Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Eccles, Kevin

Johnstone, Paul

Jolley, Shane

Kidd, Joel

Marshall, Don

Miller, Jay

Walker, Bill

Incumbent:
Bill Murdoch

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * BILL MURDOCH
    21,15646.61%
    SHANE JOLLEY
    15,03933.14%
    SELWYN HICKS
    6,77414.93%
    PAUL JOHNSTONE
    1,7213.79%
    IRMA DEVRIES
    5501.21%
    WILLIAM COOK
    1450.32%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1307532.09%
    2122552.09%
    412410.12%


  •  


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    11 10 01 The Jackal
    74.12.40.110
    I'm puzzled by all the Liberal predictions in this riding considering this was one of their worst showings in 2007 if not their worst in that election. And with polls having the PC's in the lead and no religious school issue this time this is lock for the Tories with or without Bill Murdoch.
    11 09 29 farmer fred
    216.183.154.177
    I think this riding is going to be closer than people think, but it seems likely it will be a Tory hold. Paul Johnstone is definitely going to dramatically improve his 2008 result, with a solid third place, but that is going to have to do for a sense of success. Kevin Eccles has run the best campaign, and that has given him a bounce and he will likely get close, but still be a few percent behind. Bill Walker's campaign has been okay, not great, but not terrible, and that should be enough to hang on to the seat for team blue. Shane Jolley and Don Marshall will be after thoughts and be struggling to achieve 10% between them.
    So in the end, far more competitive than it has been since 1990, but still a pretty firm seat hold for the Conservatives.
    11 09 22 jguy
    192.206.146.240
    At recent all candidates debates PC Bill Walker has come up embarrassingly out of touch with issues and facts. Kevin Eccles backs up his answers with facts based on his experience. No other candidate has any political experience and it shows. Also Walker used to be a card carrying Liberal (he even supported Eccles when he ran for Liberal nomination a few years ago saying Eccles was the best person to represent the riding. Even worse Mr Opportunity Don Marshal was a PC card member last election and a Liberal card carrying member earlier this year. Now he's running for the Greens and says the environment isn't a big issue! Eccles should pick up votes from all other parties for the win.
    11 09 21 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    BGOS's brand of rural/small-town populism isn't necessarily bonded to the Tories in stone; pre-Murdoch, its legislature figurehead was Liberal Eddie Sargent; and if it weren't for Murdoch's personal strength, his seat might well have gone NDP in 1990--and of course, there's the more recent Green boomlet to consider. Now we have a more sober PC candidate versus take-your-pick--and if provincial were to echo federal, it'd be interesting (and plausible, even) if Johnstone were to surge from the worst NDP result of 2007 (thanks in large part to Shane Jolley) to second place. Or if it's like 1990 again under Horwath, even winning...
    11 09 20 Charlie Edwards
    174.90.123.164
    Wild card riding with no incumbent. Conservatives likely to win with the NDP second. Jail closing a huge issue combined with loss of jobs in Owen Sound. Wind farms are unpopular. This plus the jail closing issue means the Liberal cause is hopeless. NDP came second federally,without a real campaign. And while most of the NDP signs are on lawns, most of Liberal and Green signs are on street corners. Green vote is historically strong, but split and may not materialize at all. Tories are the default vote but all ?Bills? are not necessarily alike.
    11 09 19 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    The Conservatives could run a dog and win this very right wing riding. People of Walkerton still consider Bill Murdoch a hero because he refused to read the report from the official enquiry on why 7 of his constituents died of bad water. Easy win for the Tories here.
    11 09 19 initial
    99.225.63.26
    I don?t live in the riding but I spend about 1/3 of my time there. Bill Murdoch is an institution. He has a great political organization. I don?t see that organization this time. Wind turbines do have supporters here but it seems like the majority are against them. And there are lots of turbines planned for the area. I think that will be the deciding factor and that is not good for the Liberal.
    11 09 18 ruralbelle
    174.117.60.136
    A parachute candidate is someone who has little to no connection with the riding he is representing.
    That is certainly not Bill Walker. He was born in Hepworth, graduated from high school in Wiarton, lived with his family in Hepworth until 8 years ago when he moved a bare 8 kilometres from the Huron-Bruce and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound boundary to Port Egin.
    He is not like Murdoch, but that does not have to be a bad thing! He is intelligent, honest, energetic, a great listener, family-oriented, with a genuine desire to serve the people of BGOS.
    Jolley has split the Green vote, Marshall just doesn't have what it takes (nice guy though), the newest Independent, Jay Miller, already admitted in debate that the race is between Eccles and Walker. Johnstone runs every election and never gets too many votes - this time running on Layton fumes might get him a few more, plus he has a union mentality that people who don't support unions don't relate to.
    And Eccles comes off as a snake-oil salesman. He has a reputation of not doing anything for his constituents as a municipal politician which is not going to get him any votes. And now it is known riding-wide that he says one thing as a mayor and another as a liberal candidate.
    My money is on Walker and that's who I'm voting for!
    11 09 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    I know there's no PC incumbent, but come on! This is a safe PC seat. The fact that the Liberals are running a popular local mayor won't mean anything. We have seen the Liberals do this before, and only get a small bounce. It may be more than a small bounce however, as the Green vote will collapse here. I hear Shane Jolley will be running as an independent.
    11 09 07 EAGLESFAN
    174.88.201.129
    Bill Walker is no Bill Murdoch (the incumbent).People voted for Murdoch because he was Murdoch (a maverick) not because of the colors he wore as a PC. Walker until the time of his PC nomination was a card-carrying voting member of the Liberal party and was one time considered for the candidate of the Liberal party for Bruce-Grey.
    Kevin Eccles is very well known throughout the riding. Councillor,Deputy- Mayor,Mayor of West Grey.Warden of Grey County. Heavily involved in local communities activities,local sports & recreation,and a well known voice and face in the agricultural communities of Bruce-Grey
    Walker lives out of the riding (actually in Huron Bruce riding.)
    Considering the distaste of the area residents to Toronto mentality, I think a ‘parachute candidate’ from out of the riding would turn off even the most vigourous Murdoch supporter
    Considering these facts I sincerely believe that this is a swing riding  and is up for grabs for the Liberals to take after the  reitrement of Mr. Murdoch who seemed unbeatabl;e during his tenure in Queen’s Park
    11 09 04 farmer fred
    216.183.145.31
    Likely Conservative hold. I just spent most of the day in the riding. I think this will be closer than expected, but still a rather comfortable Conservative win. One thing I do know for sure the Greens will not be 2nd, most likely won't even be third and may even be 5th Jolley's surprise move has tanked a Green brand that was already waning. The last provincial election will be seen as the Green high water mark, not likely to be repeated any time soon, if ever. I am also surprised at how little support the Liberals have from traditional supporters. No real surprises to suspect here, but any election night interest will likely be based around who places from 2nd to 5th
    11 08 27 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    long time mpp Bill Murdoch isn't running this year but i suspect this riding still go conservative . greens might be able to hold onto second place but its tough to say as former candidate Shane Jolley has left the party and a new candidate been selected. interestingly green numbers from 07 look almost identical to 2003 liberal numbers of 33 % an indication 07 results were a change in anti-conservative votes not enough to shift the riding just change second place winner.
    11 07 23 farmer fred
    24.38.159.215
    With Shane Jolley splitting with the Greens and running as an independent, Paul Johnstone, the lead voice on the contentious jail closing issue getting the NDP nod, Bill Walker being a pretty weak candidate who doesn't even live in the riding and the McGuinty Liberals DOA in rural Ontario this riding is going to be an interesting one to watch.
    Walker has the ‘we'll vote Conservative even if they are running a dead dog’ factor that gives him the front runner status. But all three other main candidates (the Greens are done here regardless of past results and will slip to a distant 5th) have pockets of strength or vastly increased profile over the last election.
    Even though Conservative retention is the most likely outcome by far, I can see scenarios, however unlikely they might be, where there could be two or three different winners of the riding. One thing for certain- it won't be the Greens and it won't be the Liberals.
    11 07 20 jeff316
    76.10.137.155
    Well, what could have been one of the most eccentric races in the province, personality-wise, has turned out to be a bit of a sleeper. Michael Schmidt lost the Conservative nomination, and with former Green Shane Jolley musing about running as an independent I guess we'll see if his previous success was down to the Green label or personal popularity. Either way, both of these developments hurt the Green chances of improving on their previous result. They may still score second, but this race seems like a Conservative cakewalk to me.
    11 07 18 Initial
    70.26.119.150
    I live in this riding and with the knowledge that the large majority of residents are angry at the Liberals for the Green Energy Act, the HST and the closure of the Owen Sound jail this is a safe hold for the Conservatives.
    The Green candidate , Shane Jolley, who did so well here in 2007 was passed over for Don MArshall a much less well known man and without Jolley's charisma; if the federal election is any hint the green party went from 27% in 2008 to just 9.9 % this spring.
    11 05 19 farmer fred
    24.38.159.215
    Actually this is not a traditionally Conservative riding provincially. Before Murdoch this was a strong Liberal riding. Shane Jolley has announced he is seeking the Green nomination- so assuming he wins it, I expect this to be a strong contest.
    One interesting factor coming into play locally is the McGuinty Liberals are closing the local jail in Owen Sound (and in the next door riding of Huron-Bruce in Walkerton) for a combined total job loss of 100 good paying jobs and about 6 million in combined payroll- for no particularly compelling reason when you look at the numbers. This will sink whatever prospects the Liberal sacrificial lamb might have had. So if nothing much changes on the provincial scene I expect it to look something like Cons narrow win over Greens, NDP and Liberals fight for a distant 3rd and 4th with the NDP coming in 3rd.
    11 03 02 MF
    70.48.66.167
    The Green ‘official opposition’ factor makes this riding somewhat interesting but I'm pretty sure the Conservatives will easily hold on. While Bill Murdoch was personally popular, this is a Conservative riding historically. The Green vote is mainly at the expense of the Liberals and NDP. Not to mention the Conservatives are likely to be making gains province-wide, and John Tory was a liability in traditional PC ridings such as this.
    11 02 02
    156.34.221.23
    Clearly the outgoing member transcended his party's popularity and with him retiring there is a chance of a Green win. The other parties are non-factors.



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