Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Newmarket-Aurora


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bisanz, Christina

Klees, Frank

Kuysten, Kristopher

Wardlaw, Robin

Incumbent:
Frank Klees

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * FRANK KLEES
    19,46042.72%
    CHRISTINA BISANZ
    18,10539.74%
    JOHN MCROGERS
    4,1829.18%
    MIKE SEAWARD
    3,2907.22%
    CRAIG HODGINS
    2690.59%
    TAD BRUDZINSKI
    2490.55%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1813845.33%
    1684442.10%
    304507.61%


  •  


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    11 10 02 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Update to prediction , went on a drive thru this riding and a couple others , definity alot more Frank Klees signs up then other candidates. the forum poll also had this riding as an easy Ontario pc hold . don't really know why Christina Bisanz decided to run again especially when considering liberals less popular than in 07. maybe they though the riding was becoming more liberal and although there has been alot of new growth here i don't think liberals could really win it unless pc's had really weak candidate.
    11 09 22 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Newmarket-Aurora is still largely on the far side of the 905-ethnoburban DMZ; but even if it were incrementally ?diversifying?, keep in mind that as provincial leadership candidates go, Klees had the most clout among the ?Jason Kenney? ethno-Tory demo. (Representing big slabs of York Region will do that to a person.) It was close for Klees in '07; given trends, it should be less close now.
    11 09 19 AD
    24.246.31.39
    I grew up in this riding, and it's been pretty Conservative far as I can remember. It was close in 2007. With an incumbant, the Conservatives doing well in the 905 region (see the latest Angus Reid poll), and the fact this region is completely full of the type of suburbs the PC party has been cleaning up in tells me this is probably going to go PC.
    11 07 18
    173.34.22.93
    Lois Brown was easily re-elected in this riding during the recent federal election. Klees will win by at least 10,000 votes this time.
    11 07 12 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Although this riding was close in 2007 Frank Klees should be able to hold it with an increased margin this time. liberals don't seem to be as popular as they were in past 2 elections. combine that with Frank Klees performance as an mpp and strong profile at queens park among pc caucus . i don't think there is much doubt that he is going to be returned to queens park.
    11 02 25 wyatt
    24.235.153.34
    Having been in the Legislature since 1995, and taken two very strong runs for the party leadership, Klees will hold this riding. He also has a Conservative colleague representing the riding in Ottawa, something that wasn't the case last time around.



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