Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Mississauga-Streetsville


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Ayad, Raed

Delaney, Bob

Sunbaty, Wafik

Warner, Scott

Incumbent:
Bob Delaney

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * BOB DELANEY
    20,26452.55%
    NINA TANGRI
    11,15528.93%
    GAIL MCCABE
    3,94410.23%
    SCOTT WARNER
    2,9257.59%
    MASOOD ATCHEKZAI
    2740.71%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1749348.19%
    1428239.34%
    281607.75%


  •  


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    11 09 26 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    204.187.16.140
    Agreeing with AS' assessment but we'd go as far as to call it Liberal. If you believe recent polls, province wide the Liberals and PC are tied or almost tied. Much of the Liberal support is concentrated int he GTA. Include the fact that this is not an open seat and we'd argue that this will stay Liberal.
    11 09 21 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Keep in mind that of all the PC entries thus far, only one hasn't been by ‘Art’ or ‘SW’--and that Miss-Streetsville has a bit of an EPP history of heavy Conservative plumping on behalf of Nina Tangri or whomever else. Despite that, and despite Delaney's nearly 2:1 win last time, I'd deem him ‘generically vulnerable’, simply because the 905's like that.
    11 09 21 AD
    24.246.31.39
    Wow, a lot of people are predicting Liberal but I am not convinced. CEA was right in pointing out the incumbants 9000 vote lead. I can't see it diminishing enough and the conservative vote rising enough to accomplish a PC win. At least under current polling conditions. Admittingly a rise in NDP vote over the PCs could cause this, but the latest batch of polls by Angus Reid and Ledger had regional data and don't show that much of an increase in NDP vote in this area. I predict LPO hold.
    11 09 20 Art
    174.95.61.177
    Pretty much everything about this riding has already been said. Whether voters get it remains to be seen. These voters ditched Crombie/Iggy. If it comes down to election day the Libs will not have the ground troops to pull their vote ------------- PCs have the most committed voters and ground troops. Should swing PC.
    11 09 18 Art
    174.95.59.65
    East side of this riding is crawling with NDP signs outnumbering Libs. Cons will drive the rest across the finish line.
    11 08 27 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    This one is a tough call , liberals did great here in 07 but there numbers for that election are better than they really should of been . they give off an impression of liberal dominance when alot of the ridings are much more in play this year. but Wafik Sunbaty isn't a high profile candidate for the Ontario pc's and not really sure he can take the riding unless Tim Hudak does really good in the final weeks. But Bob Delaney is most definity facing one of the toughest elections he had been in so far .
    11 08 15 Art
    174.95.68.121
    One of the last incumbent nominations with 60 days to go until election day. And, just before that the OLP posts that Delaney has a brand new riding president. It appears the NEW president is a close buddy of George Smitherman. This Delaney is in serious trouble. Looks like the party is positioning itself for a post election agenda without Delaney. Jeoff360 is spot on. Time to get off the fence. Press PC.
    11 08 14 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    I guess I'll be the first to say the Liberals should be able to pick this seat up. I don't know much about Delaney, so I can't say whether or not he is popular, but if he was so unpopular last time, then how did he manage a massive 9,000 vote victory? At current polling levels, the same thing that kept the Tories down in 2007 may keep them down again in 2011.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    69.165.140.179
    Bob Delaney is the Carol Mitchell of McGuinty's suburban caucus. He was written-off by his own party during the last election, only to have John Tory's school funding gaffes save him from certain defeat. Not well liked, not particularly competent, not high profile ... he's toast.
    11 05 09 Art
    174.95.56.75
    Mr. Delaney is HOME ALONE. His riding buddy, Ms. Crombie MP is now defeated. Mr. Delaney's riding posted negative cash flow in 2009 ---- not a winning combination. Re-boot as PC.
    11 03 23 Art
    174.91.79.235
    Rumour on the street is that a well-known and respected city councilor, George Carlson of Streetsville, might be interested in taking over the Provincial Liberal reins from the floundering incumbent. If anyone could turn this riding around for the Libs it would be this popular and experienced official with multiple years of experience as a school board trustee and city councilor. Hail Mary pass for the Libs or this riding will go over to the PC side.
    11 03 15 Art
    174.91.79.69
    Press PC. This guy is gone. Broke riding. Disappearing local Liberal supporters. Disinterest from the downtown organizers. A definite loss for the Liberals in Peel.
    11 03 11 SW
    76.68.76.77
    What does Bob Delaney, Member for Mississauga Streetsville and Sandra Pupatello, Member Windsor West have in common?
    A-Snappy wardrobe, B- Nice smile, C-Good to their mother, or D. Most often Called to Order, by the Speaker of the House, for inappropriate language?
    If you guessed A, B or C; well, your entitled to your opinion.
    If you chose D; your are correct. For the latest reprimand issued to The Member for Mississauga Streetsville go to the Hansard for Thursday March 10, 2011, Members Statements plus or minus 1320 to 1340. You can read examples of one time Bob was Called to Order; and another where he got it away with it.
    http://www.ontla.on.ca/web/house-proceedings/house_detail.do?locale=en&Date=2011-03-10&detailPage=%2Fhouse-proceedings%2Ftranscripts%2Ffiles_html%2F10-MAR-2011_L093.htm&Parl=39&Sess=2#tidyout
    The Ontario Liberal Party should consider putting him on political suicide watch. This cat’s running out of lives.
    11 03 10 Art
    174.95.66.11
    Lots of Liberals will stay home on election-day, if the downtown boys allow this guy to run again. It's a swing riding. First PC pick up in Peel.
    11 03 09 SW
    76.68.76.77
    Delaney’s camp is running on fumes; chloroform that is, not anything of a petroleum product left in his tank.
    Lambasting, alienating and/or threatening to sue current and/or past supporters is no way to make friends and influence people. His personal website; is often mistaken for his Constituency Office Government of Ontario website; because Bob Delaney constantly advertises the links to his website in the Mississauga News. On his PERSONAL website is the GOVERNMENT OF ONTARIO LOGO. On his personal website he offers up veiled threats of filing Statements of Claim against ‘certain persons’ that he and Andrea (his wife) are aware of. It is difficult to be certain; but I think he might be referring to the alleged whistle blowers; who may or may not have been, in part, responsible for both the Provincial and Federal Governments pulling the funding from his wife’s settlement services agency.
    After the last Municipal Elections; Bob no longer has any of ‘the City Folk’ to lean on either.
    Provincial or Federal support from past and present candidates is also unlikely; except maybe from Crombie; but she is going to have problems of her own; and seems only to tolerate Bob when he can be useful to her.
    All in all; it is at the moment a difficult one to call. Delaney’s only strengths are the other candidates’ weaknesses. Name recognition, and an easy to remember name, are pretty much Bob’s greatest assets.
    And he is quite articulate; even though he is usually full of shit; he can say it well.
    11 02 23 Art
    174.91.78.205
    PCs have a new Candidate. Coptic fellow; engineer with lots of enthusiastic support and a vast ability to raise campaign money. Incumbent has weak organization, limited financial support and lots of bad press surfacing. Likely a PC pick-up.



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