Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

North Down


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 20:23:54
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Ulster Conservatives and Unionists
Ian Parsley
Traditional Unionist Voice
Kaye Kilpatrick
Social Democratic & Labour Party
Liam Logan
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
Stephen Farry
Green Party
Steven Agnew
Independent
Sylvia Hermon
Sinn Féin
Vincent Parker

Incumbent:
Lady Sylvia Hermon
North Down (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
57435
2005
59748

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
1009
16268
11324
205
Minor
Parties
2451
Other
1033

 


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10 04 09 ridingbyriding
198.96.35.219
I first wish to note that I am Nick J Boragina from below.
This seat has never been won by a nationalist and probably never will. The race is therefore between the Tories/UUP, the DUP, the TUV, and the sitting MP. In such a race, the sitting MP has a huge head start. This seat has always been the one to buck the trend. In 2005 it went UUP while NI went DUP. In 1997 it went for the UKUP, and went for the UPUP in 1992. Both times the only seat for said party. The UPUP in fact held this as their only seat going back to 1983, prior to which this seat was won by Kilfedder, who formerly supported the UUUC (UUP) and was Anti-White Paper (UUP). I note he was also the UPUP leader and member during the 80's.
Prior to that, there is not much of note in this seat. From then back to 1892 it was held by the Unionists. In the 1880s and prior the Tories held it.
IND Hold
10 03 23 S
188.221.233.12
Hermon is likely to hold her seat, but as an Independent rather than for UUP. She will win due to her likeability locally and the incumbency factor.
09 10 19 Boy Waffle
129.215.91.115
Just to clarify: the UUP and the Conservative Party have an ‘electoral alliance’---they are not ‘united’, largely because of the objections of their _only_ MP in Westminster, a certain Lady Sylvia Hermon who most certainly does _not_ take the conservative whip.
There seems to be some question of whether she will be allowed to stand for the UUP, given her total refusal to co-operate with the Conservative party ihn any way at all. My instinct is that, if she is de-selected, then she will run as an independent and likely win.
09 09 25 Nick J Boragina
198.96.35.219
Now united with the Conservatives (UUP MP's take the Conservative whip in Westminster) we should see an expansion not a contraction of UUP/Conservative members in Northern Ireland.



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