Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:25:05
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Independent
Henry Langen
Plaid Cymru
John Dixon
Liberal Democrats
John Gossage
Labour Party
Nicholas Ainger
UK Independence Party
Ray Clarke
Conservative Party
Simon Hart

Incumbent:
Nick Ainger
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire (98.9 %)
Adam Price
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr (2.5 %)

Electorate:
Current
57143
2005
56984

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
14034
12185
5583
5677
Other
931

 


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09 05 12 Harry Hayfield
86.162.248.51
Carmarthen West is the 51st Conservative target according to the calculations created by Thrasher and Rallings for the Press Association, BBC News, ITN and Sky News and would be a Con GAIN on a swing of 2.66%. The local elections in 2008 were confused slightly due to the large number of Independent who stand in elections therefore the best evidence to use is the Conservative GAIN from Labour in the Assembly Elections of 2007.



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