Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Don Valley West


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Ahmed, Khalid

Deb, Soumen

Fliss, Louis

Kabitsis, Dimitris

Mandel-Campbell, Andrea

Waigh, Rosemary

Wynne, Kathleen

Incumbent:
Hon Kathleen O. Wynne

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * KATHLEEN WYNNE
    23,08050.44%
    * JOHN TORY
    18,15639.68%
    ADRIAN WALKER
    2,2024.81%
    MIKE KENNY
    2,1384.67%
    DANIEL KIDD
    1830.40%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1838250.82%
    1472640.71%
    190705.27%


  •  


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    11 10 05 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    Well, this was another winable riding for the Tories, had they played their cards right, but they didn't. Three weeks ago when Wynn made a comment about school prayers ( remember this was the same ex education minister who chastised John Tory for school funding ) making a stupid comment, that should have been enough to end her career. Another lost opportunity, with polls showing Liberals out in front, they're certain to keep this riding.
    11 10 03 MH
    70.50.66.112
    On further reflection: there is another joker in the deck, i.e., the number of people who will vote NDP. Given that Andrea Horwath is running a strong campaign, her candidate in DVW may take just enough votes from Wynne to allow Mandel-Campbell to win narrowly. Something similar happened in the recent federal election. So DVW may be TCTC. Another interesting race to watch on October 6.
    11 09 30 MH
    70.50.66.112
    Drove along Sutherland, from Bayview to Glenvale, to count signs. The tally: Wynne 15, Mandel-Campbell 12. None for the NDP and Green candidates. When I did this count in 2007, the tally was Wynne 21, Tory 17, and that was two weeks before the election. Evidently active interest is lower this time. That's not surprising: Tory was the party leader, Mandel-Campbell is not. The joker in the deck is the absence in this election of the schools issue, which polarized voters last time. Still, my assessment remains that Wynne should prevail fairly easily.
    11 09 17 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Wynne is ?defeatable? by riding-demographic default (which is why I'm reluctant to pencil her in as a dead cert)--but she has it set up to the point where if she falls *now*, it'll be an outpolling-the-party-but-still-can't-stop-the-wave heartbreaker a la the PCs' David Young in Willowdale in '03. And like David Young then, she's been raised as a future-provincial-leadership figure; so...watch this space.
    11 09 17 JR Toronto
    184.145.86.234
    Did a drive through of the riding (leaside area) and did a sign count. There were 67 Wynne signs, 31 PC signs, and one green signs. The count last time was much more even. The Tories are well back in the poll in 416 (although the NDP is very strong). Time to call this one for Wynne.
    11 09 15 MH
    174.89.119.12
    Four years ago I was surprised by the margin of Kathleen Wynne's victory. Having knocked off John Tory by almost 5,000 votes, she is unlikely to be beaten by Andrea Mandel-Campbell. Add to this that the PCs seem to be running well behind the Liberals in the 416, and a Liberal hold is indicated.
    11 09 14 MF
    74.15.65.107
    Kathleen Wynne is highly respected and will be re-elected. The Hudak campaign is losing ground in Toronto and John Tory was more appealing in a riding like DVW than Hudak is, in spite of his unpopular school funding plank.
    11 09 13 Stevo
    99.232.142.184
    I tend to agree that Kathleen Wynne is unbeatable here. Quite astounding that the riding that was considered the most small-c conservative in the 416 has been overtaken, almost out of nowhere, by Eg-Law, York-Centre, and others that were Liberal locks for decades with few exceptions.
    11 09 08 Marshall Howard Bader
    207.236.90.177
    Agree with JR and disagree with NP.  Carmichael won federally but only by 500 votes in an election when the libs were being wiped out.  Parker won both his elections on split votes.
    And yes Wynne is a giant.  Tory was well respected in the area yet he still lost and by a wide margin. The north end demographips of the riding may be Tory. But the 3/4 of the riding to the south are solid Lib.  The far south is even more typical of NDP demographics.
    My prediction: Wynne is safe.
    11 08 31 Not Non-Partisan
    70.27.3.100
    Great Tory demographics here. Wynne is no giant. Just a school trustee in the right place at the right time. She beat John Tory because he self-immolated for the whole province to watch. John Parker won against all the prognosticators in the October municipal election as did John Carmichael in the May federal. This is just a deep-down Tory riding.
    11 07 08 JR Toronto
    74.14.156.77
    Kathleen Wynne is a giant killer (not to mention a giant herself). Doesn't matter how the Libs are doing across the province KW will win on her personal popularity. Lots of NDP and PC supporters will vote for KW once again. Add to all this an army of teachers to work the campaign and you have a Liberal hold here.
    11 02 28 GV
    99.241.119.76
    This is a very weird riding. What should be, on paper, the PC's best hope for a 416 pickup (and I think they'll have precious few of those) is instead, in my view, leaning towards the Libs at this point. I can't find any info on a PC nomination meeting, or prospective candidates, at this point; therefore, I won't call this riding just yet. However, Kathleen Wynne seems to have built a substantial personal following over the years (speaking as somebody who never expected John Tory to win DVW last time). There should, theoretically, be a rabbit for the PCs to pull out of a hat and win here, but whether they can find that rabbit is another story. TCTC for now.
    11 02 25 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    So, Kathleen Wynne's going to win because she's very popular here, right? Not so fast. Remember David Turnbull was once very popular here, and he lost. Given the current situation, with the Liberals trailing in polls provincially, and in a statistical dead heat with the Tories in 416, this is one riding that is in play, given the fact that about 9 of the 416 ridings are absolute Tory wastelands. We'll have a better idea about this riding once we're closer to election day.
    11 02 21 odude22
    173.32.205.82
    Kathleen Wynne has maintained her popularity in this riding. Liberal's win easily.
    11 02 18 binriso
    156.34.213.168
    This is one riding where I actually expect the Liberals to gain some votes, obviously a huge PC effort put in here last time with their leader still lost by 11 points. Kathleen Wynne is certainly very popular here and should not have any trouble, even if the tide is against the party.



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