Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Leicester South


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:16:22
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
British National Party
Adrian Waudby
UK Independence Party
Christopher Lucas
Green Party
Dave Dixey
Liberal Democrats
Parmjit Gill
Labour Party
Peter Soulsby
Conservative Party
Ross Grant

Incumbent:
Sir Peter Soulsby
Leicester South (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
73400
2005
72388

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
16705
7558
12976
Other
5212

 


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10 04 30 Former Resident
209.250.145.174
Muslim vote is splitting 32% Clegg, 17% Brown and 6% Cameron for best Prime Minister.
Leicester South is the #12 constituency in the UK for Muslim population - about 8,000 people living there. Should be enough to dispel any doubt that the LDs will take this one.
10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
An easy pick-up for the Lib Dems, with their surging fortunes following the TV debates.
Lib dem target #28, won by them in a by-election in 2004, although lost in the 2005 general election. However, national numbers are radically different now.
However, Labour candidate has no expense scandal baggage, and bookies make a Labour a slight favourite!
Ladbrokes: Lab 4/7, LD 5/4
I can't believe Labour will hold onto this, regardless of the quality of their candidate. LD gain.
10 04 24 Former Resident
64.231.161.131
The Lib Dems are polling up 12% on 2005, and Labour are down 14%.
This seat is in the top 30 Lib Dem targets, and needs a swing that is less than half the current swing estimated by the polls. This is going LD.



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