Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:25:00

Constituency Profile


Audain, Tunya

Chapman, Carol Lee

Hartt, Doug

Holt, Allan

Lagassé, Roger

Platt, Terry

Veniez, Dan

Wauters, Brennan

Weston, John Dunbar

John Weston

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • north-vancouver (25/241 Polls)
  • west-vancouver-sunshine-coast (220/231 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 24 Reg
    How any body could believe that Weston will bleed more than 13,000 votes is beyond me. Libs ran a distant second in '08 and are bleeding votes across the country
    11 04 24 odude22
    Let us take a closer look at this one and start beginning:
    Election 2008: CPC 45%, LIB 27%, NDP 14%, GRN 14%
    1.Blair Wilson, MP ran for the Greens, Liberals who voted Green, and Liberals that deflected to the Conservatives will be back to the Liberals.
    CPC -2, LIB +10, NDP +-, GRN -8
    2.NDP and Conservative Support in BC has gone up, while Green and Liberal Support has dropped.
    CPC +2, LIB -4, NDP +3, GRN -1
    3.The Liberal Candidate this time is not as well known, and the incumbent is reasonably well known in the area.
    CPC +1, LIB -1, NDP +-, GRN +-
    4.High profile Liberals such as Scott Brison, Michael Ignatieff, and Justin Trudeau have visited the riding.
    CPC -2, LIB +3, NDP -1, GRN +-
    5.The NDP candidate has lived in the Riding for 18 years, and is well known as a Volunteer.
    CPC +-, LIB -1, NDP +1, GRN +-
    Projected Results: CPC 44%, LIB 34%, NDP 17%, GRN 5%
    As much as it pains me, being a hardcore Left-winger, the Conservatives will win this riding. The Liberals will gain ground, but not enough to win this seat.
    11 04 23 From the Left Coast
    Umm, I think with the last week in sight, I don't think the Libs can pull at 10,000 vote upset to beat the Weston. If anything, LIB will bleed vote to NDP with all the news coverage about NDP.
    11 04 10 burlivespipe
    This will be a nailbiter I believe, but the higher ratio of higher-educated people in this riding plus the fact that Veniez has been campaigning like a pitbull for the past six months will make up for lost ground. The old money element of this riding is slowly disappearing, with many newer immigrants forming a large part of the West Vancouver portion. Add the possibility of the NdP bleeding support where a possible CON can be defeated, and you can see a good possible Liberal pickup.
    11 04 10 Taylor Verrall
    The math favours the Liberal Party in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky. For a second lets ignore the logic of the ‘blair factor’ and the fact that incumbents advantage truly has not given any advantage to Weston and lets look at a model based purely on polling swing. A poll released 3 days ago (the most recent, by Ekos I believe) showed this: CPC35 GRN15 LPC26 NDP20 Now, last election the CPC were at 44.57 in this riding, LPC at 26.57 and the Greens and NDP at 14.43 a piece. Factoring in pure provincial swing (change from last election) the riding would look something like this
    CPC 35.07 LPC 33.27 GRN 20.93 NDP 8.33
    Now, obviously these numbers are off quite a bit, last election there was a star Green Candidate and this election its a no name who doesn't even have personalized signs. It can be inferred that any positive green swing on the provincial or national stage will not transfer to this riding, especially considering they no longer have the $100000 they had last election. But if we go one step beyond that we find the average amount of difference between provincial trends in 2006, the difference in trend was LPC +9.9 CPC -2.33 NDP -8.44 GRN +1 the difference in trend in 2004 was LPC +3.91 CPC -3.01 NDP -4.92 GRN +3.42 the average of these is
    LPC +6.905 CPC -2.67 NDP -6.68 GRN +2.21
    this applied to our altered for trend model we get this
    Weston 32.4
    Veniez 40.175
    Platt 1.65
    Wauters 23.14
    Now Obviously this projection is off, no matter how bad the NDP Campaign is, they will never get 1.65 and no matter how good Brennan Wauters campaign is he will never get 23.14. So I have instead taken an average from the two NDP results and altered vote totals equally from the Greens and Liberals to equal the picture
    Weston 32.4
    Veniez 32.2775
    Wauters 15.2425
    Platt 17.245
    Now, bizarrly enough if we add this all up we wind up 2.835% short of 100. Given statistical logic I will toss these votes into the Liberal column,
    and so we come to our final projection
    Dan Veniez - Liberal - 35.1125
    John Weston - Conservative - 32.4
    Terry Platt - NDP - 17.245
    Brennan Wauters - Green - 15.2425
    I still feel as though the Green vote is too high given that they basically have no campaign nor presence, I'd say watch for up to half of the Green vote go to Veniez or Platt. This is honestly the best projection I can give, it would be near impossible to figure out the effect of Weston, Ignatieff, Veniez, Harper or Wilson on this riding.
    11 04 04 Hobay Grit
    Everybody on this comment board seems to be focused on West Vancouver, granted, the Conservatives will almost certainly win plurality in West Vancouver but people seem to forget that the riding also inculdes many, many outlying regions, regions which would likely swing the riding. They don't have to ride on the Conservative over spending or Contempt of Parliament, all they have to do is capitalize on the New Democrats and Greens lack of energy and the election is theirs
    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    The Liberals only won this in 2006 since Blair Wilson spent pretty much all of the two years after losing in 2004 on trying to win this. As well as West Vancouver is fiscally conservative but socially liberal so some who normally vote for centre-right parties voted Liberal since they feared the Tories had a hard right hidden agenda. Since then, most of this group has come back. In the rest of the riding, the NDP and Liberals have their pockets but nothing enough to win this while the Tories will get at least 25% in every community and above 33% in almost all of them combined with the probably 50%+ in West Vancouver means they take this, albeit probably only with a plurality.
    08 11 08 Taylor Verrall
    If an election were held today I could see the logic in giving this race to Weston. But I haven't a clue why this has been tossed into the Conservative column so soon. Weston has failed to capture the imaginations of West Vancouverites and the rural/small town parts of the riding won't vote for him in the first place. Wilson made the election unbalanced and unpredictable in 2008. However the Liberals seem to be in a place to capture the left-centre vote. There are rumors of a paper New Democrat and a nominated Green Candidate who is too young. Veniez still has some training to do however make no mistake of it, if an election were called, he'd be able to flip people's opinions in 5 weeks. Electoral logic aside, John Weston has had a history of being a big spender in parliament and a guy whos alot of fluff and little content. Milton Chan miscalled this race in 2006 and I'd give a safe bet that if this prediction stands, be prepared for this to be a ‘missed projection’
    09 11 27 R.O.
    John Weston clearly has the advantage here even though the riding has some left of centre support near whistler and squamish areas. the reality is the left of centre vote in this riding is extremely divided among not just 2 but 3 parties in this riding. and none of the parties by themself has enough support to win the riding at this point in time. i also think the failed if not disaster that was the Blair Wilson experiment hurts them here as after that there is likely to be alot less interest from some in the riding to have another opposition mp. the riding also features alot of the winter olympic venues and has seen alot of funding making it more likely to stick with the government i somehow suspect. the riding is being targeted by the liberals as Ignatieff has visited but i just don't see how there new candidate Daniel Veniez is a better one than there last one Ian Sutherland who was a mayor for a town in this area.
    09 10 06 Gone Fishing
    Blair Wilson as incumbent floor crossing MP garnered the greens roughly 4000 more votes in the 2008 election when the greens were supposedly a juggernaut about to take seats in an election. If you take Wilson's 4000 votes and add them to the liberal tally you still have to make up 6000 votes and that's a stretch given current polling.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Nearly 11,000 votes is too much of a lead to over come in this former Reform/Alliance riding.
    09 08 26 JJ
    Usually a Conservative seat, but still potentially vulnerable. John Weston is a decent MP and won by a healthy 10,000 vote margin of victory. However, some Liberal votes were split with ex-Liberal Green candidate Blair Wilson, which contributed to the large margin of victory for Weston. A Liberal surge in the province plus a strong candidate could equate to a Liberal victory here. Still, for now, it is leaning Conservative.

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