown ones who are find appeal in a tough on crime agenda. ndp candidate Kevin Chief should hold this one unless something drastic happens here in the final weeks and days of by-election is the only way i could see it going somewhere else or unless there voter turnout is extremely low but thats doubtful. also wouldn't be surprised to see main candidates run again here as liberal mla has given up his seat and old job so its likely he be running here again in a general election rematch no matter what happens.
    10 11 10 binriso
    the Liberals may have a strong 2nd place finish here but it should be safely in the NDP column. The Conservatives will likely be focused on trying to get Vaughan and really dont have much of a chance here anyways.
    10 11 09 Taylor Bourke Verrall
    I don't know if the New Democrats were paying attention last week when the LPC flexed their political muscles. And flexed they did. They managed to pack house with Ignatieff. Expect them to pack the voting booths with a sea of red. Lamaroux will take it with a margin of 5%
    10 11 03 MF
    North Winnipeg is just about the biggest NDP stronghold in the country. First Nations activist Kevin Chief should get at least 50% of the vote.
    10 10 30 David Young
    Kevin Chief was nominated to replace Judy W.L. almost 5 months ago, and has been actively knocking on doors since then.
    The Liberals may regain second place in this riding, but won't come close to winning here any time soon.
    Easy N.D.P. hold!
    10 10 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    With Judy gone or not, this riding has NDP painted all over it. Not affluent enough to vote Conservative and the Liberals are not strong enough in Manitoba to put up a decent fight. The NDP candidate has good credentials and we'll probably see an easy victory (smaller than what Judy used to get though...probably in the ballpark of what Pat Martin gets next door).
    10 05 27 Mark R
    With the sudden resignation of Judy Wasylycia-Leis - it will be interesting to see how much of her win was ‘personal’ vs NDP voters. I'm not sure how this will play out.
    10 05 23 R.O.
    The seat is now vacant as longtime ndp mp Judy Wasylycia-Leis has stepped down for a mayoral run in Winnipeg . my gut feeling is that the seat will stay ndp anyways but i'll hold off on an official prediction till more is clear here or if we know if there be a by-election or not. the liberals are also likely to make a run here as they have a well known potential candidate in provinvial mla Kevin Lamoureux. the conservatives currently don't have a candidate either and have low expectations for this riding as it has never really been a conservative riding. the ndp's previous margins of victory in the riding make it a tough challenge for the other parties even with the longtime mp out of the race is sort of my feel of the race here.
    10 05 22 A.S.
    Judy W-L's opting for the Winnipeg mayoralty instead--but the seat's too impoverished-Tory-kryptonite for a post-Blaikie Elmwood-Transcona-type close call; it's actually more conducive to the Liberals, but that'd take some kind of Pawley '88/McLaughlin '93 NDP pits plus (not ‘or’; ‘plus’) an Iggymania-spurred Kevin Lamoureux candidacy to work. We're talking about a bombproof federal NDP seat, even if parts of it look post-apocalyptic...
    10 04 28 David Y.
    Judy W.L. will be resigning as M.P. as of May 1st.
    Even with provincial Liberal Kevin Lamoureaux resigning to run here federally, the N.D.P. will hold this seat without any problems.
    Then again, we could see the same scenario like Westmount-Ville Marie and the other ridings that had by-elections called in 2008, and then Harper called a federal election. The residents here may not have a new M.P. until well into next year.
    10 04 27 ridingbyriding
    Wasylycia-Leis is stepping down on May 1. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20100427/wasylycia_leis_100427/20100427?hub=QPeriod
    This riding has been near, at, or over 50%+1 for the NDP for a very long time. Judy or not, the NDP will hold on here; that counts for the coming by-election and/or the coming federal election.
    09 09 25 chriswpg
    This riding has a long history of electing NDP MP's. I expect Judy to take this seat once again in a landslide.
    09 08 26 Observer
    Judy is a high profile MP in the NDP caucus. She will easily be reelected.
    09 08 26 DL
    This is just about the safest NDP seat in Canada. Judy W-L will win for sure, the only question is does she get 70% or 80% of the vote.

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