Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50

Constituency Profile


Brister, Dave

Matyi, Jason

Natyshak, Taras

Schmidt, Ken

Bruce Crozier


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 J.O.
    The Ipsos-Reid poll shows the Liberals back in the lead in the southwest. With just one day left to campaign, the Liberals have 36% support, the NDP has 34%, and the Conservatives trail with 28%. It's difficult to envision a riding like this that was solidly Liberal going into this campaign changing hands now.
    11 10 04 AD
    This riding will be a close three-way race but I predict LPO hold. Being up in recent polls suggests to me it they will hold a seat here ekeing the win out over the PCs and NDP. It being an open seat however, means it could go to any of the three big parties.
    11 10 04 binriso
    Might be a very close race now that the Liberals are back ahead provincially. The PCs are not polling much higher than last time provincially while the NDP are about 8-10 points higher and have been quite strong here in comparison to other rural ridings in the area. All three could potentially win, though being that the NDP are more focused in the Windsor/London area in the Southwest compared to the other two parties fighting it out everywhere they may have a bit of an advantage.
    11 10 02 Initial
    Dr. Lloyd Brown-John called voters of the riding redneck and fundamentalist in his usual anti-Conservative diatribe in the Windsor Star. Nonetheless, Dr. Brown-John, a partisan Liberal, predicted a Brister victory.
    It's hard to see any other outcome. Schmidt made no friends among the farm community with his punitive decisions at ERCA, and is also regarded with skepticism by the environmental community for his management style. The NDP of today is not the NDP of yesterday, choosing instead an urban focus, although I will give them credit for leaving the fringes and taking on Tory turf with an interesting platform. Natyshak is an impressive candidate although his pro-Labour views are largely out of sync with hard working agricultural entrepreneurs trying to make ends meet. Nonetheless he has a solid base and in a tight three way split he could take it.
    Brister's victory is predicted as the voters of Essex have learned what happens as a bellwether. You get noticed. You get money. Under the governing party, the taps are turned on. No more wasted time in opposition crying in the wilderness. And there are more Brister signs out there along the county highways than any other (although Natyshak is close behind).
    If only the two Windsor ridings saw it this way.
    11 10 01 Double J
    The Windsor Star is correct that Essex is a three way race. We are going to see that every riding where there is a three way race is going to go Conservative as the Liberals and NDP split the vote. It happened in the May federal election and it will happen on October 6. Remember, three way race means Conservative victory as Dave Brister wins Essex for the Tories.
    11 09 30 J.O.
    The Windsor Star reports that this is a three-way race but none of the candidates have really connected with voters. As a result, voters are most likely to stay with the party they have proven to be most comfortable with in this riding and that's the Liberals.
    11 09 25 LTC
    It' Taras Natyshak's election to lose. He has the momentum going into this election, however Dave Brister has hit the ground running and he seems to have an unlimited budget. If Taras remains confident and gets a little more exposure now until election day, he will finally become the professional politian he so badly wants to become.
    11 09 25 AD
    An interesting race that will be close. With the LPO close to the PC party in the latest polls, I predict the LPO should retain a bit of a bump from the incumbent and come out on top of this three way race. Then again, I'm not entirely sure about this one and I think the PCs do have a solid chance here.
    11 09 21 DL
    This is one of the likelier NDP pickups in the election. The Liberals have no incumbent and their support has really crashed in the southwest. The NDP candidate Taras Natyshak has been getting more votes each time he runs and got 37% federally. The PC campaign in Ontario has been a bit of a bust - so I predict Natyshak gets about 40% of the vote and leaves the others in the dust. The Liberals will be a distant third here.
    11 09 20 TJ
    Clear Liberal loss. Either NDP or PC. Brister has many signs up, but I see more NDP signs in the riding. Natyshak has done the ground work, and Brister is only in the paper because he is missing debates. NDP pickup.
    11 09 18 A.S.
    I don't know why people want to make a big deal out of Natyshak being a ?career loser?, given how the NDP has a decent critic-slaying record of so-called career losers ultimately prevailing (like, federally speaking, Marston, Charlton, Mathyssen). If anything, vestigial provincial Liberal strength ought to be a vote-splitting plus on Natyshak's behalf--though a little odd that the provincial Grits are now being deemed also-rans by some observers, given how under Crozier and Remo Mancini they *owned* much of this turf through the 80s and 90s...
    11 09 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    The Tories have to have the advantage here in Essex. The Liberal incumbent, Bruce Crozier will not be running again. Without the power of incumbency, the Liberals will more than likely fall to third here. The NDP is running Taras Natyshak, who has been slowly increasing the NDP vote here in the last 2 federal elections. This will turn out to be an NDP vs PC fight, but it's too much of a rural riding to go NDP. I don't see Natyshak being able to increase the NDP vote much higher than the 35% received in the federal election.
    11 09 13 Stevo
    I think the PCs will finally take Essex just as their federal cousin first did in the 2004 federal election. McGuinty made a lot of enemies by pushing through wind power development in Lake Erie, possibly threatening birdlife in Point Pelee National Park. It's also the kind of seat where the Liberals really didn't need the affirmative action scandal for recent immigrants to blow up the way it did.
    11 09 11 jeff316
    Natyshak will likely lose, again, but he's doing anything but mailing it in. He's the strongest NDP candidate in Essex for a decade and has three elections-worth of name recognition under his belt, plus momentum from the previous election where he was a good second. Without the momentum of the federal conservatives, the incumbency factor, and losing the name-recognition race from the get go, Brister will still win, but not by as much as his supporters seem to think.
    11 09 10 R.O.
    One of a few ridings that are a true 3 way race this year , the passing of well respected mpp Bruce Crozier has created an opening for a new mpp for Essex . something the riding has not seen in a longtime. it could potential go liberal , pc or ndp . however i suspect the Ontario pc's have somewhat of an advantage here and they hold the federal riding of Essex and have well known Windsor city councillor Dave Brister running for them . however Essex has always remained a competitve race each federal election. The ndp have a good candidate in Taras Natyshak but he was unable to get elected during the orange surge this spring federally in the same riding so unsure of his chances provincially. the liberals have a new candidate in Ken Schmidt and personally i'd be very surpised if they hold the riding this year.
    11 09 09 Stevo
    11 08 10 Mike Rourke
    This will be a blood bath. The PCs have the only viable candidate in this riding. The Liberal candidate has never stood for election and the NDP candidate is a career loser. 0 for 3 so far, soon to be 0 for 4. Brister seems to be the only candidate working for it. He has personally been to my door step and all I hear is ‘Brister,Brister,Brister’ from anyone with any political sense in my area.
    To me, Natyshak and Schmidt see the writing on the wall and it seems like they are mailing it in.
    Look for an outright majority to have this riding go blue in October.
    11 07 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Well...look who the NDP got to run for them! This has become far more interesting and we're willing to call this a three-way race. Let's see who the Liberals are able to net as a candidate.
    11 06 21 seasaw
    Well Bruce Crozier, a longtime great MPP has passed away. The Liberals may get some sympathy votes. NDP is also strong here, but I think in a close 3 way race, the PC's will come on top.
    11 06 09 SB
    MPP Crozier's death would give the Liberals a small bump here. All three major parties have a fair chance of winning here. However, I feel like the liberals will narrowly hold this one.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    Can the provincial NDP get Taras Natyshak to run provincially? Word is that the answer is no, and if that's the case there go any hope of an NDP win. That being said, NDP strength in Essex means it will be on the NDP's 20-riding hit-list and they'll likely come in second. The Liberals have never been all that strong in Essex despite electing Crozier.
    11 03 08 MF
    While the Liberals won big in Essex last time, there's likely to be a real battle here, potentially a three-way battle. The Conservatives hold this one federally, but their vote total was greatly depressed by John Tory's disastrous campaign last time. The NDP also has some potential here - they took 28% of the vote in 2003.
    11 03 07 Craig
    Too close to call. Bruce Crozier appears headed for retirement, and this would be a prime PC pickup if the seat opens up. However, the NDP vote is also fairly solid here (not as strong as federally though due to the overspill of Windsor) and that could easily slide back to the Liberals in a repeat of 1999. Together, that should make this a close race and probably the tightest race in the extreme southwest.

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