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Constituency Profile
Candidates:
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Liberal Democrats Fred Mackintosh |  |
Labour Party Ian Murray |  |
Conservative Party Neil Hudson |  |
Scottish National Party Sandy Howat |  |
Scottish Green Party Steve Burgess |
Incumbent: |
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Nigel Griffiths Edinburgh South (100 %) |
Electorate: |
Current | 68884 |
2005 | 60993 |
Transposed 2005 Result: Source: Electoral Calculus |
 | 14188 |
 | 10291 |
 | 13783 |
 | 2635 |
Other | 1801 |
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 | 10 04 27 |
Boy Waffle 129.215.90.50 |
The most recent YouGov regional figures put Labour still clearly first in Scotland (36%), with the LibDems leaping into second (25%), the Nats slipping to third (21%), and the Tories trailing a distant fourth (14%). Plugging these numbers into Electoral Calculus' regional predictor (which assumes a uniform swing) results in only three Scottish seats changing hands: Edinburgh South, Aberdeen South (both LibDem gains), and Ochil (a Nat gain). I therefore think these are safe bets, although I actually expect more than just three seats to change hands in Scotland (as uniform swings never actually happen). |
 | 10 04 24 |
former resident 70.29.18.217 |
easy LD gain. The LD's will benefit hugely from Clegg's game-changing performance in the TV debate. This is one of many seats where they will see that benefit. |
 | 10 04 11 |
Rhyddfrydol 92.41.135.249 |
The Times is predicting this seat to fall to the Liberal Democrats |
 | 10 04 09 |
BBC Andrew Black 204.9.162.70 |
BBC Andrew Black identified this as a battleground seat. ‘In this seat, Labour's majority had risen to 11,452 in the 1997 election. But in 2001 Nigel Griffiths' majority fell by more than half as the Liberal Democrats took second position with 27.4% of the vote. Boundary changes saw the seat gain South Morningside and Fairmilehead which had been part of Edinburgh Pentlands in 2005. Mr Griffiths was returned by 405 votes.’ |
 | 10 01 24 |
SGG 86.131.242.5 |
This is a three way marginal between Labour, the Conservatives and the LibDems. As one of a few seats with a serious chance of a Conservative victory, Edinburgh South is likely to see a strong Conservative campaign. Coupled with the choice of a local candidate, and weak national polling from Labour and the LibDems this should be enough to give the Conservatives the edge. |
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