Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Kitchener-Waterloo


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Cisterna, Isabel

Davis, Eric

Davis, Peter

McGuire, J.D.

Motz, Melanie

Witmer, Elizabeth

Incumbent:
Elizabeth Witmer

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * ELIZABETH WITMER
    20,74840.84%
    LOUISE ERVIN
    15,84831.20%
    CATHERINE FIFE
    8,90217.52%
    JUDY GREENWOOD-SPEERS
    4,7079.27%
    LOUIS REITZEL
    5981.18%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1956639.48%
    2174143.87%
    525510.60%


  •  


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    11 10 04 DTC
    99.236.241.175
    I'm going to go out on a limb here...Witmer has a commercial on local TV (read: desperation?) and Isabel Cisterna is playing a hard ground game. Her signs are everywhere, especially on people's lawns, and you see her on the streets. She is going door to door. Witmer is capable, but she's been around for a long time and it's hard for her to talk about change due to her perpetual incumbency. I wouldn't bet against someone as competent as her without reason. I think this race is between the PCs and the NDP the Liberal candidate is somewhat invisible.
    11 09 29 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    If Witmer weren't the incumbent, K-W would be much more of an EPP talking point--come to think of it, that recent maybe-cum-grano-salis Toronto Star poll suggests that perhaps it should *still* be a talking point. A measure of the unique PC-incumbent-in-an-atypical-for-the-PCs-riding circumstance is that in '07, a lot of that inner-Waterloo/north-Kitchener turf verged on something like a *four*-way-race situation. With Hudak treading water, maybe when it comes to Witmer, the unthinkable should still be considered...
    11 06 26 Demarcoa
    99.236.96.112
    As much as I dislike the idea, between vote splitting and a strong dislike of the liberal party that currently exists, it is highly unlikely that anyone but Witmer will win this riding. I think this is best supported by the latest Forum poll which has the liberals and NDP almost tied way below the tories who are at about 41%. This is further supported by the relatively large sample size this poll used, however it is still a long time before election day so who knows things may change before then (they sure changed during the federal election).
    11 04 15 JB
    216.211.113.128
    Witmer owns this provincial riding for as long as she runs.
    11 02 01 Billy Bob
    24.141.167.118
    The Unsinkable Elizabeth Witmer is running for re-election, and will win in a landslide. Easy PC hold.



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