Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Dudley South


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:34:48
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Conservative Party
Chris Kelly
Liberal Democrats
Jonathan Bramall
UK Independence Party
Phil Rowe
Labour Party
Rachel Harris

Incumbent:
Ian Pearson
Dudley South (91.7 %)

Electorate:
Current
60844
2005
59833

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
15845
12387
4789
Other
3007

 


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10 05 03 Adrian Bailey
82.36.129.101
Lack of incumbent, strong Tory campaigning in marginals, larger regional swing to Tories in the West Midlands, all point to a Tory win here. Majority 3,000+
10 04 20 EP
99.162.224.34
The fact that Pearson stood down suggests that Labour is in a tough spot here. While it would be strange to have a Tory representing this seat with large black population, I think Chris Kelly will be riding the national trend to parliament.



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