Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50

Constituency Profile


Armstrong, Teresa

Durnin, Dave

Hamadi, Ali

Harnick, Tim

Lazar, Bassam

Miller, Cheryl

Ramal, Khalil

Khalil Ramal


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 03 prognosticator15
    This one is always hard to predict, but it is a three-way race for sure. Public opinion polls are unreliable at a constituency level anywhere, but in a riding like this they are even worse. Using the polls to shore support for the leader (currently Armstrong, supposedly), creating a bandwagon effect? It does not always work this way. Public opinion is so volatile here, too many people do not have consistent preferences and change the intentions often. Lots of mostly leftist 'redistributive', anti-big guys populism is here, but also some social conservatism (the latter giving a glimmer of hope to PCs, in particular after today's incident with 'transgendered' opponent shouting at Hudak here in London, soon after Hudak draw attention to anti-family sex education elementary school curriculum plans of McGuinty government; this will give extra reasons for many to vote a PC candidate here). It's too early to write off Ramal; 15% behind in the local polls is not much in such a volatile environment (plus, the poll is unreliable; in federal elections, most local polls did not predict a winner correctly). Although the Liberals do not have a solid constituency of London North Centre here, their machine is well organized, and at least a part of left vote remains with them loyally. NDP candidate Armstrong herself is not as well known as her husband who was recently reelected a city councillor in a section of this riding. Whether family connections matter, is unclear, but I doubt this is a factor. If it is, it may work both ways: not everyone is happy about the same family having all representation. Armstrong's best hopes, without much personal strength, are in firing up left populism and in party's supposed 'small guy' image as opposed to unionist image (the way Horwath tried to market herself). Cheryl Miller may also get in, but only on a vote split by attracting some of the same 'small guy' vote (paradoxically) NDP is fighting for, in addition to disaffected Liberal vote, those complaining of continuously growing taxes, money waste on 'ecoprojects', poor health services etc. With previously stale socially conservative vote now energized for the PC, Miller's chances increase; yet, I agree the party has a support ceiling here. All campaigns are well advertised, and it is not as simple for many as just switching from one party to another. Hate to say that, but the winner here may be determined by issues as small as the weather on election day. Not a clear prediction, of course, but I cannot even think of ranking candidates' chances here. The riding to watch on election night, for sure.
    11 09 27 jeff316
    Three way race means it's anyone's. Ramal is a weak MPP but is well-liked. Conservative is well-known but polarizing, particularly in a semi-lefty area of town. NDP candidate is a nobody in an area ripe for a razor-thin NDP win. This is the kind of riding where Horwath’s serious deficiency in debates could harm her. London-Fanshawe, provincially, isn’t an NDP lock. All three parties have a chance. That means it is the type of riding that can lean NDP if given the right reasons. Teresa Armstrong isn’t enough of a reason, and Horwath could tip the balance if she can improve her debate performances (which have always been middling to terrible.)
    11 09 27 w. druer
    Local polling gives NDP 38%, PCs 29%, Liberals 23.5%, with only 9 days left there is no way the Liberals are going to close a 14.5% gap!
    This was reported in the London Free Press, on AM1290 radio, and on the CTV local evening news, so expect the Liberal vote to collapse even further and the NDP numbers to solidify now that people know they are voting for a winner.
    11 09 27 Gone Fishing
    S.L. I am not saying Liberals will ‘lend a vote’ to the NDP nor that they did for Mathyssen. If I was unclear, please allow me to correct myself.
    What I mean is NDP supporters are NO LONGER willing to lend their vote to Liberal candidates as they may have done in the past. This will erode Liberal support in LF and make it possible for the PCs in my view to come up the middle so to speak like Liberals used to do in many riding contests.
    After decades both federally and provincially where the NDP would lose votes to the Liberals because they wanted to block a conservative government from forming (i.e. strategic voting a la Sid Ryan). They are now saying, no we have NDP principals that cannot be bought by smooth talking Liberals and we will no longer vote for someone who isn't in line with our political stripes. I think they are also as uncomfortable in many cases with a Liberal government as they are a conservative one.
    My post meant to cite that the LIBERAl support will soften as the hard fought and committed votes of Mathyssen federally will work in NDP favour here.
    In fact according to the weekend's forum research poll that seems to be the case with the NDP in the lead in this riding and the Liberals third.
    One poll does not make an election (except for the one on e-day) but I think this indicates what I was trying to say.
    NDP support is no longer apt to go to the Liberals in the dying days of a campaign. BECAUSE of how NDP members feel Mathyssen has served them well in Ottawa.
    The question remains will enough NDP support galvanize to propel Armstrong forward or will it be just weak enough that the PCs receive the advantage.
    In either case we are talking about moving 4000 votes. If a split occurs the PCs may pick up some of these but also a lot of PC voters stayed home in 2007 to show their disdain for the miserable John Tory campaign.
    I say go get them if you guys can but I think it's possible either party will unseat the incumbent though just now the editors have called this one NDP.
    11 09 26 TJ
    The NDP's federal success in the riding will mean more support for ground operations for the provincial campaign. Fanshawe will be an NDP pickup.
    11 09 24 A.S.
    I can't say there's necessarily a Tory vote cap in Fanshawe--federally speaking, had Irene Mathyssen not existed, their (presumably winning) share'd be significantly higher. (Though conversely, the ‘more conservative provincially than federally’ logic doesn't quite compute, either--or at least it doesn't completely account for the divided-right-vs-Mike-Harris circumstance. Besides, back in the David Peterson years, this turf was more *Liberal* provincially than federally.) In any case, Fanshawe remains as classically three-way now as in '03 and (at least on paper, given that Ramal had a double-digit-plus advantage over his opponents) '07--for all anyone knows, London's lowest PC share could yield London's only PC seat...
    11 09 24 S.L.
    the idea that Liberal voters ‘lend their vote’ to MP Mathyssen doesn't hold much weight, she's been elected 3 times running with bigger vote support every time. from what i've been hearing both at work and in the neighbourhood, this is an NDP stronghold that just has a left over Liberal they are waiting to replace with an NDPer. if being a city councillor mattered, those lended Liberal votes should have gone to Roger Caranci, they did not. Liberal fortunes have been on the decline in this riding for the past 5 years, NDP continues to trend up and Conservatives have a core vote, but they don't grow beyond it because they alienate many people. Three doors down my neighbour had a big Conservative sign in the federal election, and an NDP sign has shown up this time. I asked him why the change and the answer was ‘whatever it takes to beat the Liberals, around here that seems to be the orange team’. Strategic voting working in their favour, expect the NDP to take this one while the Liberals and PCs fight over 2nd place.
    11 09 24 Double J
    The Tories are counting on Teresa Armstrong of the NDP splitting the Liberal vote enough for Cheryl Miller to win London Fanshawe. I've been surprised just how weak the NDP campaign has been in this riding. The party seems to be focussed somewhere else in London. For this reason I say Ramal will hang.
    11 09 23 AD
    I think there are two assumptions everyone can agree on: it will be a three-way race, and a close one to boot. Not sure how popular Cheryl Miller is but with vote splitting I predict a PC win if on party name alone.
    11 09 21 Gone Fishing
    I see three things happening here, 1) NDP leaners will not lend their vote to the Liberals but will come out as they do for Irene Matheyson to a degree. 2) Liberal resources in the area will be invested in keeping Chris Bentley in London West and Deb Mathews in London North. Both the Minister of Health Demotion and the Attorney General are likely to hold their seats but the party can't take that for granted where 40% of western Ontarians are polling PC. 3) Cheryl Miller will ride a well earned reputation to come up the middle and win here, convincingly but not handily.
    11 09 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    This will be a 3 way race that will all come down to which party has the momentum going into the election. The Liberals have the big mo' right now, and that's why I like their chances. The Tories probably have the least chance of winning this working class riding, as their vote is capped in the low 30s, and would have to benefit from a perfect vote split between the Liberals and the NDP.
    11 09 12
    Khalil Ramal is the weakest MPP in the London area, and he's the most likely not be relected. With a NDP MP, this riding will flip to the PCs here, as Cheryl Miller has great name recognition.
    11 09 10 MHB
    This will be ultra close but Ramal is a good constituency worker and has the support of the teachers. I say he wins by less than 100 votes.
    11 09 09 w.druer
    living in the riding, now a few days into the election, it looks like the NDP really has a strong campaign on the go and appear to be the frontrunners here. a drive through the riding, something I have to do every day to get to work shows a distinct orange surge. while every party has signs on corners, front yard of people's homes, the NDP has visibly more support from actual people than the other parties put together. Lots of people on here seem to think Miller can win simply because she was a city councilor, that isn't much of an advantage when Armstrong is herself the wife of a several term incumbent city councillor in the east end. while that may not always be an advantage, Armstrong was one of those spouses that was actively involved herself. add to that the advantage the NDP has in MP Irene Mathyssen being re-elected just months ago with more support than ever, even a relatively small collapse in Liberal support is likely to translate into an NDP victory with the Conservatives and Liberals probably neck and neck for second and third.
    11 09 08 jack@gmail.com
    11 08 09 binriso
    Could be another good 3-way race here, and as of now Id say the Liberals would be in 3rd. More plausible to think either the PCs or NDP will squeak this one out as things stand now, slight advantage to the NDP considering the PCs have a lot more target ridings in the area to focus on potentially winning.
    11 07 19 B.O.
    This riding is way to close to call. While it is hard to see a riding that gave the NDP over 50% of the vote in the recent federal election going Conservative provincially, it is important to remember that this riding with the exact same boundaries went Conservative in the 1999 provincial election. Despite the strong NDP win federally, it would not be a shock if this riding went Conservative provincially again because based on all recent federal and provincial results in this riding, London--Fanshawe is more Conservative provincially than it is federally. In the 1999 provincial election, the Conservative vote was 6.5 points below the provincewide average. In the 2003 provincial election, the riding actually trended Conservative compared to the provincewide trend and the Conservative vote went down to being only 4 points below the provincewide average. In the 2007 provincial election, the Conservative vote was again only 4 points below the provincewide average. Compare these results to federal results in this riding occurring after the creation of the united right Conservative party. In the 2004 federal election, the Conservative vote in London-Fanshawe was 5 points below the provincial average and only 3 points below the national average. After 2004, however, London-Fanshawe began to trend away from the Conservatives federally. In the 2006 federal election, the Conservative vote was 6 points below the provincial average and 7 points below the national average. This was a massive trending away from the federal Conservative party. In the 2008 federal election, the Conservative vote was an even more distant 8 points below the provincial average and was again 7 points below the national average. In the 2011 federal election, the riding trended away from the Conservatives even further. In the 2011 federal election, the Conservative vote in this riding was a large 10.9 points below the provincial average while staying in the same ballpark compared to the national average when comparing 2008 and 2011(the Conservative vote was 6 points below the national average).
    Thus this riding is clearly more Conservative provincially than it is federally and as a result we could have a federal NDP MP represent this riding while simultaneously a Tory MPP represents the riding. But this won't happen necessarily. It depends on how the provincial election goes in the fall.
    11 07 19 R.O.
    This is one of the swing ridings the liberals picked up in 2003 its really tough to say where its headed. the provincial ndp has a base in the riding but isn't as popular as federal party . if it doesn't stay liberal its more likely to go pc as they have a strong candidate in Cheryl Miller and previously held this riding when in power. they may also benefit from significant vote spliting on the left. i'd say were in for a long race in this riding before there is a clear winner.
    11 06 21 seasaw
    The McGuinty Liberals are in trouble. Not only are they trailing the Tories, Dalton's approval rating is the lowest of any Ontario premiers since Bob Rae. Also, a poll showed that 76% of Ontarians would like to see another party in power. If things don't change drastically, they'll lose this seat along with many others. This seat will go NDP long before it goes Tory. The Tories have a better shot @ London West and North Centre. Fanshawe will go NDP.
    11 05 23 LondonMike
    This will be a two way race between the NDP and the Liberals. Cheryl Miller, running for the Conservatives, is a former councillor. If being a former councillor translated into popularity, then Roger Caranci would have got more than 11% of the vote in the federal election. The incumbent, an Arabic man, is popular in this riding, which has a large Arabic population.
    11 04 02 In the Know
    The incumbent is a nice guy. Miller was one of the nastiest members of the past London city council. Spent like a drunken sailor while undermining others. Turned on the former Mayor. Wonder what she will do to Hudak?
    11 02 28 Mark R
    This will be one of the closest 3-way races on Ontario and I expect that the NDP will put resources behind 20 seats and this will be one of them. The Liberals don't stand a chance of re-electing either the incumbent or anyone else. NDP win by 450 votes.
    11 02 20 More Knowledge
    Cheryl Miller is a popular and experienced local politician running to replace Khalil Ramal. While Khalil has done a respectable job as a backbencher he will be extremely vulnerable. Expect the Conservatives to pick up this riding.

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