Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Kitchener Centre


Prediction Changed
2011-10-07 10:30:04
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Atsiz, Bugra

Bernier, Patrick G

Corbiere, Mark

Dearlove, Cameron

MacDonald, Dave

Milloy, John

Vercouteren, Mark

Incumbent:
Hon John Milloy

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * JOHN MILLOY
    17,48445.90%
    MATT STANSON
    9,71725.51%
    RICK MOFFITT
    6,70717.61%
    DANIEL LOGAN
    3,1628.30%
    WILLIAM BERNHARDT
    5991.57%
    JOHN DONALD MCGUIRE
    4251.12%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1616341.74%
    1447237.37%
    600915.52%


  •  


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    11 10 05 DTC
    99.236.241.175
    I think people in Kitchener understand that ?the jury? is no longer out on global warming and that just because you are a former weather man does not mean you are an environmental expert. Things brought to Kitchener Centre while John Milloy has been in office: pharmacy school; medical school; school of social work; court house, etc. Milloy has been an affective MP and a competent minister. NDP is not running as strong here as they are in KW riding...not likely to be a major factor. Dave MacDonald, global warming denial aside, is well known and has a lot of signs out. His public denial of global warming should hurt him as The Record ran an opinion piece about this the day after the debate.
    11 10 03 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    The local media are calling Kitchener a three way race. We are going to see on election night that anywhere there is a three way race, the Tories are going to win as the Liberals and NDP split the vote. That's what happened in the federal election and it's happening in the provincial election. As a result Dave MacDonald will defeat John Milloy with Cameron Dearlove coming a strong third.
    11 09 24 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This riding is going to be alot closer than in 2007 , was mentioned in the new forum poll as being one of the ridings within margin of error and they actually had all 3 kitchener ridings in that range so we could see some close races here. after the 2 surprising federal wins for the conservatives here its not out of reach for the provincial party as long as things stay close until voting day. John Milloy is the most well known of the main candidates but Dave Mcdonald comes with a certain amount of appeal as well and delivered the weather for years so voters trust him. i don't know unless one of the parties takes the lead its going to remain close here i would suspect.
    11 09 21 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    A qualified note re the fed Grits *only* losing by 5,500 votes: if it weren't Karen Redman going for the rematch, they would have done much worse, maybe even third-place worse. (Besides, the situation was similar next door in Kitchener-Waterloo--provincially, Liz Witmer's seat.) On a parallel note, even if the Tory is ‘everybody's favourite uncle’, given the overall NDP-ward trend and latent innerurban party base here, I can see this gravitating into a three-way...
    11 09 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    Kitchener Centre for its short existence as a riding has been a bellwether, and it will probably go for the winning party this time. Having said that, with the Liberals on top in the polls this week, that means a Liberal victory. Milloy won by nearly 8,000 votes in 2007, and the Liberals still did well in the federal election *only* losing by 5,500 votes.
    11 04 14 OgtheDim
    173.206.209.62
    Nominating Dave MacDonald is like nominating everybody's favourite uncle. He's more well known here then the mayor. Not sure how he will do against people who don't like him, but its hard to find somebody in K-W that dislikes him.
    It will take a Liberal wave to beat him, and as I get the feeling, despite the polls, that we might be heading for a minority Tory government, just to put a check on the PC's more right wing approaches, Dave should win this one.
    11 03 20 Mark-R.
    207.164.79.94
    Dave Macdonald of CTV-Kitchener was just acclaimed as the PC candidate for Kitchener-Centre – very popular television personality in the area for over 30 years and well known in community service. Milloy has the weight of McGuinty around his neck. With polls showing the Liberals down to the mid-thirties – and the PC’s up – this will flip to the PC’s. Solid PC gain.
    11 03 12
    99.236.27.230
    While all three KW ridings flipped to the Conservatives in the last federal election, I believe John Milloy has a strong chance of retaining his seat. He is widely respected, has been seen as a competent voice for the government, and won by a substantial margin in 2007.
    11 03 10 Art
    174.95.66.11
    Milloy has a sort of professorial geekness about him that makes him almost A-political. This is what might save him with a blue wave building off shore. Likely, Liberal.



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