Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Vancouver South

Prediction Changed
2011-04-19 10:40:00

Constituency Profile


Boylan, Charles

Dosanjh, Ujjal

Hakizimana, Jean de Dieu

Wong, Meena

Young, Wai

Hon. Ujjal Dosanjh

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • vancouver-kingsway (20/190 Polls)
  • vancouver-quadra (48/232 Polls)
  • vancouver-south-burnaby (114/203 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 AR
    With all the bad press both Wai and Ujjal have been getting, I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP win this riding. I'm not saying it will happen, but it might considering the NDP surge.
    11 05 01 S.G.
    With the latest polls showing the Liberals in freefall in BC, I am expecting the Tories to win this seat, despite the problem their candidate has had in her campaign.
    11 04 27
    @MarcoRicci: When politicians dig deep into their rivals personal lives, it turns people off and usually backfires. Wai Young broke her silence to the Chinese media yesterday, with her mom tearily explaining that Young was only one of her seven children to stay loyal to her after the conflict over the dad's will. This in fact, reflects poorly on Young's opponents for bringing this up and oddly makes Young look good for her filial piety.
    Also, Malik recently endorsed 2 Liberal candidates. Mayor Gregor Robertson, MLA Mable Elmore, and City Councillor Raymond Louie (a friend of Dosanjh) were also found to have visited Khalsa school before and met with Malik. This demonstrates a double standard and mistreatment of Wai Young. Looks like the tide may be turning against Dosanjh.
    11 04 26 Marco Ricci
    A 2nd controversy is now circling around Wai Young. Members of her own family are suing her over an inheritance estate issue and 9 family members say they won't vote for her. Will this hurt her on election day?
    Young was also absent from the all-candidate's debate yesterday. That may hurt her opportunity to connect with new voters.
    11 04 25 Austin Gatensbury
    This seat is no longer TCTC. The spectacle of Young fleeing reporters has ended her chances. Dosanjh is being thanked by people of all political stripes for revealing the dangerously close ties between Harper Conservatives and religious extremists.
    11 04 25 Marco Ricci
    Wai Young is continuing to face controversy over the Air India-Sing Malik scandal:
    Will this issue hurt her enough to cost her the Vancouver South seat? We'll have to wait and see as it is too soon to know, but the issue is getting more and more coverage, and the articles say she is refusing to answer reporters' questions.
    11 04 23 From the Left Coast
    NDP is usually stronger with the Indo-Canadian community than the Chinese community. A (non scientific) reader response poll done by SingTao Chinese daily gives the Tory 46%, Lib 44%, and NDP 9% overall support by Chinese readership of all Canada, so the NDP's Wong will have minimal impact on Wai Young, but may draw out Lib vote.
    Its kind of surprising what an election campaign will do, I thought the Lib vote will bounce back from their historic low the last time, now they can't barely beat the NDP in 2nd place.
    11 04 24 Marco Ricci
    Ipsos-Reid is a pro-Conservative polling firm that always publishes inflated Conservative numbers, so one must read such a poll with caution. However, it is probably too soon to predict a Liberal win here. There is a final week of polling remaining, and we won't really know how the winds are blowing until the end of this week. Liberal support could recover, but it may not.
    In the meantime, the main controversy in this riding involves whether Wai Young knew that Singh Malik had connections to the Air India bombing - the story has been in the news all weekend:
    11 04 23 burlivespipe
    I'm interested in seeing what kind of 'bump' Young gets from being backed by a suspected terrorist. I guess the question will have to be asked after the election -- with all the terrorists and terrorist supporters backing or down-right running for the CONs, just who are the giant prisons for?
    11 04 23 B
    I live in this riding. I think Wai Young will win this riding easily this time around. With the NDP surging in BC, the left will split the vote further, propelling Young to an easy victory.
    11 04 21
    Could go Liberal or Conservative but I have to give it to the Liberals. Dosanjh has been gearing up well in advanced and has a good political machine in place. The NDP candidate Meena Wong will certainly draw votes away from Dosanjh but will also split the ethnic Chinese vote.
    11 04 21 Ghosts of Elections Past
    Support for the Liberals in B.C. is cratering, down to 12% according to the April 21 Ipsos poll, while Conservative support is at 46%.
    While poll results are fluid random samples of a snapshot in time, I just do not see how Ujjal Dosanjh can hold this very marginal constituency.
    On a national note, I also find it interesting that election prediction project has not projected a single seat change in all of Canada.
    Conservative support trending higher than 2008, a wave of NDP support and a floundering Liberal campaign, the continued erosion of Bloc Support, this has to translate into some seat changes, but reading this site you would think that most of the incumbents are care free and cruising to victory.
    11 04 19
    The former Premier and current Liberal MP will hold his seat by a wider margin due to more money being spent and the Liberal tied with the Tories in BC
    11 04 18
    @Michael: I suspect the NDP are running making a decent run in this riding, not because they think they can win, but rather to boost NDP presence in the Chinese media help and to prime Meena Wong to run elsewhere in the future (perhaps municipally or provincially). Most NDP candidates in Vancouver are white, so she’s definitely an asset to the NDP in terms of targeting ethnic voters in the area. However, neither Jack Layton nor any prominent NDP star has come to help Wong, so it’s not a target seat. Dosanjh and Young have by far the better organized campaign teams as they are both experienced in running.
    On the contrary, Wai Young is also running much stronger campaign this time. She’s appeared in the media various times (featured in both mainstream and ethnic media). Never mind Paul Martin visiting this riding; PM Harper visited this riding as well, including multiple visits from Jason Kenney. Young has the most momentum going forward. Personally, I feel she will helped by Meena Wong’s decent campaign.
    11 04 18 Michael Watkins
    Ujjal Dosanjh recently said he is in the fight of his life in Vancouver South and from what I can see on the ground that was not hyperbole. He faces two challengers - Wai Young representing the Conservatives riding on what was an unexpectedly close result during the 2008 election, requiring judicial recounts to resolve; and from a very well organized NDP campaign represented by a strong multi-lingual mainstream candidate, Meena Wong.
    Traditionally this riding has flipped between conservatives and Liberals and the traditional analysis would suggest a strong NDP candidate would help split the centre, centre-left vote and allow the CPC candidate to walk up the middle. That said, an interesting dynamic seems to be playing out here -- residents I've talked to seem much more open to making a favorite choice, rather than a strategic vote or traditional choice, than I can remember seeing before, and I've seen some evidence that the NDPs candidate is taking away both Conservative and Liberal votes.
    Last election's surprisingly close result in my opinion had less to do with the candidate -- then newcomer Wai Young, who in 2008 was almost completely shielded from the media and from constituent appearances -- than the anti-Dion backlash.
    Can Young ride to victory on that past result? In my opinion, no. As usual the Conservatives are running something of a peekaboo campaign, while the Liberals and NDP are running hard... and aside from a recent visit by former P.M. Paul Martin, the ground game seems to be pursued hardest at the moment by the NDP campaign team.
    This one truly becomes too close to call when you factor in the 2008 result but for now I give the nod to Dosanjh until there is more info on the apparently strong NDP response -- which is not traditional.
    11 04 17 canuck4liberty
    I agree with the postings that have said the demographics have changed in the last three years to more of an Asian community. Wai Young is more involved in the community. And I don't get what the big deal is with the photo shopped photo. Harper and Young were both in that photo but the Chinese President was taken out.
    11 04 16 JC
    Whatever chances Wai Young had have gone down the toilet, she was caught photoshopping herself in a photo with Stephen Harper for a promotional calendar.
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Was wondering why we had not heard from Johnny No-Name and then we realized our last submission somehow never got posted. No matter, on to the now. Current polls have the Liberals up 7% in BC compared to the '08 election and CPC down by the same amount. There's also grumbling in the South Asian community, who are hoping to get their families to Canada but would have that delayed or blocked by the Conservative proposal. Also there's no way Dosonjh is taking anything for granted. He will probably eke out a victory.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    Ujjal had a huge scare last time, but I think one of the major issues was the number of traditional grit supporters who sat on their hands, due to leadership and the feeling that it wasn't in doubt. Now they know better. I've seen both campaign offices busy, but on the streets of Main and Fraser what i see is more red than blue. The margin won't be comfortable, but it won't be as bad as last time. If a judicial recount is needed anywhere, it will be in North Van, not here.
    11 04 07 rebel
    I'm willing to give good odds that Wai Young will win for the Cosnervatives. The riding is 50% Chinese...she moved that community towards the Conservatives in 2008 and I think the trend will continue.
    11 04 05
    I doubt turnout played a major factor here in Dosanjh's near loss. Turnout from 2006 to 2008 only decreased by around 1,800 votes. There was a 5,000 vote shift towards the Conservatives in 2008. Also, Chinese are known to have weaker turnout than other ethnicities like the South Asians. Now that they know this riding is winnable, I suspect many Chinese voters will come out to put Wai Young over the top. I am not saying that all Chinese-Canadian voters will support Young, but there has been an important shift in recent years with those of Asian origin becoming increasingly ‘Conservative’ in vote choice. Also, Dosanjh has been a lacklustre MP. He has a poor voting record and has said various careless things. Many Indo-Canadian and Sikh community leaders have endorsed Wai Young. I suspect many people in this riding want a change.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    When one considers how close this was last time around, definitely a battleground. The Tories made strong inroads amongst the Chinese community who make up 47% of the riding, but the East Indian community largely stuck with the Liberals and they make up 15% of the riding. If the Tories can continue to pick up votes amongst the ethnic communities they should win this, although it might be harder than they think. I suspect most in the Dosanjh campaign underestimated the threat whereas this time they are much better prepared and will probably run a stronger campaign as last time around few expected the Tories to win here, but now everyone knows they stand a chance.
    11 04 02 Seth
    Ujjal will win. He is a good MP. People who stayed at home last time, thinking he had it in the bag, will be out in full force this time. Even people who voted NDP and Green last time will support him this time.
    11 03 31 Marco Ricci
    As this Globe and Mail article discusses, all the parties here are campaigning hard to capture the diverse cultural vote.
    Jason Kenny visited the riding this week, as did Michael Ignatieff today, so that seems to indicate that the Liberals are taking this riding seriously this year. As others have pointed out, Ujah Dosanjh was probably asleep at the switch in 2008. He assumed that because he won by large margins in previous elections that he would be safe in 2008. While that was probably a normal assumption to make at the time, it almost cost him the seat. This time Dosanjh obviously knows that he can't take the vote for granted, and he said this in a t.v interview recently. If Dosanjh works harder this time at getting out the vote, it may be enough to keep the seat. On the other hand, the question is whether the Conservatives have made more inroads since 2008. If they have, harder work by Dosanjh might not be enough. We will need to look at the BC polls during the month of April to see how it develops.
    11 03 29 WAC
    In the exchange between Bear & Ape and Johnny No Name - I tend to agree with B&A that in B.C. in general a surge for the NDP will likely hurt both the Conservative and the Liberals as it quite common in B.C. for votes to flip between the CPC and the NDP, probably more so than anywhere else in the country. I digress as current polling data is relatively close to the result in B.C. the last time. However this riding will be of interest not only because it was the second closest in the country after Kitchener-Waterloo, but because of the so called ‘very ethnic’ voter strategy of the Conservative Party of Canada. The CPC has made it no secret that they are actively courting the Chinese vote and this riding has the 3rd highest percentage of Chinese population in the country at 43.7%. If this strategy is successful, the CPC should take this riding. However, I wonder if Dosanjh and his team didn't take the local fight very seriously last election. This is pure speculation, but given the fact that he won in 2004 and in 2006 by comfortable 8,000 - 9,000 vote margins. Maybe he didn't see it coming and was busy assisting other candidates in B.C. or the national campaign. I'm sure he's well aware of the closeness of the race now and will probably work harder to retain the riding. Purely speculative on my part. TCTC, should be an interesting race with a lot of potential factors which have already been mentioned by other posters at play.
    10 01 19
    @ Dr Bear and Prof Ape:
    Then your point is moot. This is Vancouver South, not BC Interior and not Vancouver Island. In VS, the race is between the Liberals and Conservatives. A hypothetical NDP surge in the province would harm the Liberals in this riding. If you want to talk about science, recent polls have indicated over 40% support for the Conservatives in BC, including one with them at 49%. I would put this in the CPC column.
    11 01 07 Dr Bear and Prof Ape
    @ Johnny No-Name:
    Our earlier posting was truncated (as yours appears to have been as well); you may have noticed as it ends mid-sentence. What was cut off was a statement conceding that the CPC have made major strides within the ethnic community and we concluded that this may be Dosanjih's Achilles heel. You ascertain that voters shifting to the NDP automatically come from the Liberals (do to ideological proximity). This is not necessarily correct; look at many ridings on Vancouver Island, the BC interior and even in suburban GVA where there are polar shifts between the CPC and NDP while the Liberals are not a factor. Granted in Vancouver proper this is largely muted but the point being BC voters do shift their vote drastically between the extremes. Lastly, you criticized our reliance on polling numbers. We are scientists (Dr Bear a biochemist, Prof Ape a physicist) and we rely on empirical evidence to formulate a hypothesis. There is very little empirical evidence in election predictioneering besides the
    10 12 27 A.S.
    I wouldn't make too much of the Conservatives outpolling the NDP within the City of Vancouver--as long as the demographics of Vancouvers Quadra and South hold, it's a ‘natural order’, much like the NPA's traditional (if not current) at-large municipal dominance. Though speaking of Quadra, I'm wondering how much Ujjal's '08 recount shocker was the backhanded byproduct of the federal Grits over-investing in ‘saving Quadra’ following Joyce Murray's own byelection squeaker--in which case, presumably, they're going to re-invest *here* now. (But keep in mind that if one applied a Toronto mayoral hypothesis to Vancouver demos, Smitherman might well do worse relative to Ford in VS than in VQ.)
    10 12 02
    @Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    And just how exactly does the NDP surging in Vancouver equate to an Ujjal Dosanjh win? If this were true, the Liberals stand the most to lose from an NDP surge in Vancouver (due to perceived ideological proximity), which would benefit the Conservatives in this riding. Furthermore, your assessment treats polls as if they are the gospel of politics. They?re not, as they go up and down. There are various other factors such as issue saliency (economy and crime) and candidate appeal in this riding that could contribute to a Conservative win.
    In addition, you are severely underestimating Conservative strength in the GVA. The Conservatives are strong in the suburbs (like Richmond, Surrey, and perhaps Burnaby). Even in the five core Vancouver ridings alone, the Conservatives won MORE votes in 2008 than the NDP! Furthermore, empirically, the fact that ethnic voters are now as likely to vote Conservative as the Liberals (Gidengil et al. 2008 in ?The Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat?) demonstrates
    10 11 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    @ Johnny No-Name:
    You are correct that Dosanjh did vote for the HST and that may be the ‘something to honk people off’ we spoke of. But voters who are honked off at the HST are not going to run the Conservatives as they too are responsible for it (some would argue more so). No, voters will look for other alternatives than the Liberals or Conservatives and the NDP are clearly reaping the rewards of this in BC. They are polling stronger than they had been in recent months (our previous post was when they actually were polling above the CPC in BC) and you have to keep in mind that they will poll strongly in the GVA and Vancouver Island. Keep a watch as to who the NDP target in BC; do they try to equate the HST with the CPC or with both the CPC and the Liberals. The CPC will poll much more strongly in the interior of BC and we all have to keep in mind that is where the bulk of their support is going (so poll numbers for the CPC are skewed downward in the GVA). Also we disagree with voters blindly thinking that
    10 11 10
    @Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    What HST backlash against the CPC are you referring to? Because if I am not mistaken, Mr. Dosanjh himself rose in the House and voted *FOR* the HST. Also, many BC voters believe that the BCLiberals are officially affiliated with the federal Liberals. I have seen recent polls where the Conservatives are leading healthily in BC while the Liberals are in the mid-teens. Let's not forget that a couple days before the 2008 election, the Conservatives were around the 30's in BC, but won 44% of the vote on election day.
    The Conservatives are doing a good job at ethnic outreach, especially to groups likes the Chinese. Ignatieff has been unable to appeal to immigrant voters the way his Liberal predecessors or Harper has been able to. The Tories also perceived as ?competent? on major issues like crime and the economy, which are particularly important in Vancouver South.
    10 10 30 binriso
    I haven’t seen a single poll giving the conservatives the same 25 point lead over the Liberals, and most of them show their vote dropping 5-10 percent, which spells a bit of trouble, mostly on Vancouver Island and in the city of Vancouver where a couple seats are in play for other parties. I wouldn’t expect them to gain any next time either unless things change.
    10 09 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    There is an apparent HST backlash against the CPC and their numbers have tanked in BC according to a recent poll. If that holds would expect this to stay Liberal unless Dosanjh really does something to honk people off.
    10 05 03
    binriso, how do you know the Conservatives won't be 25+ points ahead of the Liberals again? First, Michael Ignatieff's approval ratings are at ‘Dion’-level, hovering in the mid-teens. Also, a recent Angus Reid poll shows that Conservative have 51% support in BC, compared to 30% for the NDP and 14% for the Liberals. While this number may not hold on election day, it demonstrates the potential of support the Conservatives have in BC and it shows just how much stronger the Conservatives are in BC when compared to the Liberals.
    Furthermore, there are local factors that play into this riding that your analysis does not take into account. While Ujjal Dosanjh has appeared often in the media, he is not particularly well-liked and seen as opportunistic. On the other hand, I believe one reason why Wai Young came so close in 2008 is because she grew up in the riding, was seen as a more ‘grassrootsy’ local candidate, and had a lot of sociological, policy-making, and community leadership experience that appealed to some voters in this riding. She has received decent coverage in the Chinese media. Also, her party's ‘strong’ stance on crime appeals to voters in this riding due to an outbreak of crime and gangs in this riding.
    10 03 09 binriso
    Thing is that last time the CPC were more than +25 over the Liberals province wide (almost +20 over the NDP).
    This will not happen again and in this case the Liberals will keep the seat.
    09 09 12
    As a Vancouverite, my prediction is based on what I know locally. This will be a close race, and there are some important factors that contribute to my prediction.
    1) Wai Young has roots in the riding, where she attended high school and has lived here most of her life. She knows the area well locally and is very grassroots. The key issues of voters in Vancouver South are crime (gang violence!) and the economy. Unfortunately for Dosanjh, the Conservatives are strong on both issues. The fact that the Liberal-dominated senate is stalling the House of Commons? crime bills won?t sit well with voters here either. Young, on the other hand, has experience with crime prevention and immigration programs and policy, which is a good fit for this riding.
    2) Ex-Premier Ujjal Dosanjh has strong name recognition but he?s not actually particularly popular or well-liked. I think there is a hunger for change of representative in this riding. Many see him as opportunistic, sly, and resourceful. His furious rant blaming the voters (especially those who voted NDP) on election night 2008 came off as disrespectful and turned off a lot of people.
    3) Expect Wai Young to run a very sharp and focused campaign boosted by support from her party. Unlike what MJL said, this was not a target seat for the Conservatives. From my knowledge, they put no party funding here in 2008. Next election, Wai Young is going to get resources from party central, Harper will likely visit this riding next election, and the Conservatives will target this riding with full force. Of course Dosanjh?s giant campaign team will mount a strong campaign to defend the seat. However? in 2008, Young ran a campaign with a small team and humble funds but she still came 21 votes from winning the riding. It was truly a David vs. Goliath type battle. With abundant resources in this riding in the next election, Wai Young will be much more experienced and will run a top-notch campaign.
    4) The Conservatives have closed the gap with the Liberals among the minority and immigrant vote. Wai Young won a significant chunk of the minority vote in 2008. She appeals not only to the Chinese, but other immigrant communities as well due to her experience with immigration programs and policy and S.U.C.C.E.S.S. With the Conservatives in power for 4 years, ethnic voters are much more comfortable and inclined to vote Conservative. The Conservatives will continue to gain ground in this demographic due to ideological similarities. Furthermore, Wai Young is getting important exposure in the Chinese community such as the Chinese media (like Fairchild TV).
    5) Foreign policy towards China is important in this riding because of the large Chinese population. Since the last election, the Conservatives have warmed up the ties by sending high profile cabinet ministers like Jim Flaherty and Stockwell Day to China to work out the relationship between the two countries and important issues like trade. Harper will follow suit this fall. This will make it much more comfortable for Chinese voters to vote Conservative.
    6) This riding has significant centre-right elements. The Oakridge, Marpole, and Kensington communities have centre-right bases as shown in the provincial election.
    Therefore, I predict that Wai Young will win. Whether by 3 votes or by 3000, that remains to be determined.
    09 09 10 MJL
    Interesting analysis of Vancouver-wide trends, but I am afraid the story the author is telling doesn't hold water. The swing against the Liberals was roughly similar to their province-wide drop - Dion was not liked in British Columbia. Michael Ignatieff polls much better in Vancouver.
    Secondly, it is not clear to me that Tory support spiked in ?urban core? ridings. In Ontario they gained the most in suburban 905 ridings.
    The party made large gains in only two ridings, where considerable resources were placed. Vancouver South became competitive because the Tories made a run for it. They will try again in 2008, but they are not as competitive as they were back then. Harper is an incumbent with a recession and Ignatieff is not Dion. Liberal hold.
    09 09 02 JJ
    I thought these statistics might interests many of you, and directly relates to Vancouver South. Using Excel, I broke-down the vote percentages each party received in the last three elections in the five core, urban Vancouver ridings.
    2004 -- A battle between Liberals and NDP
    LPC: 40% (96,698 votes)
    NDP: 32% (74,804 votes)
    CPC: 20% (46,403 votes)
    GRN: 5% (12,049 votes)
    OTH: 2% (3,611 votes)
    2006 -- Liberals surge in Vancouver
    LPC: 43% (104,258 votes)
    NDP: 32% (74,297 votes)
    CPC: 22% (54,694 votes)
    GRN: 5% (11,597 votes)
    OTH: 1% (2,300 votes)
    2008 -- Liberal and NDP support melt, Conservatives and Green surge ahead
    LPC: 33% (81,210 votes)
    CPC: 29% (69,718 votes)
    NDP: 27% (62,351 votes)
    GRN: 10% (25,036 votes)
    OTH: 1% (2,322 votes)
    This is clear proof that the Conservatives have become competitive in core urban ridings like Vancouver South. In 2008, as you can see, Conservative support surged ahead of the NDP, which is quite surprising consider the Conservatives won 0 of the 5 Vancouver seats, whereas the NDP picked up 2. This makes Vancouver South and the other Vancouver ridings (except NDP-strong Vancouver East) very competitive races.
    09 09 02 pollwerker
    Dosanj squeeked by last time with the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 25 points in BC. That margin has been cut to 8 points. The Liberals have more money to advertise than they did in '08. Also the Conservative advantage in targetting ridings is reduced as they will be playing defense in much of the country. Also tricks to move money to target specific ridings are no longer going to be tolerated.
    09 08 31 MF
    I think the Tories just missed their chance of taking Vancouver South. The Liberals were at a mere 19% in BC last time and the Tories were at a very high 44% and have almost certainly maxed out. I expect Ujjal to be re-elected.
    09 08 30 wyatt
    This is one the Tories will steal away. After running a first time candidate here in '08 and losing by only 20 votes, they'll be sure to devote the right resources here. This was a PC seat between '72 and '93, so it is definitely a riding that has a strong Tory foundation on which the CPC can build.
    09 08 29 B.O.
    Certainly a 20 vote margin makes this riding too close to call. But to suggest a simple visit by Harper would swing this riding to the Conservatives makes the assumption that the Liberals would do as poorly in the next election as they did in the last. Current polls do not show this. Obviously polls can change. But to me it doesn't seem likely the Liberals will do as poorly next time as they did last time. Last time the Liberals lost many, many votes in B.C. and dropped to below 20% of the B.C. vote. That would likely have to happen again for this seat to go Tory. I know that federal polls in B.C. always seem to change from what they were pre-election to what the actual results are on election day but many current B.C. polls show the Liberals having improved their vote share from the 2008 election in B.C. and the Conservatives having dropped several percentage points from the 2008 election in B.C. It is possible this riding could go Conservative but it would take quite a poor Liberal showing for it to have any strong likelihood of occurring. Of course all these calculations could change if Dosanjh doesn't run again. Then it could be quite a bit easier than before for the Tories to pick the seat up. But if he does run again he retains incumbent advantage as 20 votes was still enough to retain status as the incumbent MP. But before we can have any clear idea how this riding will go in the next election, we'll need to have a clearer idea how the next election will shape up nationally.
    09 08 27
    Most in the federal conservatives were shocked at how close this riding was last time. now that they know its available look for harper to make an early visit here to lock it up ala his richmond visit last election. wai young also has cabinet potential, something alice wong does not posses.
    09 08 26 Observer
    It is true that the majority of this riding are chinese voters but why do you think they will vote for the Conservatives? This inner Vancouver constituency like other big metropolitan cities just don't vote conservatives. Do you know any Conservative MP in the core of Vancouver, Toronto or Montreal? Minorities in this cities are progressive, they don't like right-wing politics.
    09 08 26 JJ
    Observer, Vancouver South is approximately 45% Chinese and 10% South Asian. The overwhelming minority group in this riding is the Chinese -- this is the main community any candidate needs to reach out to in order to win. The Conservatives did in fact run a South Asian candidate (Tarlok Sablok) in the 2006 election, but he lost to Dosanjh by ~9000 vote margin. In 2008, the Conservatives were looking specifically for a Chinese woman (Wai Young) to run in this riding -- and I'm sure her demographic intersectionality contributed to the extremely close race, among various other factors.
    Furthermore, South Asian support for the Conservatives is also quite strong, so one should not assume that South Asians only vote Liberals. It was the vital South Asian support that helped many CPC candidates claim victory in 2008. There are also quite a few Conservative MPs of South Asian origin (e.g. Nina Grewal).
    09 08 24 Observer
    South Asians have big numbers in Vancouver South. And they vote mainly for the Liberal party. If Conservatives choose a well-known south asian candidate they could win.
    09 08 23
    This riding is, without a doubt, too close to call. Despite over confident predictions from pundits who predicted this riding would be a Liberal landslide last election, it turned out that this riding was not a slam dunk. I had predicted that the race would be a lot closer than previously predicted, and it turned out to be true. That supposed ‘landslide’ turned out to be just 20 votes when just two years ago, Liberal Dosanjh's margin of victory was 9000 votes!
    This close shave reflects the emergence of the Conservatives (and NDP in other ridings) as serious challengers to the Liberals' former vice-grip on the ethnic vote. Consider the fact that Conservative Wai Young's campaign basically had no financial support from the party and a relatively weak organization in the riding compared to Dosanjh's leviathan of campaign helpers and riding organization. Still, the fact that the Conservatives came 0.00048% away from claiming this Liberal stronghold is quite a feat. It definitely shows the inroads the Conservatives have made in the ethnic community.
    So who will come out the victor next election? For one thing, Dosanjh seems to be a lot more active than he previously was (in my opinion), which could ensure another victory for him. On the other hand, Wai Young has also been building support in the community for the next election. It could go either way. One thing is for sure: this will be an interesting race to watch.

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