Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Caerphilly


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:09:09
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Liberal Democrats
Kay David
British National Party
Laurence Reid
Plaid Cymru
Lindsay Whittle
Conservative Party
Maria Caulfield
UK Independence Party
Tony Jenkins
Labour Party
Wayne David

Incumbent:
Mr Wayne David
Caerphilly (93.4 %)

Electorate:
Current
64120
2005
62496

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
20272
5490
3727
6529
Other
606

 


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10 04 06 Safe Bets
204.9.162.70
Labour racked up some 10K+ margin here in the last election. It would require some catastrophic circumstances for them to lose this seat. Gordon Brown and the Labour party appear to have moved past its worst poll numbers and are regaining some ground. While they may not win the election, it is reasonable to expect safe seats like this one to return to the Labour fold.



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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10
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