Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Totnes


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:25:05
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Labour Party
Carole Whitty
UK Independence Party
Jeffrey Beer
Liberal Democrats
Julian Brazil
Green Party
Lydia Somerville
British National Party
Michael Turner
Conservative Party
Sarah Wollaston
Independent
Simon Drew
Independent
Stephen Hopwood

Incumbent:
Mr Anthony Steen
Totnes (84.4 %)
Mr Adrian Sanders
Torbay (5.6 %)

Electorate:
Current
64939
2005
67366

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
5091
19434
17817
Other
2990

 


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10 04 24
70.29.18.217
This one has been called way too early.
With Clegg's game-changing performance in the TV debate, the Lib Dems are up 12% nationally on their 2005 showing, and the Tories are barely improving (2005: Lab 41, Con 32, LD 18; 2010: Con 33, LD 30, Lab 27).
There has been no sign of an LD slide. Assuming these numbers do hold, it is difficult to see the Tories taking this one, or any LD seats in the South West.
09 09 25 EP
204.9.162.70
Given the massive swing from LD to Con in the recent Devon local election, this seat can be safely placed in the Conservative column.



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