Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Ludlow


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:13:45
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Alan Powell
Labour Party
Anthony Hunt
British National Party
Christina Evans
UK Independence Party
Christopher Gill
Liberal Democrats
Heather Kidd
Green Party
Jacqui Morrish
Conservative Party
Philip Dunne

Incumbent:
Mr Philip Dunne
Ludlow (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
63052
2005
64571

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
4972
20980
18950
Other
1634

 


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10 04 26 ridingbyriding
173.32.33.116
Feels a bit weird to be projecting Liberal Democrat gains in the Midlands. Traditionally, this has been the least Liberal area of the whole Country. The math, however, is behind them in this seat.
10 03 23 Chris
80.47.213.164
I think the news that the former Conservative MP will be standing here for UKIP in opposition to the current MP, makes a LibDem gain most likely.
09 09 21 Efrem
84.69.74.153
It cuts me up to write this, but Dunne will be re-elected. No, it's worse than that. His majority might well soar. This is traditional Tory territory (mostly, anyway - Broseley is a Labour town and the Liberal vote in the west of the seat predates Green) and Dunne has a high profile locally (and is fawned over by the local press). It must also be remembered that Green only won in the first place because the Tories ran a God-awful candidate who wasn't from Shropshire (a fact that LibDem leaflets made great play of) and who came off as generally arrogant and obnoxious (he has, btw, now dusted himself off and is involved in local politics in Ludlow - ousting a LibDem county councillor in June by all of two votes). And Green was a decent candidate and a decent constituency MP - which is why he came so close to holding on last time round. The LibDem candidate this election is the former leader of (the now former) South Shropshire District Council. And she wasn't very popular, to say the least.



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