Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Edinburgh South


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:22:24
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Liberal Democrats
Fred Mackintosh
Labour Party
Ian Murray
Conservative Party
Neil Hudson
Scottish National Party
Sandy Howat
Scottish Green Party
Steve Burgess

Incumbent:
Nigel Griffiths
Edinburgh South (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
68884
2005
60993

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
14188
10291
13783
2635
Other
1801

 


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10 04 27 Boy Waffle
129.215.90.50
The most recent YouGov regional figures put Labour still clearly first in Scotland (36%), with the LibDems leaping into second (25%), the Nats slipping to third (21%), and the Tories trailing a distant fourth (14%). Plugging these numbers into Electoral Calculus' regional predictor (which assumes a uniform swing) results in only three Scottish seats changing hands: Edinburgh South, Aberdeen South (both LibDem gains), and Ochil (a Nat gain). I therefore think these are safe bets, although I actually expect more than just three seats to change hands in Scotland (as uniform swings never actually happen).
10 04 24 former resident
70.29.18.217
easy LD gain.
The LD's will benefit hugely from Clegg's game-changing performance in the TV debate. This is one of many seats where they will see that benefit.
10 04 11 Rhyddfrydol
92.41.135.249
The Times is predicting this seat to fall to the Liberal Democrats
10 04 09 BBC Andrew Black
204.9.162.70
BBC Andrew Black identified this as a battleground seat.
‘In this seat, Labour's majority had risen to 11,452 in the 1997 election. But in 2001 Nigel Griffiths' majority fell by more than half as the Liberal Democrats took second position with 27.4% of the vote. Boundary changes saw the seat gain South Morningside and Fairmilehead which had been part of Edinburgh Pentlands in 2005. Mr Griffiths was returned by 405 votes.’
10 01 24 SGG
86.131.242.5
This is a three way marginal between Labour, the Conservatives and the LibDems. As one of a few seats with a serious chance of a Conservative victory, Edinburgh South is likely to see a strong Conservative campaign. Coupled with the choice of a local candidate, and weak national polling from Labour and the LibDems this should be enough to give the Conservatives the edge.



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