Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Eastbourne


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:23:10
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
British National Party
Colin Poulter
Labour Party
Dave Brinson
Independent
Keith Gell
Independent
Michael Baldry
Conservative Party
Nigel Waterson
UK Independence Party
Roger Needham
Liberal Democrats
Stephen Lloyd
Independent
Stephen Shing

Incumbent:
Mr Nigel Waterson
Eastbourne (97.9 %)
Norman Baker
Lewes (1.2 %)

Electorate:
Current
66.948999999999998
2005
73889

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
5256
20628
19879
Other
2188

 


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10 05 03 Rob Slater
90.219.54.115
As a former Councillor, I joined the Liberal Democrat candidate canvassing in the Meads Ward of Eastbourne, which has 3 Conservative District Councillors and 1 Conservative County Councillor. Meads is considered the Conservative heartland of Eastbourne and usually produces huge majorities in favour of the Conservatives. The canvassing left even the most experienced canvasser (20 years plus) dumfounded with dozens of requests for Lib Dem window posters and a large number of voters indicating that they are switching from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats. This supports other canvass data from across the constituency which suggests a notable swing to the Lib Dems from the incumbent MP.
10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
LD gain. This is number 7 on their list of national target seats.
The LD's will benefit hugely from Clegg's game-changing performance in the TV debate. This is one of many seats where they will see that benefit.
10 04 19 EP
99.162.224.34
Other than the byelection in 1990, this seat returned Tory MPs consistently for the last century. However, it has always been a marginal seat against the LibDems. With Waterson various embarrassing incidents, and the resurgent LibDem numbers, this may just be a seat to fall.



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