Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Wirral South


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:16:22
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Labour Party
Alison McGovern
UK Independence Party
David Scott
Liberal Democrats
Jamie Saddler
Conservative Party
Jeff Clarke

Incumbent:
Ben Chapman
Wirral South (95.3 %)

Electorate:
Current
57801
2005
56181

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
16062
12505
8320
Other
1008

 


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10 04 09 EP
204.9.162.70
A key marginal seat. Ben Chapman is a good campaigner, having established a high profile going back to the by-election ten years ago, and will likely hold the seat. While the LibDems are quite strong here in local government, their percentage were already high last time for a Lab-Con marginal. That performance is unlikely to repeat, leaving Chapman in a good position to defend the seat.



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