Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

New Forest East


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:07:29
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Green Party
Beverley Golden
Conservative Party
Julian Lewis
UK Independence Party
Peter Day
Labour Party
Peter Sopowski
Liberal Democrats
Terry Scriven

Incumbent:
Dr Julian Lewis
New Forest East (100 %)
Mr Desmond Swayne
New Forest West (3.9 %)

Electorate:
Current
69646
2005
71345

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
5748
23319
15623
Other
2346

 


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10 04 23 Predictor
204.9.162.70
Not that it would affect the outcome in this riding, but Julian Lewis' comment of HIV risk of gay sex = risk of front-line soldiers. I don't know whether he pisses off the gays or the soldiers more. Can't be helpful to the Tories nationally though.
10 04 05 Safe Bets
204.9.162.70
Even when they were losing badly overall, the Tories managed to rack up healthy margin in the area. With their numbers ticking up, this would be one of the earliest seats to be declared blue.



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