Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Taunton Deane


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:14:18
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Liberal Democrats
Jeremy Browne
Conservative Party
Mark Formosa
Labour Party
Martin Jevon
UK Independence Party
Tony McIntyre

Incumbent:
Mr Jeremy Browne
Taunton (95.3 %)

Electorate:
Current
77535
2005
81464

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
6708
24513
24526
Other
994

 


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10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
Easy LD gain / hold.
With Clegg's game-changing performance in the TV debate, the Lib Dems are up 12% nationally on their 2005 showing, and the Tories are barely improving (2005: Lab 41, Con 32, LD 18; 2010: Con 33, LD 30, Lab 27).
There has been no sign of an LD slide. Assuming these numbers do hold, it is difficult to see the Tories taking this one, or any LD seats in the South West.
10 04 14 EP
204.9.162.70
Boundary changes will help the Lib Dems. This becomes a more urban seat as more rural parts are Transferred into Bridgwater & West Somerset. But it will be close nonetheless. Jeremy Browne challenging the expense ruling certainly doesn't make him popular.



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