Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Don Valley East

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Bedrosyan, Aren

Coteau, Michael

Hilliard, Bob

Kidd, Ryan

Lende, Michael

Simmons, Wayne

David Caplan


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 seasaw
    A month ago, when the PC's were poised to win a majority, this riding could've been considered a PC pick up. Now with the Liberals poised to win either a majority or at least a strong minority, they'll win this one by a comfortable margin.
    11 10 04 Marco Ricci
    The new Liberal candidate won't know the riding as well as David Caplan did, but considering all the scandals Caplan was involved in, and the question of his competence in handling E-Health and the Ontario Lottery, it might actually be a good thing for the Liberals that he is gone.
    11 10 02 MH
    With the Liberals and Tories apparently tied in the province, with the Libs well ahead of the Tories in 416, and with the Liberals having won this seat easily in 2007, this should ordinarily be a safe Liberal hold. However, David Caplan isn't running this time, and Michael Coteau may not do as well as Caplan did. If the NDP picks up a lot of support at the expense of the Libs, Michael Lende may just win this by a whisker. Another interesting race to watch on October 6.
    11 09 25 AD
    This riding looks like a safe LPO hold to me. Not having the incumbent is a disadvantage, but I don't think it's enough to lose so many votes. Admittedly this riding went PC in the Federal Election but I'm not sure this election is going in the same way as that one did. Regardless, I don't see the PCs having much traction in any of the regional polling of the 416 region. They shouldn't, in my view, be much of a challenge for the LPO here.
    11 09 19 DVPro-lifer
    I am still giving a razor-thin edge to the PCs, but Michael Coteau was at my door today and we talked for about 5 minutes (impressive considering he was trying to blitz the whole high-rise). Articulate guy and more amenable to abortion regulations than any Liberal I have met for a long time. Being a bit socially conservative probably won't hurt him. Most of my neighbourhood is South Asian/Middle Eastern immigrants who are probably socially conservative and fiscally liberal.
    11 09 19 Tomas Parke
    The three candidates in DVE have resumes that are easily compared to see who the best candidate would be for the riding. As a TDSB trustee, Michael Coteau links academic success with race, ethnicity, family income and the like. He championed the Africentric school that divided Toronto's black community, with people like Jordan Manner's mother saying that segregating black kids in not the answer to their lack of academic success. And the school closures in Toronto this coming year - 8 to be exact. Bob Hilliard is a doctor, professor and sunday school teacher. What can you say about that. Michael Lende, along with bringing Zipcar to Canada, is also the long time President of the York Mills Hockey Association as well as coaching minor hockey in our community. He coached the Don Mills Flyers ?AAA? team. He has also coached in the Memorial Cup hockey tournament with Chicoutimi during his years as a full time hockey coach. He was also part of the first wave of young coaches in professional hockey when the Detroit Red Wings hired him to be an assistant with the IHL affiliate. And both Hilliard and Lende live in the riding. They raise or raised their children here, Coteau doesn't even live in the riding.
    11 09 17 A.S.
    Looks like the perfect balance of 3 potentially viable contenders here (a Zipcar Tory? Imagine that)--and yeah, after the federal result we can safely say ?3?, even if due to riding configurations and candidates the NDP would *not* have notionally won within these boundaries in 1990. (Though who knows how much the astonishing NDP quarter-of-the-vote here had to do with the candidate--future Ford-deputation ?yelly granny? folk hero Mary Trapani Hynes.) Right now, let's just call this a belwether seat and be done with it.
    11 09 02 DVPro-lifer
    Although I was glad to see the Conservatives take this seat federally, let's not forget that the Conservative vote did not actually increase very much here. It was only because of the Orange Crush and the collapse of the Liberal vote that the Conservative sneaked up the middle.
    McGuinty's Ontario vote is not collapsing the way that Ignatieff's vote did federally.
    That said, the incumbent is retiring, and there is a strong mood for change provincially after back-to-back Liberal majorities and an increasing tax burden.
    I live in this riding and I call it a toss-up, with the narrowest edge for the PCs. If the Liberal vote collapses or the NDP surges, I will be more confident in my prediction.
    11 08 31 Not Non-Partisan
    Michael Lende will win this one for the Tories. He's well organized, got cash, got Denzil, and the Libs are on the run here. Longtime Lib MP Yasmin Ratanzi got clobbered by a no-name in May. Why would the same people vote Lib now? Caplan saw the writing on the wall and bailed.
    11 08 15 R.O.
    I would expect this riding to be more competitive than previous years but its tough to say if liberals are actually better off without the scandal plagued David Caplan on the ballot . there new candidate former toronto school trusteee Michael Coteau might actually have an easier time running here than if David Caplan had run for re-election and had to explain his troublesome last few years in office to his constituents. as for the other candidates not alot is known about new tory candidate Michael Lende but after the shocking federal win here they might target this riding a bit more if they feel Toronto is a place they can make gains.
    11 07 26 seasaw
    I'm going to have to change my prediction. David Caplan announced that he is retiring, with him gone and a strong NDP candidate, this riding becomes as wide open as the top of a barrel.
    11 07 13 LondonMike
    With the NDP having a very strong canadidate, Paediatrican Robert Hilliard from Sick Kids, this could well be another 3-way race, especially with Caplan retiring.
    11 02 17 seasaw
    While there are signs that the Liberal 416 fortress is springing leaks, this particular one seems to be pretty safe. In spite of Caplan's problems, he's a safe bet here. The first time he ran, he defeated Barbara Greene, she almost unseated Mel Lastman, and David did a better job in defeating her than Lastman. The he beat a star cabinet minister, and he's just kept winning. He'll continue to do so this time.

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