Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Brecon and Radnorshire


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:05:45
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Labour Party
Christopher Lloyd
UK Independence Party
Clive Easton
Green Party
Dorienne Robinson
Plaid Cymru
Janet Davies
Christian Party
Jeff Green
Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Lord Offa of the Dykes
Liberal Democrats
Roger Williams
Conservative Party
Suzy Davies

Incumbent:
Mr Roger Williams
Brecon & Radnorshire (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
53497
2005
55171

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
5756
13275
17181
1406
Other
721

 


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10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
LDs polling up 10 points in Wales. Should be an easy LD hold.
Ladbrokes: LD 1/5; Con 3/1; Other 100/1
09 08 10 TL
86.128.196.177
Large lib dem majority in previous years. Many LabourPlaidGreen voters would rather vote Lib Dem than Conservative. Given the small percentage of the vote held by these parties, the Liberal Democrats are likely to retain that majority.
09 05 12 Harry Hayfield
86.162.248.51
Brecon and Radnorshire is the 98th Conservative target according to the calculations created by Thrasher and Rallings for the Press Association, BBC News, ITN and Sky News and would be a Con GAIN on a swing of 5.09%. The local elections in 2008 were confused slightly due to the large number of Independent who stand in elections therefore the best evidence to use is the Assembly Elections of 2007. However, although the Lib Dems held the seat, the Assembly constituency had a stronger Lib Dem base than the Westminster seat.



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