Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Edinburgh North and Leith


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:09:09
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Scottish National Party
Calum Cashley
Independent
Cameron MacIntyre
Socialist Labour Party
David Jacobsen
Conservative Party
Iain McGill
Liberal Party
John Hein
Scottish Green Party
Kate Joester
Liberal Democrats
Kevin Lang
Labour Party
Mark Lazarowicz
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Willie Black

Incumbent:
Mark Lazarowicz
Edinburgh North & Leith (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
74762
2005
68038

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
14597
7969
12444
4344
Other
3286

 


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10 05 05 Former resident
209.250.145.174
Guardian reporting today that the LDs are favourites to win this one.
Guardian May 5th, 2010
The Scottish Labour party is getting jittery about losing more seats than expected tomorrow, with the Lib Dems, Tories and nationalists now closing in on at least five key seats across central Scotland.
Party sources and senior figures, including Jim Murphy, the Scottish secretary, admit the race is far tighter than expected in seats once regarded as safe, even though Scotland-wide Labour's poll ratings are holding firm.
Anxieties are mounting that the Lib Dems will grab their first Glasgow seat for nearly a century, in Glasgow North, unseating the low-profile junior Scotland minister, Ann McKechin, who is defending a 3,338-vote majority.
The seat was on Nick Clegg's vote-rallying cross-country tour yesterday evening, and senior Labour figures have let it be known they estimate the Lib Dems have a 1,000-vote lead over Labour. Clegg's visit ‘energised’ party activists.
Apparently the last Glaswegian Liberal MP – excluded Roy Jenkins's victory for the SDP in Glasgow Hillhead in 1982 – was Tony Benn's grandfather, Daniel Turner Holmes, in 1911 in Glasgow Govan.
Murphy is fighting a reinvigorated Tory campaign in his nominally safe seat of East Renfrewshire, the constituency visited by David Cameron on the Tory leader's ‘through the night’ campaign tour of UK target seats.
Murphy is defending a 6,657-vote majority and was previously very confident he would retain it, but he told the BBC today that the contest there was ‘too close to call’. This raises the unpalatable prospect for Labour of both its Scottish ministers being unseated.
Elsewhere, the Lib Dems are clear favourites to win Edinburgh North & Leith from Labour's Mark Lazarowicz, a former council leader, and Edinburgh South, which was held by the former trade minister Nigel Griffiths until his retirement from politics earlier this year.
The latest two polls in Scotland, both by YouGov for the Scotsman and PoliticsHome, put Labour a clear first at 37%, with the SNP second on 21% or 25%, the Lib Dems third on 22% in both polls, and the Tories now trailing last on either 14% or 17% depending on the poll.
Labour is still confident it will win back two seats lost at byelections since 2005: Dunfermline and West Fife, taken by the Lib Dems in 2006, and Glasgow East, won by the SNP in 2008.
Its fears that Aberdeen South could fall to the Lib Dems have apparently subsided, while the highly marginal Ochil and South Perthshire and Stirling remain Labour seats to watch.
These figures suggest the SNP can win the prize seat of Dundee West from Labour's Jim McGovern, completing the nationalists' control of this prize city and cementing the notion of an east coast nationalist arc from Tayside through to Moray.
10 05 05 EP
204.9.162.70
the final Scotsman/YouGov poll shows Labour holding on to their strength and only losing may be a seat or two in Scotland. The two thousand votes margin is probably enough for them to hold on to this seat.
10 04 30 Laird of Camster
94.197.104.219
The LibDems are predicted to win this seat by The Times.
10 04 27 Boy Waffle
129.215.90.50
I'm honestly surprised to see how close the LibDems came here in 2005: this constituency, which contains many of Edinburgh's working class neighbourhoods, is not exactly prime territory for them. Plus, Mark Lazarowicz seems quite well regarded, even amongst friends of mine who belong to the Scottish Green Party and have been arrested while protesting the Labour government's ID card project!
10 04 11 Rhyddfrydol
92.41.135.249
Despite LibDem hopes this seat should stay Labour.
10 01 23 akava77
82.41.50.175
This will be a close run contest between Labour and SNP, but Labour should just manage to hang on.



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