Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Newton-North Delta

Prediction Changed
2009-08-28 16:57:00

Constituency Profile


Dhaliwal, Sukh

Fallon, Mani

Gill, Ravi S.

Hammond, Samuel Frank

Sims, Jinny

Walker, Liz

Sukh Dhaliwal

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • delta-south-richmond (93/235 Polls)
  • surrey-central (71/241 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 30 political pundent
    the latest EKOs poll shows the NDP in 2nd place in BC way ahead of the liberals and the latest forum poll shows the NDP in first in BC (2nd place nationally) 472 just in BC NDP 39% Cons 37% liberals 15% Greens 8% if the those numbers hold up and the and if what Newton resident says about NDP candidate Jinny Sims is true than I expect the NDP who garnished just 26% of the votes in 2008 to gain more than just 2 seats 1 from each liberals and cons this time and given Jinny's name recognition and the Jack factor I would not be surprised if the NDP gain this seat
    11 05 01 JR
    I can't believe this hasnt been called for the NDP yet. This will be a landslide for Sims. She has an army of teachers to bring home her vote on Monday. Also the Libs are toast in BC; they have pretty much given up.
    11 04 30 MF
    With the NDP on the upswing, they're going to be picking up seats in BC. I expect Newton-North Delta to be one of them - the NDP has a strong candidate in Jiny Sims, and provincially it is strong NDP territory.
    11 04 30 John
    This local candidate has attended all the all candidate meetings. She presents herself great. It looks like Mani Fallon is the candidate for Newton North Delta. The local polls have her in front in a tight race.
    11 04 30 keefr
    Several weeks ago, I predicted Dhaliwal would hold this. I still wouldn't be surprised if he does. He's certainly winning the lawn sign battle (the ones that are actually ON lawns, not at the roadside).
    But the NDP surge cannot be ignored. They are almost to take Surrey North, the neighbouring riding. At this stage, there will likely be some coalescing around the party with momentum. This riding is TCTC.
    11 04 29 Newton REsident
    NDP candidate is winning hands down, As incumbent Sukh Dhaliwal is a non performer, has language problem, Jinny has successfully turned the tide in her favour.27 % sikh voters whom Sukh was counting on has been clearly devided. Notably Jinny's campaign is run by south asian voters, predominantly sikhs. All volunteers , no paid staff. Young voters are favouring her, she is making inroads into Strawberry hill, West newton and scott road areas, these were once Sukh's forts. Manny is a rookie; but she'll get her share of east indian voters and decided tory votes. Currenly its a direct fight between Jinny and Manny, Sukh is a distant third.
    11 04 30 J89
    NDP pickup. The Liberals in BC are struggling, despite Sukh's popularity it will be difficult to hold this seat through the ‘Orange Wave’. The NDP candidate Jinny Sims is the former president of the BCTF (teacher's union) and was extremely high profile during the teacher's strike in 2005.
    11 04 25 Patrick M.
    I worked on the NDP campaigns in this riding in 04 and 06. In both elections, the vote was close. Yes, Sukh has an extremely impressive political machine, and I am far from calling this for the NDP, but I do believe that it is not one to consider a safe Liberal seat anymore. Jinny is running a strong campaign, which is far better organized than the 08 Townsley campaign. With the NDP up in the polls and the Liberals still clinging to the lowest they have ever polled, I cannot see this riding being safe for Sukh anymore.
    11 04 25 Probable Switch
    An NDP upset is looking more likely all the time. Dhaliwal has been a dud in Ottawa. Rarely attends, never speaks: a born back-bencher. The last two elections he only won narrowly. This time he faces a MUCH stronger challenger in Jinny Sims, who is a very tough campaigner, and has to be considered a star candidate, even by her opponents. The Conservative person is not a factor here.
    11 04 25 Austin Gatensbury
    Dosanjh's revelations about Sikh extremists will probably help the Liberal here, and took the Conservative out of contention. The NDP might run a close second.
    11 04 25 Local
    NDP is up, Liberals are down - this one is going to be competitive and the NDP could pick it up. See 06 results here for an idea about how this one will look.
    11 04 23 MHB
    Jinny Sims is a big name in BC and the pride of the community. Expect an upset here. Especially with the rise in NDP support in BC.
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    If nothing else, the current poll numbers in BC have the Liberals up from '08, the CPC down and the NDP unchanged. If the Liberals can pull off a 2000+ vote win in '08 they should keep it in '11.
    11 04 14 keefr
    Incumbency will help Dhaliwal retain the riding. I live here and do notice a stronger NDP ‘presence’ here and elsewhere in Surrey.
    I wouldn't actually count the NDP out here, but at the moment nothing I've seen around here makes me think Dhaliwal will lose.
    11 04 14 NewtonVoter
    I live in the riding, and here are some observations:
    - Sukh Dhaliwal signs are everywhere
    - No one has ever heard of this Mani woman, and she hasn't shown up at any events so far
    - Jinny is out and about, but is only back in Delta for family reasons, not because she lives here (she lost to Mabel Elmore for the NDP nomination in Vancouver Kensington 2 years ago)
    In spite of the Liberal party's lack of seats in the province, this is the one riding I think that they can comfortably put in the win column.
    Ujjal on the other hand? No comment.
    11 04 11 Jay
    There is no real reason for Sukh to be in this seat other than the east asian vote.
    The Conservative candidate seems to be nice and inoffensive.
    Jinny Sims is a highly divisive former leader of the BC teachers union.
    Hard core union, socialists will be voting for Jinny.
    I can see Mani Fallon coming up the middle. Ignatieff is no reason to vote for Sukh. Ignatieff is not liked generally in BC, Liberals are certainly not the default choice of BC and this is not a natural (as much as they could be) seat in BC.
    It comes down to how the east asian vote goes.
    GOTV wins.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    Somewhat of a three way race and thus any of the three main parties could win although in terms of order of likelihood, I would go Liberal, Tory, then NDP. The Liberals are strong in the Surrey section amongst the South Asian vote while the Tories more in the southern sections which are less densely populated and more affluent. The NDP more on the north end of the riding. The Tories have aggressively targeted the South Asian community, but at the same time the South Asian community votes heavily NDP provincially, although not federally, so if either can make strong gains amongst this group they could pick this up.
    11 03 26 SLN
    I would not count the CPC out just yet. Young new Candidate. She probably has a lot to bring to the table. The NDP will take some of Sukh's votes again this time and could be a close result.
    11 03 21 MJ
    It's getting interesting with Jinny Sims nominated as NDP candidate. She has no experience as an elected politican and is parachuted here. The incumbent Sukh Dhaliwal in the last election badly lost in Delta but won with the support of only the Indo-Canadian in Newton.
    09 11 27 R.O.
    One thing i find interesting about the numbers here as that during elections where liberal support has gone down by considerable amounts across the country Sukh Dhaliwal has managed to grow his support in this riding somehow. but his margins of victory 1000 votes in 06 and 2500 in 08 are still too small for me to give him a free pass here when considering weak liberal numbers overall in BC and the reality this is sort of a swing riding area as they say. the future race here remains largely unknown as the ndp and conservatives do not to my knowledge have candidates yet or any names come forward and with no election may not have any rate away.
    09 10 07
    This is a strange riding. It could very well be one of the last seats to fall from the liberals in western canada. The incumbent is very popular in the indo community; as long as he holds that vote bloc he cannot fall below 28%. look for a similar result to the last election here with a potential drop in the NDP vote.
    09 09 05 Observer
    I disagree the contest here is between the Liberals and Conservatives. The NDP in past elections has been close to winning the riding. The Conservatives are in the polls much below they were last year and the Liberals have yet to make a comeback in BC. TCTC for the moment.
    09 08 27
    Suhk is a very good friend of iggy, as evidence by his visit here as deputy leader in the last election. he should receive alot of help next time as well.
    09 08 27 JJ
    Another one of those common BC 3-way races. If the Conservatives, after the strong support they had in the province could not win this seat, chances are looking grim for future elections. The CPC actually lost votes here in 2008, whereas the Liberals seemed to gain votes from NDP supporters. I'm putting this in the Liberal column for now.

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