Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

York South-Weston


Prediction Changed
2011-10-07 10:29:22
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Albanese, Laura

Compton, Eric

Daniel, Lan

Ferreira, Paul

Jarrett, Keith

Radejewsky, Mark Michael

Incumbent:
Laura Albanese

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    LAURA ALBANESE
    13,84642.94%
    * PAUL FERREIRA
    13,39441.54%
    KAREN MCMILLAN
    3,1739.84%
    ANTHONY GRATL
    1,2263.80%
    MARCO DIAS
    3851.19%
    MARIANGELA SANABRIA
    2180.68%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1697961.31%
    402714.54%
    529519.12%


  •  


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    11 10 05 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    Liberal MPP Laura Albanese barely finished ahead of Paul Ferreira in 2007. The NDP are up in the polls in Toronto this time and this should be enough to tip the balance to Ferreira in the rematch. I've also see a few Tory signs in York South Weston that haven't been there before. I can see the Tory candidate Lan Daniel getting more than the 3100 votes the Tories got in this riding in 2007. Give this one to the NDP.
    11 09 27 jeff316
    76.10.134.59
    York South-Weston will never be the type of riding where the NDP wins clear majorities. It'll always be a squeaker. That being said, in this election the NDP vote could bottom-out and they’d still pick this one up. If you visited the riding you wouldn’t even know that Albanese or Daniel are running.
    11 09 26 Edmund O'Connor
    70.30.87.248
    An earlier commenter not counting out Lan Daniel deserves a response.
    1. Joe Daniel is MP for Don Valley East, a number of ridings away. He is a low-profile backbencher whose own constituents would struggle to pick out of a line-up, never mind another riding's constituents across town. Name recognition can be safely dismissed.
    2. Daniel has not attended any all-candidates' debates in this campaign. In a riding where constituents value candidates actually showing up to be scrutinized, this is another mark against her.
    3. In terms of signs, Daniel is far, far behind Albanese, never mind Paul Ferreira. This suggests a limp campaign which is just phoning it in.
    4. *Two* campaign managers? Why? Having two campaign managers can lead to administrative mayhem, whereas with one, the responsibilities are clear. This also suggests a half-hearted campaign.
    5. I would challenge the commenter to find anyone other than a diehard Liberal who would suggest that either Albanese is in for a very, very tough fight with Ferreira; or that Ferreira is looking good for the win.
    6. Albanese's incumbency works both ways. She is running on her record, but Ferreira can use her record to beat her around the head with. In particular, her weakness on the ARL and diesel train file has been brought back to haunt her.
    The commenter is giving both the Albanese and Daniel campaigns too much credit (in Daniel's case, way too much), and Ferreira's far too little.
    11 09 25 Howard Earle Halpern
    70.50.56.27
    Either the New Democratic, Liberal, or Conservative candidate will win.
    1. I take seriously the predictions of fellow contributors to the Election Prediction Project and experienced politicos who are active on Twitter, most of whom predict an NDP win.
    2. Incumbency is a huge advantage that should not be discounted. The Liberal incumbent could be conserving her resources with the intention of using them in the last week of her campaign, when they will have increased potency. Furthermore, the incumbent is a member of a back-to-back-majority, governing party with access to information other parties lack. Also, last-minute events often have a huge impact on election results.
    3. If the Liberal candidate gains momentum, this will likely draw strength from the NDP.
    4. The Conservative candidate was nominated very late in the game. The fact that she has had less prominence than some of the other candidates is a reflection of this fact and not necessarily a reflection of her competence. I have seen her resume, and it is quite strong (see www.LanDaniel.com, bottom of home page).
    5. I have been in touch with Lan Daniel almost daily, and I know that she has been canvassing seven days a week. Furthermore, I know, from brief discussions with her, that she has been working extremely hard on her campaign. She has not one, but two, campaign managers. She has put together a strong team within a very short period of time. Those who support her are highly dedicated and motivated.
    6. The recent election of Joe Daniel as MP gives Lan Daniel significant name recognition, a critical factor in any political contest.
    7. The Conservative, Liberal, and New Democratic parties are all well-established and have strong organizations in Ontario.
    8. For these reasons, although it is an uphill battle for the Conservative candidate, I believe it is too early to discount Lan Daniel as a contender for the office of MPP.
    11 09 17 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    You can say this, definitely: even if he lost his 2007 general-election bid, Paul Ferreira permanently realigned (or, given riding history, restored) YSW's electoral-inclination parameters--by proving the NDP's viability, he enabled Mike Sullivan to do far better than even Ferreira did federally. Of course, diehard Liberal strategists might offer that this time, he *doesn't* have ?incumbent advantage?, nyah nyah--but when we're talking about a cycle where the broader Lib-NDP margin has been reduced to single digits from nearly 25 points, it doesn't matter.
    11 09 02 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    I think this seat will go NDP again. The 2007 race was very close, but that was when the NDP was polling in the high teens. Today, they are polling much higher in the mid 20s, close to what they got in the federal election. The party won this seat in the federal election with a much weaker candidate than former MPP Ferreira. Easy NDP win!
    11 08 05 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    binriso's bang on, the riding's been traditionally NDP, Dalton and the Liberal brand seem to be a liability this time around and also, to Horwath's credit, she's working hard and both her approval rating and her party support's on the rise. NDP pick up.
    11 07 31 eb119
    99.239.108.229
    The only reason the NDP incumbent lost here last time was because of a large Liberal support surge. With the former NDP MPP running here again, this one should go NDP
    11 07 08 Marshall Howard Bader
    74.14.156.77
    This is a re-match and will be a close one. Edge goes to Paul Ferrera for a number of reasons: Federal NDP took the seat, people upset about deisel trains, Ferrera will have an army, and Albanese is all but invisible.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    69.165.140.179
    Ferreira in a squeaker simply because he won't have the coattails of Layton, the federal NDP brand or the NDP surge that took place in May. Albanese only beat him by 500 votes last time. Considering the changing demographics of the area, McGuinty's 'popularity' and the Liberal brand problems I'm certain there are more than 500 people *not* considering voting Liberal in this riding.
    11 05 03 LF
    74.216.238.130
    It seemed this could safely be highlighted as an NDP pickup BEFORE the federal election. With the NDP's Mike Sullivan picking up the seat federally, and knocking off a long time incumbent in the process, this should be identified likely NDP.
    Laura Albanese has been largely absent in this riding, McGuinty is bleeding support, and the NDP has shown it's a force to be reckoned with.
    If I were to guess right now, I'd suggest Paul Ferreira walks away with this one.
    11 02 16 MF
    74.15.64.37
    Paul Ferreira has reinvigorated the NDP in York South-Weston. After winning a stunning upset in a (lower-turnout) by-election and only lost by a hair in '07. The Liberal MPP Laura Albanese hasn't distinguished herself and with the Liberals almost certain to lose ground this year, the NDP should take this with Ferreira running again.
    11 02 11 binriso
    156.34.209.159
    This is the seat of Joliffe, MacDonald and Lewis (and Rae too I guess). Really shouldnt go anything but NDP.



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